12:15 PM | ****Ice threat southern Mid-Atlantic...mainly snow event northern Mid-Atlantic...similar “mixed precipitation” scenario this weekend...snow threat by middle of next week****
Paul Dorian
The threat exists for icing later tonight into early Thursday focused in on the region from just north and west of DC to southern PA. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, Pivotal Weather
Overview
An active weather pattern will bring three winter storm systems to the Mid-Atlantic region during the next week or so. The first system will bring a mix of precipitation types to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from tonight into tomorrow morning and all areas are likely to feature slippery road conditions for the Thursday AM commute. A thin layer of air with slightly above-freezing temperatures will push into the upper part of the atmosphere later tonight from the DC metro region to southeastern PA and this will lead to many hours of sleet and/or freezing rain depending on location. It looks like mainly a snow event in the NYC metro area during the overnight and early morning hours though sleet and rain can mix in at times. All areas along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor are likely to experience slippery road conditions for the Thursday AM commute. A similar scenario with mixed precipitation is likely this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region from late Saturday into early Sunday and there is the potential for accumulating snow during the early-to-middle part of next week as this very active weather pattern continues.
Ice threat southern Mid-Atlantic...mainly snow northern Mid-Atlantic
While there can be a bit a few snow showers around today in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor – possibly mixed with sleet at times - the main action will take place from later this evening into the morning hours on Thursday. All areas from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC can expect slippery road conditions for the Thursday AM commute.
A thin layer of air (indicated by arrow) with slightly above freezing temperatures will move into the southeastern part of PA late tonight likely resulting in a changeover of the precipitation to sleet and then to freezing rain…surface temperatures (circled) remain at or below freezing into the early morning hours. Plots courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Philly: In the Philly metro region, it is likely to be cold enough for snow early tonight perhaps mixed with sleet and then a changeover to mainly sleet takes place later tonight. The sleet can last for an extended period of time before freezing rain mixes in towards daybreak. Sleet and freezing rain can then continue for awhile on Thursday morning as ground temperatures are likely to remain at or below freezing; especially, in the normally colder N/W suburbs. Precipitation winds down by mid-day and temperatures should be well above freezing during the afternoon hours.
A thin layer of air (indicated by arrow) with slightly above freezing temperatures will move into the DC metro region early tonight and “thicken” by early Thursday…all the while surface temperatures (circled) remain near the freezing mark. The end result is likely to be an extended period of freezing rain with an icy buildup on untreated surfaces (e.g., trees, roads). Plots courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
DC: A mix of sleet and freezing rain is likely to arrive in the DC metro region during the mid-to-late evening hours and then as a thin layer of air with above-freezing temperatures pushes in aloft, any sleet that is falling will change to freezing rain and an icy buildup by morning is possible on untreated surfaces (e.g., trees, roadways); especially, across the N/W suburbs of DC. It’ll be a struggle for surface temperatures to climb above freezing during the early morning hours; especially, in those normally colder suburban locations. Precipitation winds down by md-day and temperatures climb to the 40’s in the afternoon.
NYC: For the most part, this will be a snow event in and around the New York City metro region even though there can be some sleet and freezing rain that mixes in towards daybreak and early tomorrow morning. Accumulations of snow (and sleet) can amount to a few inches in some spots by mid-morning Thursday.
A very similar weather scenario is unfolding for the weekend in that similar to tonight’s event, there is likely to be a mixed bag of precipitation for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor ranging from snow-to-sleet-to-freezing rain-to-plain rain. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Similar weather scenario this weekend with mixed precipitation
After a late week cold frontal passage, another batch of cold and dry air will push into the Mid-Atlantic region for the early part of the weekend and at the same time, moisture will begin to gather to our southwest. In much the same manner as tonight’s event, a mixed bag of precipitation is likely in the Mid-Atlantic region from late Saturday into early Sunday which can include all the above from snow-to-sleet-to-freezing-to-plain rain. This weekend precipitation event is likely to get over with by mid-day on Sunday which is good timing as there shouldn’t be any travel concerns for the PM hours in the lead-up to the Super Bowl (start time of 6:30pm).
While still many days away, there are signs for accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle part of next week…have to wait to see how the initial couple of systems play out before fine-tuning the details for next week’s system. Map courtesy ECMWF
Accumulating snow threat by the middle part of next week
After the weekend system passes by to the northeast of here, another cold, dry air mass will push into the Mid-Atlantic region and as many teleconnection indices suggest, this cold air intrusion may be able to penetrate farther to the south than prior ones. It appears that yet another storm system will gather strength by the early or middle parts of next week in this ongoing very active weather pattern and this one is likely to have more cold air to work with...all of which enhances the chance for accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region...stay tuned...many days to go before next week’s threat.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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