1:10 PM | ***Hurricane Lee to soon take a turn to the north…significant impact in eastern New England this weekend with heavy rains, strong winds…an active tropical scene at climatological peak***
Paul Dorian
The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin season here at mid-September features three systems including Hurricane Lee (category 3), Hurricane Margot (category 1, upper, center), and one additional system in the eastern Atlantic (lower, right). Images courtesy NOAA/GOES-East
Overview
The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is right around this time of year and it is certainly living up to its billing. Lee remains a category 3 “major’ hurricane today and continues to move slowly on a west-northwest track over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. It will soon take a turn to the north as it becomes increasingly influenced by an upper-level trough that will build over the eastern states. Lee will likely have a significant impact on eastern New England this weekend with heavy rains and strong winds as it pushes towards Maine or Nova Scotia as a tropical storm or a “post-tropical” system. Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, Margot has reached hurricane status; however, its future looks rather harmless as it likely weakens on its northward trek to a position over the Northern Atlantic. Another tropical system is located over the eastern Atlantic and it should intensify in coming days as it pushes over some very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic.
Two key players in the ultimate track of Hurricane Lee will be an upper-level trough that is to form over the eastern states and an upper-level ridge that will intensify over the NW Atlantic. The increasing influence of the trough over the eastern US will contribute to a turn to the north of Hurricane Lee at mid-week and the ridge over the NW Atlantic will likely prevent any kind of a harmless path this weekend for Lee to go out to the open waters of the North Atlantic. Map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA
Details
Hurricane Lee has max sustained winds of 115 mph at mid-day and continues to move quite slowly (6 mph) on a west-northwest path as it continues to influenced by a nearby upper-level ridge. This slow trek on a west-to-northwest path over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic will continue for another day or so, but then a turn to the north will take place as Lee becomes increasingly influenced by a building upper-level trough of low pressure over the eastern states. This northward track should take Lee to the west of Bermuda on Thursday and then it’ll begin to move over cooler waters as it climbs to higher latitudes.
By the late week, the upper-level trough over the eastern states may weaken some and an upper-level ridge of high pressure will intensify over the NW Atlantic. This ridge will indeed play a critical role in the ultimate path of Lee as it will likely inhibit any chance for Lee to escape harmlessly out to the open waters of the North Atlantic. Instead, Lee may actually take a bit of a turn back to the northwest for a brief time early this weekend and this will increase chances for impacts on eastern New England and Nova Scotia with heavy rains and strong winds on the table.
Hurricane Lee remains over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic; however, late in the week, it’ll climb to higher latitudes and travel over cooler waters. Map of current sea surface temperatures courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA
Given the expected movement of Lee over cooler waters of the western Atlantic Ocean late this week, it is likely to weaken from current “major” hurricane levels to tropical storm or “post-tropical” status just before potentially reaching Maine/Nova Scotia. However, impact in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada can still be significant with heavy rains and strong winds as the overall wind field will tend to “spread out” compared to current levels as Lee reaches higher latitudes.
Climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin season is right around the middle of September and it is living up to its billing this year. Data courtesy NOAA
Looking down the road, there is another tropical system in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that has the likelihood of intensifying in coming days as it treks across the tropical Atlantic. There are some signs that this system may ultimately pose a threat to the Northeast US, but that is all in the “speculation phase” right now and there are many days to go to iron out those details. An interesting thing to monitor in coming days will be to see if the passage of Hurricane Lee generates a “cold wake” (through upwelling) that could ultimately have an impact on the next tropical system.
The mid-September climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin season is certainly living up to its billing in 2023.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com