1:15 PM | ***Accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic from later tomorrow into early Wednesday...highest amounts across DC, Virginia, Delmarva, southern NJ...more wintry precipitation Wed. night***
Paul Dorian
Snow breaks out on Tuesday in the Mid-Atlantic region and will continue into early Wednesday as low pressure heads towards the coastal waters of Virginia/North Carolina. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
The next low pressure to impact the Mid-Atlantic region will take more of a southern track compared to recent systems and head to a position off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Wednesday. As a result, cold air will become better established farther to the south and we are looking at primarily a snow event in the Mid-Atlantic including across the DC metro region. Given the southern track, the highest snowfall amounts are likely to cut across the southern Mid-Atlantic in places like DC, Virginia, Delmarva and southern New Jersey where several inches are possible. A follow-up low pressure system will quickly follow from late Wednesday into Thursday, and it will have a lot of cold air on its front end likely resulting in snow and/or sleet by Wednesday evening in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. However, this second system will take a track to the northwest of I-95 and that path will allow for milder air to push northward resulting in a changeover by Thursday of snow/sleet to freezing rain and rain.
Low pressure takes a southern route and ends up off the coast of Virginia/North Carolina by early Wednesday. As such, colder air will remain in place in most of the Mid-Atlantic leading to primarily a snow event from later tomorrow into early Wednesday. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Accumulating snow event later Tuesday into early Wednesday
Snow is likely across much of the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into early Wednesday as low pressure takes a southern route and heads towards the coastal waters off Virginia/North Carolina. Unlike prior storms and given this southern track, this system is likely to produce primarily – if not completely – precipitation in the form of snow from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC from later tomorrow into early Wednesday. The highest snowfall amounts are likely to end up across the southern Mid-Atlantic in such places as DC, Virginia, Delmarva Peninsula, and southern New Jersey with lowest amounts across places like NE PA and NYC.
Snow will accumulate in the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into early Wednesday with the highest amounts likely ending up across the southern half from DC/Virginia-to- the Delmarva Peninsula-to-southern New Jersey. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Breakdown of starting times, snowfall estimates for DC, Philly, NYC:
DC: Snow begins around mid-day to early afternoon and can come down hard by evening. Snow continues overnight and winds down early Wednesday morning with accumulations on the order of 4-7 inches with isolated higher amounts.
Philly: Snow begins around mid-to-late afternoon and can come down hard by late evening. Snow continues overnight and winds down early Wednesday morning with accumulations on the order of 2-5 inches (higher amounts in that range to the south and east and lower amounts to the north and west).
NYC: Snow begins around late afternoon or early evening and continues into early Wednesday with snowfall amounts on the order of 1-3 inches.
Snow will from across the Mid-Atlantic region from later tomorrow into early Wednesday and then a follow-up system pushes snow and sleet back into the area late Wednesday/early Wednesday night. This next system, however, will take a track to the northwest of I-95 allowing for warmer air to push into the region and causing a changeover of snow/sleet to freezing rain and ultimately plain rain by early Thursday. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Next winter storm threat...late Wednesday into Thursday
The next in a long series of low pressure systems in this on-going active weather pattern will bring more precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic region as quickly as late Wednesday afternoon or early evening. With high pressure situated over southeastern Canada, cold air will be locked in place across the northeastern states...at least for awhile. As Wednesday night progress, the high pressure will begin a retreat to the north and east and surface low pressure will slide to the northwest of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. This repositioning of the high and path of the low will allow for some warming to take place along the I-95 corridor, but perhaps not before a couple to a few inches of snow and ice accumulate before the change to plain rain early Thursday.
Following the passage of low pressure and its trailing cold front later this weekend, cold air will flood the northeastern states and next week looks quite a bit colder-than-normal on average for the eastern 2/3rds of the nation. Map courtesy ECMWF, weathermodels.com (BAM Weather, X)
Cold outlook for next week
The work week should end on a cold and dry note and then another low pressure system can bring rain…potentially heavy…to the Mid-Atlantic region sometime during the upcoming weekend. There is an outside chance that there is mixed precipitation for awhile in parts of the area. That weekend low pressure system will drag a cold front through the area and cold air looks like it will flood the northeastern states leading to a colder-than-normal week on average across the eastern 2/3rds of the nation.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube
Video discussion: