10:45 AM | *The tropics remain alive and kicking and signs point to a potential system near the east coast in 7-10 days…overall warm pattern in eastern US can flip for mid and late November*

Tropical Storm “Martin” will become a powerful “extratropical” storm in coming days over the North Atlantic and it can eventually head to the east and have an impact on the UK in western Europe. Map courtesy weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue, Twitter), ECMWF

Overview

The tropical scene is still active and kicking in the Atlantic Basin as we begin the month of November with a couple systems to currently monitor and signs point to the possibility of another system near the east coast in about 7-10 days. Tropical Storm “Martin” - soon to be Hurricane “Martin” - is located well out over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and will become a powerful “extratropical” storm in the North Atlantic later this week.  “Lisa” is now a category 1 hurricane and is closing in on Belize in Central America and could ultimately emerge over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, the overall pattern looks to remain warmer-than-normal across the eastern US during the next 7-10 days, but important changes can come in terms of temperatures for the middle and latter parts of November.

Tropical Storm “Martin” and Hurricane “Lisa” are two systems to monitor in coming days as the Atlantic Basin tropical season continues into the month of November. Map courtesy NOAA/National Hurricane Center

Tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin

“Martin” is a strong tropical storm out over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean and is likely to strengthen into hurricane status over the next 12-24 hours as it treks into the North Atlantic.  If indeed “Martin” becomes a hurricane in the short term, it would be the first time since 2001 that two hurricanes existed in the Atlantic Basin during the month of November (prior to that year was 1932). Tropical Storm “Martin” is currently moving in an east-to-northeast direction and will turn more northward as it accelerates over the next day or so and becomes “captured” by an amplifying upper-level trough of low pressure. The merging of “Martin” and the upper-level trough will result in a powerful “extratropical” storm later this week with winds potentially gusting to 90 mph or so.  Eventually, the remnants of “Martin” are likely to push eastward and it can ultimately have an impact on the United Kingdom in the western part of Europe.

Meanwhile, far away from “Martin” to its south and west, “Lisa” has reached category 1 status as it closes in on the country of Belize in Central America.  After landfall, Hurricane “Lisa” should weaken as it crosses Belize into the southeastern part of Mexico.  The center of “Lisa” could then emerge over the Bay of Campeche, but wind shear is likely to inhibit any chances for this system to re-intensify significantly during that time period.

Looking ahead, there are signs that another tropical system could form over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later next week and it could become a threat for the east coast in about 7-10 days or so…likely in the region from Florida to the Carolinas.  The water is still quite warm over the southwestern Atlantic and it can still support the formation and intensification of tropical systems despite that fact that we are now into the month of November.

The next 7-10 days or so will remain quite warm across the eastern half of the nation and quite chilly across the western US (left plot), but the pattern may change during the second half of November with colder air masses making advances in the eastern states. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Temperature pattern across the nation

The overall weather pattern will generally remain on the warm side of normal in the eastern states during the next 7-10 days and on the colder side across the western US.  In fact, a strong frontal system in the central US by week’s end will separate quite warm air to the east and very cold air to the west and the “clash” can result in severe thunderstorm activity from Texas/Oklahoma to the central Plains. Looking ahead, there are signs that the overall pattern could flip later this month allowing for the arrival of colder-than-normal air masses into the eastern states as we progress through the middle and latter parts of November.

The teleconnection index known as the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is predicted to flip from positive-to-negative by mid-November and this is often correlation with widespread cooling in central and eastern North America. Plot courtesy NOAA, Weather Bell Analytics

One indicator of a potential flip in the overall temperature pattern across the nation around mid-month comes from the forecasted trend of the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO).  This teleconnection index is expected to flip from positive-to-negative territory by the second half of the month. The negative phase of the EPO tends to be correlated with widespread cooling over central and eastern North America with strong ridging forming over Alaska and the northeastern Pacific and an upper-level trough of low pressure to form over the central/eastern parts of US and Canada.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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