2:30 PM | ***”Idalia” likely to reach “major” hurricane status before landfall at mid-week along Florida’s Gulf coast…”Franklin” now a category 4 hurricane to head out to the North Atlantic***
Paul Dorian
Hurricane Franklin (middle, right) has climbed to category 4 “major” status with a well defined eye and symmetrical circulation. At the same time, Tropical Storm Idalia (middle, bottom) located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has shown some strengthening today and is close to being declared a category 1 (minimal) hurricane. Images courtesy NOAA
Overview
Franklin has climbed to category 4 “major” hurricane status and will fortunately spend its time in the foreseeable future over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean. While it does bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda early Wednesday, a deep trough moving off the NE US coastline will help to steer it northeastward and out to the open waters of the North Atlantic Ocean. Meanwhile, “Idalia” has reached strong tropical storm status today and is knocking on the doorstep of being declared a full-fledged hurricane. Tropical Storm Idalia will spill out over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, begin an intensification process, and likely reach the Gulf coast region of Florida early Wednesday to the north of the Tampa Bay region.
NOAA’s forecast map of Hurricane Franklin is shown. This system is now classified as a “major” category 4 status and will pass to the northwest of Bermuda early Wednesday and come under the influence of an upper-level trough over the NE US. Map courtesy NOAA/NHC
Hurricane Franklin
Hurricane Franklin is clicking on all cylinders this afternoon and has climbed all the way to category 4 “major” hurricane status. This system has a well-defined eye, very cold cloud tops, and its central pressure has decreased rapidly now down to 27.66 inches (937 millibars). This powerful hurricane will bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda early Wednesday as it makes its closest approach to the island, but will then become influenced by a deep trough that moves off the NE US coastline. The upper-level trough will help to steer Franklin to the northeast in a broad southwesterly flow of air aloft and this ensures Franklin will spend its foreseeable future out over the open waters of the North Atlantic.
12Z HWRF forecast map of radar reflectivity as of 8AM, Wednesday, August 30th with potential “major” Hurricane Idalia closing in on Florida’s Gulf coast. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Tropical Storm Idalia
As of early afternoon on Monday, Idalia is very close to being declared a category 1 (minimal) hurricane. Tropical Storm Idalia features maximum sustained winds at 70 mph - just shy of the 74 mph winds required for category 1 hurricane declaration - and it has an improved satellite presentation with its center more deeply embedded within deep convection and colder cloud tops. TS Idalia is currently moving northward at 8 mph and an approaching mid-level trough over the central Gulf should cause an acceleration during the next 12-24 hours.
Storm surge could be as high as 7-11 feet above ground level associated with Idalia as it likely reaches major hurricane status. Map courtesy NOAA/NHC
As Idalia pushes over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, upper-level environmental conditions will become more conducive to rapid intensification and a climb to “major” hurricane status (category 3) is certainly on the table before possible landfall early on Wednesday somewhere along Florida’s Gulf coast likely to the north of the Tampa Bay region. There are prospects that storm surge of as much as 7-11 feet above ground level is possible somewhere between the Chassahowitzka and Aucilla Rivers on the expected current track. Note- any small change in the path can make a big difference in exactly where the landfall and highest storm surge will be along Florida’s Gulf coast.
Potential storm surge flooding associated with Tropical Storm Idalia is shown here for the Tampa/Clearwater region.
After likely landfall early Wednesday, Idalia will probably turn to the northeast and be positioned near the GA/SC coastal region by late Wednesday and to just off the Carolina coastline by Thursday. The upper-level trough that pushes off the NE US coastline and helps to steer Franklin to the North Atlantic will “out-run” Idalia and the result could be a meandering system for a couple of days somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As a result, the pressure gradient between the meandering tropical system and strong high pressure to the north may intensify, and that could allow for pretty strong winds to develop and impact places like southeastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula later in the week…stay tuned.
12Z HWRF forecast map of lower atmosphere winds as of 8AM, Wednesday, August 30th with potential “major” Hurricane Idalia closing in on Florida’s Gulf coast. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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