While the weather around here so far this winter has not been too newsworthy in terms of precipitation and temperatures, what has been going on in California and Europe has been quite amazing. There has been talk in recent years that this latest drought in California was going to be different this time and more of a “permanent” drought and there was also some talk that European winters would soon be lacking in snow – to say that both of these ideas are being seriously challenged this winter is quite an understatement. In California, incredible amounts of rain have piled up in recent days across low-lying areas of the state, mountains of snow have accumulated in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains - and much more is on the way. Meanwhile, Europe has experienced severe cold and substantial snow in recent weeks - and much more is about to punish that continent.
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Extremely cold weather has not only gripped much of the US during the past couple of days, but severe cold has hit Europe as well with widespread consequences including power and water outages, cut off villages, frozen rivers and lakes, and, unfortunately, numerous deaths.
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The drought in California has lessened in severity this year and significant rainfall over the next couple of days should continue to improve overall conditions. A major storm will bring another round of drought-denting rain to much of the western US over the next few days and this will add to recent rainfall that has helped to ease drought conditions across much of California. In fact, flash flooding is a near term threat in California from this storm and there is a risk of mudslides in areas that experienced wildfires earlier this year. Drenching rain from this upcoming storm will first arrive in southern Oregon and northern California late Friday and then it’ll push southward into southern sections of the state including LA and San Diego by early Saturday morning.
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VENCORE WEATHER FEATURED ON WTKI RADIO; Paul Dorian, Vencore meteorologist, was interviewed on WTKI Radio in Huntsville, AL. Listen to the interview here.
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Whether you’re talking about major (category 3, 4 or 5) hurricanes or tornadoes, there is good news this year for the US in that - similar to most recent years - these extreme weather-related events are down across the nation compared-to-normal. In fact, in the case of tornadoes, we are on pace for one of the quietest years in the last decade and with respect to land falling major hurricanes in the US, an unprecedented streak in the record-keeping era continues through yet another tropical season.
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Sunspot counts have just reached their lowest level since 2011. The sun has been completely spotless on 23 days in 2016 and the blank look is increasing in frequency as it heads towards the next solar minimum. The next solar minimum is expected to be deep and extended - probably reached around 2019 or 2020. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began and it is the weakest in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Low solar activity is known to have consequences on Earth’s weather and climate and it also is well correlated with an increase in cosmic rays that reach the upper part of the atmosphere.
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September was well above normal in the Mid-Atlantic region (PHL +4.4°, DC +5.0°, NYC +3.8°), October turned out above-normal as well (PHL +2.9°, DC +3.6°, NYC +1.0°); however, there are signs for a major temperature pattern flip during the middle and latter parts of November that will bring dramatic changes to the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions. In fact, this expected upcoming pattern flip to colder that was discussed in detail in the recently posted Vencore Weather Winter Outlook, may very well stick around for awhile and lead us right into a colder-than-normal winter season in the Mid-Atlantic region. The month of December is likely to be a far cry from the unusually warm weather that we experienced a year ago and the period from Thanksgiving-to-Christmas could be very interesting indeed.
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The sun has been completely spotless on 21 days in 2016 and it is currently featuring just one lonely sunspot region. In fact, on June 4th of this year, the sun went completely spotless for the first time since 2011 and that quiet spell lasted for about four days. Sunspot regions then reappeared for the next few weeks on a sporadic basis, but that was followed by several more completely spotless days on the surface of the sun. The increasingly frequent blank sun is a sign that the next solar minimum is approaching and there will be an even greater number of spotless days over the next few years. At first, the blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time, then it’ll continue for weeks at a time, and finally it should last for months at a time when the sunspot cycle reaches its nadir. The next solar minimum phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020. The current solar cycle is the 24th since 1755 when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began and is the weakest in more than a century with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. One other note, the weak solar cycle and the expectation for continued low solar activity this upcoming winter is an important factor in this year’s colder-than-normal Winter Outlook for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Last winter was one in which significantly warmer-than-normal temperatures prevailed in the Mid-Atlantic region largely as a result of a strong El Nino event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but it also featured a blockbuster blizzard that boosted seasonal values to well above normal levels in the DC-to-Philly-to-New York City corridor. It looks like the Mid-Atlantic region is going to experience a much different winter this year with respect to temperatures as it should turn out to be colder-than-normal as weak La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean have replaced the strong El Nino. As far as snowfall is concerned, total amounts this winter are likely to reach near normal to slightly above normal levels in the I-95 corridor. In addition to the big change in temperatures, another big difference this year should be a much quicker start to winter-like weather conditions. The last couple of winters featured quite warm Decembers compared to normal, but that is not likely this year as a big flip in the overall temperature pattern to colder should take place during the middle or latter part of November.
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Arctic sea ice extent has seemingly just passed its low point of the melting season with a rather sharp uptick in recent days (circled region). Arctic sea ice generally shrinks every year during the spring and summer seasons until it reaches its minimum yearly extent around this time. Sea ice then typically regrows during the frigid fall and winter seasons when the sun is below the horizon in the Arctic. The apparent end to this year’s melting season in the Arctic around September 10th was actually a bit sooner than in some recent years and perhaps the earliest turnaround since the late 1990s. For example, in the record low year of 2012 for Arctic sea ice extent, the turning point marking the end of the melting season took place around September 16th.
While Arctic sea ice extent appeared to be headed for record lows earlier this year, the melting rate changed pace and actually slowed down in the summer months. The low point just reached is clearly still below the normal value for the 1981-2000 time period, but it is actually quite comparable to the minimums seen during each of the last three years - and safely above the record low seen in 2012. The Arctic sea ice extent has been generally below normal since the middle 1990’s at which time the northern Atlantic Ocean switched sea surface temperature phases from cold-to-warm and it is likely to return to pre-mid 1990’s levels when the ocean cycle flips back to cold. Meteorologists track oceanic temperature cycles in the northern Atlantic Ocean with an index value known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO flipped from negative-to-positive in the mid 1990's signaling an important long-term sea surface temperature phase shift from cold-to-warm and it has stayed positive ever since. Typically, oceanic temperature cycles in the Atlantic Ocean have lasted for about 20 to 30 years.
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