**Tropical moisture flowing northward along the Atlantic seaboard...continuing to alleviate dry conditions in the eastern states**
Paul Dorian
A plume of tropical moisture in the lower atmosphere is flowing northward along the eastern seaboard (shown in blue/white). Maps courtesy NOAA, College of DuPage
Overview
It has been unusually dry across much of the eastern US during the past several months with the biggest impact being on the Florida Peninsula. However, prospects for getting back to normalcy are looking better and better in what has become an overall wetter weather pattern. In fact, today features a plume of tropical moisture that is flowing northward along the eastern seaboard and significant (and welcome) rainfall is currently falling all the way from Florida - where it has been exceptionally dry - to the Carolinas. This widespread area of moisture is supported aloft by a slow-moving and vigorous upper-level trough of low pressure and the result in the Mid-Atlantic region will be another extended period of showers and thunderstorms helping to further alleviate dry soil moisture conditions.
Soaking and welcome rain is currently falling from Florida to the Carolinas and this precipitation shield will push into the Mid-Atlantic from early tonight (DC) to early Tuesday (NYC). Maps courtesy weatherunderground.com, WSI, Intellicast
Details
Most recent months in the Mid-Atlantic region have been drier-than-normal going back to last fall when the month of October was especially dry and featured virtually no rainfall in some spots such as in Philadelphia, PA. Lately, we have begun to significantly chip away at the dry soil conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region with an extended wet period last week and it looks like a repeat performance this week.
Yet another very slow-moving upper-level trough of low pressure will play a role in an extended wet period for the Mid-Atlantic region with showers a threat on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
There is currently a plume of tropical moisture that is riding up along the eastern seaboard from the Caribbean Sea and soaking (and welcome) rain is falling all the way from Florida – where is has been exceptionally dry in recent weeks – to the Carolinas. This large area of moisture is supported aloft by yet another very slow-moving and deep upper-level trough (“omega blocking pattern”) now centered over the northern Gulf region. Rain is likely to overspread the Mid-Atlantic region from south-to-north between early tonight (DC) and early Tuesday (NYC) and once it arrives, it may stick around for awhile. While it won’t be a constant rain, showers will be a threat in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday thanks to the very slow-movement of the system aloft and thunderstorms can mix into the picture as well. Once the upper-level low finally “opens up” and exits off to the north and east during the late week, there can be a break in the action, but that won’t last too long.
Most months between now and last fall have featured below-normal rainfall for much of the eastern US, but we have been chipping away at these dry soil conditions with recent rain events and more rain is on the way during the next couple of week. Map courtesy NOAA
Low pressure over the Great Lakes may push a couple of cold frontal systems this way from later Friday into Saturday and these can renew the shower threat in the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition, these cold fronts are likely to feature a more unstable atmosphere compared to the Tuesday-Thursday system, and this could enhance the chance for severe thunderstorms at week’s end into the weekend.
Bottom line...the overall weather pattern is wetter, and we’ll continue to chip away at any lingering drought conditions across the eastern states in coming days.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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