12:30 PM | **Active pattern setting up with multiple storm threats in coming days…possible severe weather outbreak in the Lower MS Valley next week**
Paul Dorian
Much of the nation could feature colder-than-normal conditions by late next week following the passage of a strong cold front that will sweep eastward during the week. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The overall weather pattern will be quite active from this weekend through next week with multiple storm threats in the northeastern US and a possible severe weather threat around Tuesday of next week in the Lower Mississippi Valley. Cold air is trying to work its way into the northeastern US on a consistent basis, but likely won’t be able to until later next week. Nonetheless, there will be enough cold air around for a likely Sunday/Monday storm threat to at least produce a chance of accumulating snow in the northeastern states. Another storm system will likely arrive in the eastern states by the middle of next week and there may be enough cold air around for some frozen precipitation at the onset in portions of the Northeast US. More sustained cold air will follow later next week.
A storm system could produce accumulating snow from Sunday into Monday across some of the higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
It is rather tranquil across the nation today, but there will be multiple storm systems to deal with in coming days and one of these can result in a severe weather outbreak across the Lower Mississippi Valley by the middle of next week. On Friday morning, weak low pressure will push across the Midwest producing some snow in its cold sector and rain to its south and east. This system will tend to weaken even further by the time it reaches the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday with little in the way of precipitation expected.
On Saturday, another system will develop across the central part of the nation with limited cold air to work with in that part of the nation and it will slide eastward into the Ohio Valley by early Sunday. This system will encounter enough cold air by mid-day Sunday for snow to break out in some of the higher elevation interior locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. By Sunday night, the surface low will intensify as it moves off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and can loop around for awhile due to a blocking pattern in the atmosphere over the Hudson Bay region of Canada. This system does have the potential of putting down several inches of snow in some of the higher elevation, interior locations of the Mid-Atlantic/NE US and is something to monitor over the next few days – even with somewhat limited cold air.
Another system reaches the eastern states by the middle of next week. This system may feature some frozen precipitation in spots at its onset, but rain should become the dominate precipitation type in the Mid-Atlantic. Colder air will follow for the late week. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
By Tuesday of next week, another storm system will intensify over the central Plains. This system will have all the ingredients to raise the threat of severe weather in its warm sector on Tuesday in places like the Lower Mississippi Valley – perhaps even to include the threat of tornadoes. In the cold sector, a blizzard may develop with significant accumulating snow and powerful winds by later Tuesday across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
A possible severe weather threat next Tuesday could even include tornadoes; especially, across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Map courtesy NOAA/GFS
The precipitation from this system may then sweep eastward into the Mid-Atlantic/NE Us by the middle of next week and there can be enough residual cold air around for an initial burst of frozen precipitation in some spots. Ultimately, rain is likely to be the dominate form of precipitation in this mid-week system in the Mid-Atlantic region, but something to monitor in case “re-development” takes place of surface low pressure neat the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Following the passage of the associated cold front, colder air will push into the eastern US late next week and this could begin the (delayed) onset of a more sustained colder-than-normal weather pattern for the central and eastern states.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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