12:15 PM | ****Intense cold…Midwest/Great Lakes blizzard…Mid-Atlantic/NE US heavy rain, strong winds…impact on playoff games…accumulating snow threat(s) next week I-95 corridor****

A key ingredient to a potential storm system off the east coast during the early-to-middle of next week will be a strong upper-level jet streak as seen here in this forecast map by the 12Z GFS. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

Arctic air is now sliding into the northern US from western Canada and this cold air outbreak will likely become big weather news in coming days as it spreads across the nation. Indeed, the Arctic air will push all the way south to the Lower Rio Grande Valley region of Texas over the next few days and much colder air will advance eastward to the east coast by the end of the upcoming weekend. Another big weather story will be the next powerful storm system that will generate a blizzard for much of the Midwest and Great Lakes region and more heavy rain and strong winds for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. The large storm and intense cold will indeed play a role in NFL playoff games this weekend with Kansas City likely near 0 degrees at game time on Saturday evening and Buffalo’s game on Sunday afternoon could feature heavy lake-effect snow bands and very high winds.

Looking beyond the weekend, there are signs for a storm system to intensify somewhere over or just off the Carolina coast in the early-to-middle part of next week and - given the late weekend influx of much colder air - this storm can bring accumulating snow to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor…something not seen in quite awhile. Indeed, there is even the chance for another snow threat in the I-95 corridor at the end of next week associated with an influx of reinforcing Arctic air that could make for very cold conditions during the weekend of the 20th/21st.

Intense cold will push south and east across the nation in coming days with much colder air reaching the east coast by the end of the weekend. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com (12Z GFS 850 mb temperature anomaly loop from this afternoon to Saturday evening, January 20th)

Intense Cold

Intensely cold air has begun to arrive in the Lower 48 from western Canada and it will continue a push to the south and east in coming days likely making some big weather news along the way. For example, the state of Montana may feature temperatures that are some 70 degrees or so below-normal for this time of year which is certainly not all that common in that part of the nation. One computer forecast model depicts an actual low temperature reading of -64 degrees (F) near Rogers Pass, Montana by Saturday morning. The last time a weather station in that state of Montana fell to 60 degrees below zero was in January 1963 (at West Yellowstone; credit for information to Meteorologist Chris Martz). In addition, temperatures in this outbreak could drop to 5 below in Denver, 10 below in Chicago, 10 degrees (above) in Dallas, Texas, and perhaps well below freezing all the way down to the Lower Rio Grande Valley (TX/Mexico border).

Intense cold will be especially fierce across the state of Montana during the next few days with actual low temperatures of 60 degrees (F) below-zero on the table. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics, Chris Martz (Twitter),

Midwest/Great Lakes Blizzard

Low pressure will intensity significantly by tomorrow night over the Upper Midwest partly as a result of some of this Arctic air wrapping into the system from the northwest. The result will be an all-out blizzard across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes region from later tomorrow into Saturday. This large storm is likely to generate blizzard conditions across portions of several Midwestern/Great Lakes states including Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and perhaps the hardest hit state will be Michigan where a foot and a half can accumulate. This storm will have a big impact on such cities as Milwaukee, Madison, Grand Rapids and Lansing.

An all-out blizzard is coming to much of the Midwest and Great Lakes region from later tomorrow into Saturday. At the same time, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US will experience more in the way of heavy rain and strong winds. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicatidbits.com

Over the weekend, howling winds will continue across the Great Lakes and lake-effect snows are likely just downstream of the still largely unfrozen and relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes. (by the way, these lake temperatures will begin a rapid decline this weekend and that drop-off will continue next week). The lake-effect snows and the continuing strong winds will indeed have an impact on the playoff game in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon (1pm) and the game in Kansas City on Saturday night (8pm) is likely to feature game time temperatures near zero.

Heavy Rain/Strong Winds Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US

In the storm’s warm sector, it looks like another heavy rain and strong wind event for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US centered on the Friday night time period as southeasterly winds out ahead of the surface low pressure system assure above freezing temperatures during the bulk of the storm. Given the already well saturated grounds from numerous recent heavy rain events, any additional heavy rainfall has the potential to produce another round of flash flooding on Friday night in the northeastern states. Also, strong winds will again have the possibility of downing some tree limbs – perhaps in a weakened state from the last storm – and this may result in isolated power outages.

Enough cold air should work its way into the Mid-Atlantic region by late this weekend that low pressure next week can cause accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Accumulating Snow Threat(s) For The I-95 Corridor

Looking ahead to next week, there are signs that low pressure aided by strong jet streaks may intensify over or just off the Carolina coastline during the early-to-middle part of next week. Given the expected influx of much colder air by the end of the weekend on the heels of the Midwestern blizzard, this raises the chance for accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor…something that has been largely missing during the past couple of years. The early estimate on the time period for accumulating snow in the I-95 corridor is later Monday into Tuesday…but stay tuned as always with many details to iron out and we have to get through the first major storm. Looking beyond, there may even be a second threat of snow in the I-95 corridor at the end of next week as another Arctic air mass gets ready to push into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US potentially making for a very cold weekend on the 20th/21st.

Buckle up…quite an interesting 7 to 10 days.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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