10:15 AM | ***Powerful winds late tomorrow night into early Friday associated with strong front…time period of most concern is immediately following the passage of the front with a pressure surge***
Paul Dorian
A low-level jet will increase notably in strength later tomorrow night and this is a cause of concern; especially, along coastal sections from Virginia-to-Maine. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
It looks like there will be a very active frontal passage in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later tomorrow night into early Friday. Temperatures will surge on Thursday ahead of the strong cold front and showers will become numerous on Thursday night. In fact, some of the rain can briefly fall on the heavy side later tomorrow night into early Friday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture.
Of more concern, however, is the likelihood for powerful winds and there can be potentially damaging wind gusts with scattered power outages certainly on the table. The likely time period of greatest concern will be in the hour or two immediately following the passage of the surface cold front associated with an expected surge in pressure and a shift in wind direction. The likely location of greatest concern for these possible damaging wind gusts will be along coastal sections from Virginia-to-Maine. Moderately chilly air will follow the early Friday frontal passage and then a reinforcing shot of cold arrives on Saturday supported by a strong wave aloft that can result in snow shower activity across the northeastern states.
This active frontal system and its associated low pressure will likely result in some severe weather over the next couple of days in its warm sector. That threat will push from the south-central states later today and tonight (left) into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday and Thursday night (right) including an “enhanced” risk of severe weather from Nashville, Tennessee to Huntsville, Alabama. Maps courtesy NOAA/SPC
Details
Low pressure and its associated strong cold front will wreak havoc on a good part of the nation over the next few days as it travels from the south-central states to northern New England. The intensifying low pressure system will produce widely varying conditions from substantial accumulating snow on its cold side to severe weather in its warm sector. The heaviest snowfall over the next few days looks like it will extend from eastern Kansas to northern Maine with some accumulations likely in the big Midwestern cities of St. Louis, Chicago and Detroit.
In the warm sector, the threat for severe weather will be greatest later today and tonight in the south-central states of Texas and Oklahoma and then in the region extending from the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic coastline from later tomorrow into Thursday night. An “enhanced” risk of severe weather later tomorrow will exist in the zone from Nashville, Tennessee to Huntsville, Alabama and this includes the possibility of isolated tornadoes.
The surface cold front is likely to slide across the immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC between around 4 and 10 am. A possible time period for excessive wind gusts will be in the hour or two immediately behind the passage of the front as the pressure surges and the wind shifts in direction. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.,com
In the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, the biggest concern with this active frontal system will be the winds which will increase in strength on Thursday and then become quite powerful - and potentially damaging - late tomorrow night into early Friday. During the day on Thursday, winds are likely to increase in strengthen from a south-to-southwest direction and gust in the range of 30-40 mph. On Thursday night, the low-level jet increases noticeably in strength from a southwesterly direction and this is a cause of concern with respect to the potential of damaging wind gusts. In the worst case scenario, projections suggest winds can increase to 60+ mph late tomorrow night into early Friday; especially, along the eastern seaboard from Virginia-to-Maine and scattered power outages are certainly on the table.
Much of the Midwest is in store for a good snowstorm over the next couple of days with significant amounts in some sections. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Perhaps the time of greatest concern will be the hour or two immediately following the passage of the strong surface cold front as there should be a surge in pressure and a shift in direction to the west-northwest. Sometimes mixing in the atmosphere becomes more efficient in this time period immediately following the passage of the surface cold front. The timing of the frontal passage in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is likely between about 4 AM and 10 AM. There will be a surge in temperatures on Thursday ahead of the advancing front and showers will become numerous tomorrow night. In fact, some of the rain can briefly fall heavily in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture.
A reinforcing shot of cold will arrive on Saturday and it will be supported by a vigorous wave aloft possibly resulting in snow showers and even snow squalls across parts of the northeastern states. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Looking ahead, temperatures are likely to drop during the day in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with the very strong winds of the morning easing somewhat in the afternoon. A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives on Saturday and while its available moisture will be limited, it will be supported by a vigorous wave aloft. As a result, snow showers cannot be ruled out for Saturday in parts of the northeastern quadrant of the nation – perhaps even a few heavier snow squalls.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com