11:45 AM | *Showers and possible strong-to-severe storms on Friday/Friday night in the Mid-Atlantic region…holiday weekend starts off shaky, but should end well*
Paul Dorian
Overview
A strong frontal system will produce another round of showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and some of the storms can be on the strong-to-severe side. The upper-level support for this system will be slow-moving and could result in some residual shower activity on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region as it drifts overhead. This upper-level low will exit off the coast on Sunday resulting in improvement and then the weather on Monday, Memorial Day, should feature plenty of sunshine and highs in the 80’s.
There is the threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity late Friday/Friday night in the Mid-Atlantic region associated with the next incoming frontal system. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
The weather remains rather tranquil today in the Mid-Atlantic region and will be again on Thursday, but it becomes quite active on Friday with the approach of a cold frontal system. The surface cold front will be supported by a pretty vigorous wave of energy aloft and the result is likely to be numerous showers from Friday into Friday night along with the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorms. Southerly low-level flow will advect increasingly humid air into the region from the Gulf of Mexico and dew point temperatures will likely climb as high as the upper 60’s or even lower 70’s in portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The combination of warmth, high humidity, low pressure aloft, and an approaching strong surface front will lead to an unstable atmosphere and bands of strong storms are likely to form by early afternoon and intensify into the peak heating time of day (i.e., late afternoon, evening). The severe weather threats that are on the table include locally strong-to-damaging wind gusts and “flash flooding” type downpours.
The weekend weather will start off unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region as a mid-level low edges its way overhead in a west-to-east fashion. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
The holiday weekend looks like it will start off unsettled as the slow-moving mid-level low will push overhead on Saturday leading to lingering instability and the possibility of showers and even scattered thunderstorms. The best chance for the rainfall on Saturday is likely to be during the PM hours (i.e., during the warmest time of the day).
This upper-level system will weaken by Sunday and continue to edge to the east and overall conditions will improve for the second half of the weekend with lower probabilities for showers. High pressure builds in by early next week and the holiday itself on Monday is likely to feature plenty of sunshine and quite warm conditions. After flirting with the 80 degree mark on Sunday, temperatures could climb into the low-to-middle 80’s on Memorial Day all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com