2:30 PM (Wed) - **Hurricane Francine closing in on central Louisiana coastline...northward progression of remnants to grind to a halt...strong low pressure forms along east coast by early next week**
Paul Dorian
Hurricane Francine is closing in on the central coastline of Louisiana this afternoon as a strong “category 1” storm system. Images courtesy NOAA/GOES-East
Overview
Hurricane Francine is closing in on the central Louisiana coastline as a strong category 1 storm and maximum sustained winds of around 90 mph. After landfall later today, Francine will slowly weaken as it pushes in a general northeasterly direction reaching southern Mississippi by early Thursday. From there, the remnants of Francine will become increasingly influenced by very strong high pressure ridging over southern Canada and its northward progression will grind to a halt over the western part of the Tennessee Valley. With the atmospheric blocking still in place later this weekend, new low pressure is likely to form somewhere near the Carolina coastline. This system will have plenty of available tropical moisture and its rain field could push slowly to the north early next week…potentially bringing some beneficial rains to the Mid-Atlantic region.
Hurricane Francine is to make landfall late Wednesday in central Louisiana and then will head north-to-northeast over the southern Mississippi Valley region before it grinds to a halt near the western part of the Tennessee Valley by week’s end. Map courtesy NOAA/NHC
Details
Hurricane Francine should make landfall later this afternoon or early tonight in the central part of Louisiana bringing hurricane-force winds to southern Louisiana and heavy rainfall from southern Louisiana to Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and to portions of the Florida Panhandle. Storm surge will be highest on the right side of the storm track extending from the central/eastern coastline of Louisiana to the Mississippi coastline. The storm system will pack quite a punch for the New Orleans metro area likely featuring 80+ mph wind gusts and 8-10 inches of rainfall during the next 6-12 hours or so.
Very strong upper-level high pressure ridging (shown in orange) will be positioned over southern Canada in coming days and this will help to halt the northward progression of the remnants of Francine (shown in blue) and ultimately, lead to newly forming low pressure along the eastern seaboard by early next week. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
After landfall, Francine will slowly weaken as it pushes northeastward into the southern portion of Mississippi on Thursday morning. After that, Francine will continue to weaken and head in a general northward direction and begin to slow down as it becomes increasingly influenced by building high pressure ridging over the southern part of Canada. As a result, the moisture field of the remnants of Francine will halt in its northward progression by week’s end somewhere near the western part of the Tennessee Valley.
With strong high pressure maintaining its position over NE US/SE Canada, new low pressure will form later this weekend near or along the South Atlantic coastline. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
With a strong blocking pattern in place this weekend, new low pressure is likely to get organized somewhere near or along the South Atlantic coastline. This system is going to have plenty of tropical moisture to work with and, as such, can become quite a rain producer. With blocking high pressure still positioned to the north and east late this weekend, any new low pressure that does form will only be able to advance slowly to the north. Areas that ultimately become impacted by this new storm system are likely to be impacted for an extended period given the strong block in the atmosphere. The moisture field of this new low pressure area could advance as far north as the southern/central Mid-Atlantic during the first half of next week potentially providing some beneficial rainfall to the region. Stay tuned...always a difficult forecast for specific locations when dealing with strong blocking in the atmosphere.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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