****TS Debby to move back over water...a second landfall early Thursday...extreme rainfall amounts in South Carolina...Mid-Atlantic gets very heavy rainfall/severe storms later today/tonight****
Paul Dorian
Tropical Storm Debby is about to move back out over the open waters of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean. This system will likely intensify some on Tuesday night and Wednesday before making a second landfall early Thursday in South Carolina. Images courtesy NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-East (“Sandwich RGB” Band which combines IR Band 13 with Visual Band 3)
Overview
Tropical Storm Debby is about to move back out over the open waters of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean…just off the coast of South Carolina. This system will re-intensify some during the next 24 hours or so with a chance of getting back to category 1 hurricane status and then it’ll likely make a second landfall early Thursday in South Carolina. Whether or not Debby returns to hurricane status, there will be extreme rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next couple of days centered on the state of South Carolina.
Farther north, much of the Mid-Atlantic region will experience very heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms from later today into early tomorrow due to a combination of tropical moisture feeding northward from Tropical Storm Debby and an incoming strong cold frontal system. The remnants of Tropical Storm Debby will finally get kicked to north late in the week with heavy rainfall and potentially even tornadoes a threat in the entire Mid-Atlantic region on Friday/Friday night.
Tremendous rainfall amounts will pile up in places like South Carolina during the next 24-48 hours due to direct effects of TS Debby. Significant rain can fall in the Mid-Atlantic region both tonight and again at week’s end with the arrival of the remnants of TS Debby. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre (12Z CMC)
Tropical Storm Debby
Tropical Storm Debby is about to move back out over the open waters of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean just off the coast of South Carolina. These waters are very warm this time of year and some re-intensification is likely during the next 24 hours or so while Debby is positioned over the water. Debby is then likely to make a second landfall early Thursday somewhere over the central coastal area of South Carolina. After that, TS Debby will finally begin to make a move to the north likely reaching the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday, and there is the potential for heavy rainfall, strong thunderstorms, gusty winds, and even isolated tornadoes will be on the table. By early Saturday, the remains of Debby will be accelerating to the northeast as tropical systems often due when they reach higher latitudes and it should be all the way to the Canadian Maritime Provinces by later in the weekend.
NOAA’s official storm track has TS Debby accelerating to the north by the end of the week and likely crossing over the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. Map courtesy NOAA/NHC
Mid Atlantic region
While the most direct impact of Tropical Storm Debby in the Mid-Atlantic region will come at week’s end, there can be some torrential rainfall tonight across much of the Mid-Atlantic region and this’ll include some severe thunderstorm activity. The combination of tropical moisture pushing northward from TS Debby and an incoming cold frontal system will generate numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region from later today through late tonight. The best chance for torrential rainfall and severe thunderstorm activity will come in places north of the PA/MD border; however, even northern Maryland and northern Virginia can get in on some of the action from later today into early Wednesday. Whatever falls tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region – and it can be very significant in some areas – this will be a “forerunner” event.. An additional round of heavy rain is on the table from later Thursday into early Saturday with the arrival of Tropical Storm Debby and tornadoes may be on the table as well.
Very warm water just off the South Carolina coastline (circled region) can help with re-intensification of TS Debby on Tuesday night and Wednesday…and a slight chance of getting back to category 1 hurricane status - before a second landfall on Thursday morning. Map courtesy Ryan Maue (X), weathermodels.com, ECMWF
Looking ahead, the weather may actually turn out to be very nice on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic region and the rest of the northeastern part of the nation with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
Video discussion: