2:30 PM | ***Active pattern to say the least…weekend storm favors accumulating snow in the interior Mid-Atlantic...heavy rain, interior snows, powerful winds with next week's storm***
Paul Dorian
The weekend storm system will favor accumulating snow across the interior Mid-Atlantic region and likely a mix in the metro regions along I-95. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The active weather pattern of recent days will continue during the next couple of weeks across the eastern half of the nation…and that may be quite an understatement. One storm system will impact the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend with wintry precipitation favoring accumulations across the interior and likely a mixture in the big cities along I-95. Another storm system will impact a large part of the eastern half of the nation in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame of next week and this one looks like a powerhouse. It is likely to feature very heavy rainfall, interior accumulating snows, and potentially damaging winds with power outages on the table. If that isn’t enough, there may be a couple of more systems to deal with in the eastern half of the nation by the time we get through the mid-point of January.
Weekend system
Low pressure pushes out of the southern states early this weekend and it will head in a northeast direction towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Another player in the weekend event will be high pressure over southeastern Canada which will help to lock in some cold air for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. The precipitation may reach the DC metro region as early as late morning or mid-day on Saturday and it will continue to push to the north and east likely reaching Philly by early-to-mid afternoon and NYC by late afternoon. In terms of precipitation type, it looks like a battle shaping up for awhile in the I-95 corridor between rain, ice and snow with a mixture the likely result in the big cities that will put a limit on total accumulation amounts. Precipitation is likely to continue on Saturday night in the big cities as rain or a mix of rain and snow and there can be some lingering precipitation on Sunday morning likely in the form of snow.
Next week’s storm system will feature a very tight pressure gradient field which can lead to damaging winds in addition to the heavy rainfall and interior, higher elevation accumulating snows. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
Next week’s storm
Next week’s storm looks like it may have a big impact on a large part of the nation from the Midwest/Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Low pressure will push towards the Great Lakes by Tuesday and given the overall blocking pattern in the atmosphere, there may be the development of a secondary low somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The favored scenario at this vantage point is for heavy rainfall to develop near and along coastal sections of the eastern US with accumulating snow likely in the interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. However, it is worth mentioning that given the blocking pattern aloft and the possibility of a secondary low pressure system, there is a chance that there is an initial outburst of snow in some of the areas where rain is likely to end up being the predominate precipitation type. Also, one other factor to mention with respect to next week’s storm is that there may very well be damaging wind gusts with power outages a possibility. The pressure difference between the expected strong low pressure system over the Great Lakes and high pressure over eastern Canada will likely be very large raising the chance for strong and potentially damaging winds from later Tuesday into Wednesday; especially, along coastal sections.
This forecast map by the 12Z GEM certainly supports the notion of an active weather pattern over the next ten days across the eastern half of the nation with plenty of precipitation. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
Buckle up…it looks like quite an active couple of weeks.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
Video discussion: