A cold front will cross the region late today and it is likely to come through on the dry side. High pressure then returns to the area to close out the work week and it’ll turn a bit colder on Friday following the cold frontal passage. Another front pushes into the region on Saturday and it will likely generate occasional rain during the daytime hours; primarily, before noon. Christmas Day (Sunday) will feature the return of sunshine as high pressure builds in from the north. Looking ahead, a cold shot at the end of next week is destined to make it quite cold as we begin the new year.
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High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern for another day and it’ll turn a bit milder here at the mid-week point. A cold front will cross the region late tomorrow, but it is likely to generate just a couple of isolated rain showers in the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure then returns to the area to close out the work week, but another cold frontal system should bring showers on Saturday that will likely move out of here by Saturday night (Christmas Eve). High pressure builds to our north on Sunday, Christmas Day, bringing us a return of partial sunshine with afternoon temperatures climbing towards the 50 degree mark for highs. Looking ahead, a milder pattern will set up as we heads towards the new year, but it is very likely going to be just a temporary break in the cold.
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High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern for the next couple of days and we’ll turn a bit milder on Wednesday following colder-than-normal conditions today. A cold front will cross the region late Thursday and it could generate a few rain showers, but no significant precipitation is expected from this system. High pressure returns to the area to close out the work week and begin the holiday weekend.
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Another Arctic front pushed through the region late yesterday, and it’ll be much colder again to start off the new work week. The coldest core of this Arctic air outbreak will stay over the Upper Midwest; however, and we should not get quite as cold as during the last one. Another cold front heads our way later this week and it could generate rain showers in the area on Thursday and Thursday night.
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Arctic air is firmly entrenched in the Mid-Atlantic region and moisture is headed our way – not a good combination. Mid-day temperatures at the big cities of DC, Philly and NYC are holding in the low-to-mid 20’s, clouds are beginning to thicken, and dew points are hanging near zero. The extreme dryness of this air mass as indicated by those very low dew points is one sign that this is indeed true Arctic air from the Northern Canadian tundra region. The cold, dense Arctic air will grudgingly retreat to the north later tonight and early Saturday, but not before moisture arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region. The result will be snow and ice problems for about a twelve hour period from midnight-to-noon. After that, temperatures will likely climb into the 40’s on Saturday afternoon, perhaps even to 50+ degrees on Sunday, but then another Arctic air mass will filter in late Sunday and the beginning of next week will be quite cold.
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Those howling Arctic winds of yesterday will calm down today as strong high pressure moves right on top of the Mid-Atlantic region. With the high pressure system moving right above us, the pressure gradient will relax and this, in turn, will lead to diminishing winds. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will begin to retreat to the north during the evening hours as the high pressure system shifts off the east coast. Moisture will arrive here later tonight before the Arctic air has a chance to fully retreat; consequently, snow is likely to break out at or shortly after midnight and then mix with sleet in the wee hours of the morning and then freezing rain near daybreak. Around daybreak, a mix of rain, freezing rain and sleet is likely to be coming down in the DC metro region. There can be a snow accumulation of a coating to an inch or so by daybreak and then some icing on top of that during the early morning. The early day wintry mix will then change to all (plain) rain by mid-day and temperatures can actually climb towards the 50 degree mark during the afternoon hours with more (plain) rain likely. The rain should then slacken off somewhat tomorrow night. Another round of rain is going to return for Sunday as low pressure forms along the next Arctic frontal system which will be approaching us from the Midwest. It is possible that the rain changes to sleet and/or snow for a brief time early Sunday night as the next Arctic air mass filters into the region with the best chance for that potential changeover in the northern and western suburbs of the District. Following the passage of this next Arctic frontal system, the beginning of next week promises to very cold for the middle of December. Longer term, there are signs for a warmer weather pattern again as we get to the latter part of December and early part of January.
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Strong Arctic high pressure will move right on top of the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and this will result in a relaxation of the pressure gradient which, in turn, will result in diminishing winds so the cold will be easier to take. The Arctic air mass will begin to retreat to the north tomorrow evening, but moisture will push in before it has a chance to fully retreat. As a result, snow is likely to break out around or shortly after midnight in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. As the Arctic air retreats, there will be a transition of snow to ice and ultimately to plain rain up and down the I-95 corridor, but accumulations will occur before the changeover and slippery conditions can be expected on the roadways.
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The Arctic winds will howl today and tonight bringing wind chill values to zero or below at times in much of the I-95 corridor. Actual air temperatures will be confined to the 20’s for highs and there can be isolated snow shower activity at just about anytime. Temperatures will likely bottom out early Friday morning in the upper single digits near New York City, not far from 10 degrees in the Philly N and W suburbs, and around 15 degrees in the DC area. In fact, some record low temperatures are likely to fall on Friday in much of the Northeast US. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then begin to retreat by early Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest and this potential collision of moisture and retreating Arctic air is likely to lead to some snow/ice accumulations in the region before a complete changeover to plain rain takes place around mid-day. Preliminary estimates for accumulations of snow/ice before the changeover to rain are on the order of a coating to a couple of inches with the higher amounts to the north and west. Temperatures could very well then climb to 50 degrees later Saturday after the full retreat of the low-level Arctic air and more rain is likely during the afternoon hours.
The rain will tend to lighten up for awhile during Saturday night, but then it should return on Sunday as a low pressure system develops along the next Arctic front which will approach from the Midwest. Temperatures may actually peak early Sunday in the mid-to-upper 40's, but then colder Arctic air will filter in during the late afternoon/early evening hours and it is possible that there is a brief changeover from rain to sleet and snow in the N and W suburbs. Following the passage of this next Arctic frontal system, the beginning of next week promises to very cold for the middle of December.
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No doubt this is a very complicated forecast in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next five days or so as we’ll experience a deep freeze which will be followed by a rather rapid thaw which will then be followed by another freeze. In addition, there will be multiple systems that can impact us with accumulating snow, ice and/or rain.
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Another Arctic blast arrives later this evening in the Mid-Atlantic region and this one will be colder than the last one. In fact, temperatures on Thursday and Friday are likely to hold in the 20’s on both days and overnight lows by early Friday morning could bottom out in the upper single digits near New York City, not far from 10 degrees in the Philly suburbs, and around 15 degrees in DC. This bitter cold, dense Arctic air mass will then retreat on Saturday, but not before moisture reaches us from the Midwest. This collision of moisture and retreating Arctic air could lead to accumulating snow and/or ice in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor late Friday night/early Saturday before a mid-day changeover to plain rain.
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