9:00 AM | *An early hurricane threat for the Gulf of Mexico region...this threat comes despite more cold air outbreaks for the US and even significant accumulating snow in the Rockies*
Paul Dorian
Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico would likely be able to support the formation of a tropical storm or hurricane later this month. Map courtesy NOAA, tropiocaltidbits.com
Overview
There are still cold air outbreaks destined to push into the US from Canada as we progress through the second half of May and even accumulating snow for the Rockies, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have a threat of a hurricane. In fact, there are signs that the atmosphere will become supportive of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico region later this month or early in June in what is likely to be an active season for the Atlantic Basin.
This long-range surface forecast map by the 00Z GFS is way out there in the “speculation” time period (for May 29th); however, I believe it is latching onto something that is real and could result in a hurricane around Memorial Day weekend. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
The last ten days of May is quite likely going to turn out to be cooler-than-normal across much of the nation and in some areas, much cooler-than-normal. In fact, there is likely to be accumulating snow in this time period across the Rocky Mountain States with several inches of late season snowfall on the table for the Colorado Rockies. It is not unprecedented, however, to have tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin at the same time much of the US is cooler-than-normal. Indeed, there are signs that a hurricane could threaten the Gulf of Mexico region by the time we get to the Memorial Day weekend or during the first week of June.
The ten day period from May 20th to May 30th is likely to average colder-than-normal across much of the nation, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be some tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Map courtesy Weather Bell Analytics, NOAA
While upper-level troughiness and cooler-than-normal conditions will dominate the northern US during the last ten days of May, high pressure ridging is likely to be the main weather feature across the southern states. By later next week, low pressure is likely to develop in the Caribbean Sea and it could very well intensify and turn to the north towards the Gulf of Mexico late in May or early in June as this high pressure ridging aloft sets up across the southern states.
The total snowfall for the next ten days as depicted here by the 00Z GFS model run will be quite significant in the Colorado Rockies. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
By the time we get to the end of the month, this potential tropical system could strengthen enough to become the first named storm of the season (would be “Alex”) and perhaps even into hurricane status somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures are generally well above-normal in the Gulf of Mexico and this kind of pattern should be able to be supportive of tropical activity.
Here is the list of names to be used this year by NOAA in the naming of Atlantic Basin tropical systems that reach “storm” status.
Looking ahead, the tropical season officially gets underway on June 1st in the Atlantic Basin and it is likely to be an above-normal year with more named tropical storms than average. The dominate feature affecting this year’s tropical season is likely to be La Nina in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean which is correlated with cooler-than-normal water. This is the same kind of pattern that occurred during the last two tropical seasons and it usually is a favorable pattern for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin (and unfavorable in the Pacific Ocean). For more detailed information on the outlook for the summer and tropical season, check out the Arcfield Weather post and get ready…tropical activity may get underway early this season.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com