Low pressure will slowly push away from the Northeast US coastline today and high pressure will build in for tonight and Thursday. The return to dry weather on Thursday, however, will not last too long as moisture will head our way from the Deep South on Friday and likely result in shower activity around here during the PM hours. High pressure will try to build into the region this weekend, but more moisture from the Deep South will head our way for late Sunday and Monday. In fact, this system heading our way for the Sunday night/Monday time period could turn out to be a significant rain maker for the entire I-95 corridor. Looking ahead beyond this "January thaw" several day stretch, a colder weather pattern is likely to return to the eastern US by the end of next week.
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Low pressure will head from the Great Lakes region today to the Northeast US coastline and it will generate some shower activity for the region. Showers can continue on Wednesday as well, but Thursday should be on the dry side. Another system is likely to produce some rain around here Friday afternoon and evening and the weekend will remain on the unsettled side as high pressure to our north tries to take control. There is the chance for a significant rain event during the early part of next week.
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The week will start on the chilly side, but a warm frontal passage on Tuesday will pave the way for much milder conditions at mid-week. It'll stay relatively mild on Thursday and Friday, but not quite as warm as what is expected on Wednesday. Showers cannot be ruled out on Wednesday and then are likely to return on Friday afternoon following a dry Thursday.
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An initial burst of precipitation this morning will produce sleet in parts of the DC metro region; especially, across northern sections, as low-level temperatures have resulted in a corridor favoring this form of precipitation. Other areas will see some light rain that can freeze on untreated surfaces over the next few hours; especially, in higher elevation locations. The precipitation will then tend to slacken off or even stop completely during the mid-day and early afternoon hours and then should resume during the mid-to-late afternoon hours. By that time, the precipitation should fall mainly as liquid; however, there still can be some freezing on untreated surfaces; especially, across the northern and western suburbs of the metro region.
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Temperatures have held near 50 degrees this afternoon following the passage of a cold frontal system and will drop noticeably after dark. High pressure is building southward and pushing drier and colder air into the low-levels of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, low pressure in the Tennessee Valley is drawing warmer into the upper parts of the atmosphere. Moisture is advancing rapidly in a west-to-east fashion across the Ohio Valley and should arrive in the DC metro region after midnight. As temperatures drop to near freezing, the precipitation is likely to arrive as a brief period of snow and then sleet and freezing rain. On Saturday, as temperatures hover near the freezing mark, freezing rain is liable to be the main precipitation type although sleet can mix in at times and a light glaze of ice is likely to form on untreated road surfaces trees and bushes. Travel conditions could get slippery on any untreated road surface. The precipitation should lighten up tomorrow night, but there can still be some residual freezing rain possibly mixed with sleet and temperatures will hold near freezing.
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An Arctic cold frontal has passed through the region and there will be big changes in temperatures today compared to yesterday. The near record warmth of yesterday is gone and N-NW winds will drop temperatures into the 40’s from early morning readings in the 50’s. Strong Arctic high pressure will build to our north and this same cold frontal system will stall out just to the south of here by tomorrow. A disturbance will ride along the frontal boundary zone spreading some snow, sleet and freezing rain into the area by daybreak and then this wintry mix will likely become primarily freezing rain during the day and continue into tomorrow night, possibly mixing with sleet at times. A thin glaze of ice is likely to form tomorrow on untreated road surfaces (and trees, bushes) and travel conditions can become slippery. Looking ahead, much milder weather will return by the middle of next week.
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A major ice storm will unfold over the next few days for much of the country from northern Texas to Ohio and by Saturday, some icing can take place right here in the Mid-Atlantic region though not nearly on the same scale as to our west. The main culprit will be building Arctic high pressure to our north and this will produce shallow, but very cold, low-level air in the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions following on the heels of a cold frontal passage early tomorrow. This frontal system will stall out in the southern Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend and multiple disturbances will ride along its boundary zone bringing us the potential for some snow and ice. The greatest potential for problems this weekend in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor could very well turn out to be across the DC metro region as higher precipitation amounts are likely down there as compared with places farther to the northeast.
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Today will be the warmest day of the week with afternoon highs climbing well past the 60 degree mark. A strong cold front, however, will cross the region early tomorrow and much colder conditions will return for the weekend as strong Arctic high pressure builds to our north. A frontal system will stall out nearby this weekend and a couple of disturbances will ride along its frontal boundary zone and the result could be some snow, ice and/or freezing rain around here. At this time, the precipitation amounts expected for this weekend appear to be on the light side, but it doesn't take much to cause some trouble. Looking ahead, the much coveted “January thaw” looks like it may head our way next week and last for several days, but a cold pattern is likely to return later this month.
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Our topsy-turvy temperature pattern will continue over the next several days here in the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures on Thursday will climb to the highest levels of the week with 60+ degrees likely for highs in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but then a cold front slides through on Friday, Arctic high pressure builds to our north, and the weekend will turn out much colder. This same front will stall out nearby this weekend allowing for a couple of disturbances to ride along its boundary zone bringing us the chance for some snow and/or ice – depending on location. At this time, this early weekend event appears to be on the light-to-moderate side in terms of total precipitation amounts. Once the Arctic high pressure system pushes to the east early next week, much warmer weather will return to the Mid-Atlantic region and it could turn out to be the much coveted “January thaw” that we hope for every winter lasting several days. A colder pattern is likely to return later this month.
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Much milder weather is in store for the region during the next couple of days, but strong Arctic high pressure will build to our north this weekend and bring us a return to much colder weather conditions and there could be a period of snow, ice and/or rain on both days. Temperatures today should climb to the 50 degree mark for highs and then a warm front will arrive by early tonight bringing us more rain from the end of the day well into tonight. Behind the warm front, temperatures on Thursday will soar to the 60's, but then a cold front slides through early Friday as Arctic high pressure begins to expand eastward to our north from the Great Lakes region. As a result, the weekend will turn out much colder and there is likely to be some snow, ice and/or rain on both days of the weekend as a frontal system stalls nearby allowing multiple disturbances to ride along its boundary zone. Looking ahead, it looks like it'll turn much warmer again here next week, but that will be a temporary "January thaw". Elsewhere, much of Europe has already experienced severe cold this winter and the next few weeks are likely to feature newsmaking cold and snow.
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