1:00 PM | **An update on the newest tropical system...very impressive upcoming cold shots for the central/eastern states**
Paul Dorian
High-latitude blocking will intensify by later next week across northern Canada and Greenland as an upper-level trough deepens over the Ohio Valley. This pattern should result in much colder-than-normal air for much of the central and eastern US later next week and potentially right through much of Thanksgiving week. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
It is not all that unusual for the “last hurrah” of an Atlantic Basin tropical season to be followed by an influx of winter-like cold into the central and eastern US and, in some cases, it is a “pattern-changing” type of event. One such example of this kind of scenario unfolded with Hurricane Sandy at the end of October during 2012 which was then followed by a colder-than-normal November in most areas east of the Mississippi. (In fact, cold air actually wrapped into Hurricane Sandy with as much as 3 feet of snow in West Virginia during that event). It appears a tropical system now forming over the Caribbean Sea may cross the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week and it then can take a turn to the northeast. Hopefully, this tropical system will weaken during its encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula and before a possible northeast turn towards the state of Florida. At the same time, cold air will be charging southeastward from Canada into the central states and other very impressive-looking cold shots are destined to work their way into the central and eastern states later in the month.
Hurricane Sandy slammed into the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic region during the late stages of October in 2012 and colder-than-normal air flooded in on its backside. In fact, portions of West Virginia received as much as 3 feet of snow as the colder air wrapped into Hurricane Sandy itself and then the month of November was colder-than-normal across most areas east of the Mississippi River. Map courtesy NOAA
Tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea
In this Atlantic Basin tropical season that is having a hard time winding down, yet another system is now forming over the still quite warm waters of the Caribbean Sea. This system may intensify into tropical storm status (would be “Sara”) during the day or two and then should skirt the northern coastline of Central America before pushing over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico by the early part of next week. With this potential extended encounter with land, significant intensification beyond tropical storm status is not too likely…at least not in the near-term. This movement over land is certainly a good thing since the likely path of this tropical system once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico will be to the northeast - and towards the state of Florida. An incoming and deepening upper-level trough across the central US will likely result in southwesterly flow aloft over the Gulf of Mexico by early next week; therefore, a turn to the northeast by this tropical system.
The second half of the month can feature multiple impressive cold shots into the central and eastern states following the passage of what may be a tropical storm system traveling from the Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic Ocean. Maps courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Upcoming cold shots
At the same time the state of Florida may be impacted by the newest tropical system, high-latitude blocking will be intensifying across Canada and Greenland with much higher heights and pressures compared to normal. Also, a deepening upper-level trough will slide into the Ohio Valley by later next week and with it, a much colder-than-normal air mass. This shot of cold air will quite likely not be the last as additional impressive-looking cold shots seem destined for the central and eastern states during the week of Thanksgiving and its preceding weekend. Whether these upper-level troughs and colder-than-normal air masses result in accumulating snow later this month remains to be seen, but certainly that is on the table for portions of the Great Lakes and especially higher elevation, interior locations of the Northeast US…stay tuned, it may be an early preview of winter.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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