11:30 AM | *A fall-like weekend in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Great Lakes…some active weather before we get there…stays very hot south-central US/Midwest/Southeast US*
Paul Dorian
A spectacular air mass for mid-June will pour into the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US this weekend with very comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
A couple of cold fronts will usher in a spectacular air mass for this time of year to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Great Lakes just in time for the upcoming Father’s Day weekend. There will be some active weather, however, before we get to that point with the threat of showers and strong thunderstorms from late tonight into early tomorrow morning and then again on Thursday evening in association with an initial cold frontal system. In addition, there can be another shower or thunderstorm on Friday as a secondary cold front arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong high pressure will then take control of the weather for the weekend…a system that had its origins up in northern Canada. Elsewhere, intense heat will continue to affect the region from the south-central states-to-the Midwest-to-the Southeast US over the next several days and some of this hot air will try to make an advance into the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week.
The weekend will feature cooler-than-normal air masses over the western US and the northeastern states with upper-level lows dominating those areas and the middle of the country will experience hot weather as strong ridging persists in that part of the US. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Details
The Mid-Atlantic region has enjoyed several comfortable air masses this spring season, but many of them have arrived during the work week. The next comfortable air mass coming to this area looks like it will be perfectly timed with the likelihood for a great stretch of weather from Saturday into Monday. Before we get to that point, however, there is likely to be more active weather anytime from from late tonight into the day on Friday.
It’ll take the passage of a couple of cold fronts to usher in the very comfortable air mass for the weekend in the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Maps of initial cold front (left) and secondary cold front (right) courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
An upper-level disturbance will move east later tonight from the eastern Great Lakes and this feature is likely to generate some shower and thunderstorms. In fact, some of the storms that form later tonight can be on the strong side with possible arrival time in the I-95 corridor within a couple hours of daybreak. There can then be a lull in the activity from later tomorrow morning through much of the afternoon, but then additional showers and thunderstorms are a threat on Thursday evening associated with the arrival of an initial cold front. Some of those Thursday evening thunderstorms can be on the strong side. A secondary cold front arrives later Friday and it too can spark a shower or thunderstorm in the Mid-Atlantic region.
Strong thunderstorms are a possibility in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region later tonight into early tomorrow and then again late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Map courtesy NOAA/SPC
Following the passage of the secondary cold front, a very comfortable air mass will pour into the northeastern quadrant of the nation for the weekend riding in on stiff NW winds. High pressure which had its origins way up in northern Canada will be the anchor for this comfortable air mass both on Saturday and Sunday and it’ll even last into the day on Monday. Temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region will hold in the 70’s for highs despite plenty of sunshine and they’ll drop into the cool 50’s at night. Humidity levels will be low for this time of year with very comfortable dew point readings.
Sustained hot weather has largely avoided the northeastern part of the nation, but there is the chance for a significant warmup by the middle of next week as strong high pressure ridging aloft expands to the north and east. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Meanwhile, very hot weather continues to dominate the scene from the south-central US to the southeastern states as strong high pressure ridging persists in the upper part of the atmosphere. Many spots will come close to triple digit highs over the next couple of days including, for example, Atlanta, Georgia and Huntsville, Alabama and the intense heat will reassert itself early next week. Some of this hot air mass will try to make an advance to the north and east early next week and this puts a significant warm-up on the table for places like Washington, D.C. by next Tuesday or Wednesday. Having said that, wind flow in the upper atmosphere is likely to remain in a northwesterly direction in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US - likely preventing any kind of an extended heat spell around here.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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