1:00 PM (Thursday) | *Severe weather/tornado threat next few days to be focused on the Plains*
Paul Dorian
There has been a spike in tornadoes across the nation since late April putting the year-to-date totals at well above-normal levels. Data courtesy NOAA/SPC
Overview
A spurt of tornadoes since late April has put levels well above normal as we reach the end of May and the overall active weather pattern of recent weeks looks like it’ll continue into the month of June. One of the key ingredients to this on-going active weather pattern has been the steady influx of colder-than-normal air masses from Canada into the US at the same time increasingly warm and humid air has been flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The main area of concern for severe weather and tornadoes over the next few days will be across the Plains states all the way from Texas (today/tonight/tomorrow) to the Dakotas/Minnesota (on Sunday).
The Plains States will be the focus of attention in coming days with respect to the overall severe weather/tornado threat with immediate concern in Texas and nearby states. The most concerning aspect of this latest severe weather threat is that it will extend into the overnight hours which is often much more difficult to relay warning messages to the general public. Map courtesy NOAA/WPC, Weather Bell Analytics
Details
This is turning out to be one of the most active tornado seasons in many years across the nation. Since late April, numerous tornadoes have been reported raising yearly levels to the highest percentile rankings seen in a long time. Unfortunately, the next few days can see a further build-up of those numbers with the main threat zone being the Plain States from Texas to the Dakotas.
One particular forecast model issued by Meteorologist MJ Ventrice concentrates the severe weather threat on Saturday across the southern and central Plains. (Note-this is not an official forecast map by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center). Map courtesy MJ Ventrice (on X).
The first such threat of severe weather comes later today and tonight and will be concentrated across Texas and extend into nearby states of Oklahoma and Arkansas. A complex scenario is unfolding across the southern Plains with multiple thunderstorm clusters already ongoing and a few tornadoes will be possible from later today into the overnight hours. The threat of tornadic activity associated in the overnight hours with an expected “mesoscale convective system” is especially concerning as it is the most difficult time to warn people if they are indeed in a potential danger zone region. The combination of ingredients including an influx of cool, dry air from the north and west with warm, humid air incoming from the Gulf of Mexico will raise the chance of severe weather in this part of the country.
One particular forecast model issued by Meteorologist MJ Ventrice concentrates the severe weather threat on Sunday across the central and northern Plains. (Note-this is not an official forecast map by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center). Map courtesy MJ Ventrice (on X).
On Friday and Saturday, the threat of severe weather is likely to remain across the southern Plains and potentially extend northward into the Central Plains of Kansas and Nebraska. By Sunday, the possibility exists for the severe weather threat to climb even farther north into such Northern Plains States as South Dakota and Minnesota. It looks like the overall active weather pattern across the nation will continue as we push into the month of June likely adding to what are already quite high tornado totals for the year.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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