A thin layer of warm air in the lower part of the atmosphere has helped to produce sleet in many areas during the past several hours and this will cut way down on the potential snow totals for this storm. In fact, freezing rain has also gotten into the mix in some portions of the I-95 corridor. As the rapidly intensifying low pressure system pulls northeast this morning, the sleet - which will be heavy at times - should change to snow in many areas to the northwest of Route I-95 and additional snow accumulations are still likely, but nothing like earlier prospects. The good news about sleet is that it bounces off of tree limbs, but rain, of course, is not good news as it'll help to weigh down tree limbs that received snow cover last night. Roads are quite slippery in many areas with a coating of packed down snow and sleet.
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If there is one important real-time observation this evening, it is that the low pressure system may be forming a bit to the east of model forecasts which would bring about a slightly colder solution for many (i.e., more snow and less sleet, rain); for example, near some of the coastal regions and in the DC metro region.Low pressure is now forming off the coast of South Carolina and it will intensify rapidly over the next 12-24 hours as it moves slowly northeastward. The central pressure of the developing low pressure system is now at about 29.83 inches and it should deepen to about 29.18 inches by early tomorrow morning and then to near 28.94 inches by early tomorrow evening. There is some precipitation already showing up in the DC and Philly metro regions that is taking on all forms (i.e., rain, sleet and snow), but it is rather spotty and will become heavier and steadier near and after midnight.
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All systems are go for a major storm to roar up the east coast tonight and Tuesday and it should result in a substantial snowfall for the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston. The “sweet spot” for heaviest snowfall amounts should end up being just to the north and west of Route I-95 where more than a foot can fall in many suburban locations of the big cities. The precipitation may begin as a mix in the DC metro region, but then should become primarily snow and it should be primarily in the form of snow throughout the event in Philly and NYC. Just to the south and east of Route I-95, mixing with rain or ice will be an issue and there will be a sharp drop off in snowfall totals from that narrow zone to the coastline. In addition to the heavy precipitation, winds will become a problem with this powerful coastal storm and power outages are even a possibility in areas with heavy, wet snow accumulations and strong wind gusts. While the brunt of the storm will be later tonight and tomorrow morning in terms of the heaviest snowfall, there will be enough instability in the upper-levels of the atmosphere that some “wrap around” snow is quite likely later Tuesday and even on Wednesday which can add some to the total accumulation amounts. It stays very cold following the storm on Wednesday and Thursday.
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All signs continue to point to a major storm roaring up the east coast Monday night and Tuesday and it should result in a substantial snowfall for the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston. The “sweet spot” for heaviest snowfall amounts could end up being just to the north and west of Route I-95 where more than a foot can fall in the suburbs of the big cities. Mixing with rain or ice can become an issue to the areas just south and east of Route I-95 and there will be a sharp drop off in snowfall totals from that narrow zone to the coastline, but odds favor primarily snow in and to the north and west of the big cities. In addition to the heavy precipitation, winds will become a problem with this powerful coastal storm and power outages are even a possibility in areas with heavy, wet snow accumulations and strong wind gusts. While the brunt of the storm will be Monday night and Tuesday morning in terms of heaviest snow, there will be enough instability in the upper-levels of the atmosphere that some “wrap around” snow is quite likely later Tuesday and Wednesday that can add some accumulations to the totals. It stays very cold following the storm on Wednesday and Thursday as well and, believe it or not, there could be another threat of snow for next weekend.
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All signs continue to point to a major storm along the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Tuesday and it could result in a substantial snowfall for parts the I-95 corridor. This storm looks like it will have the potential to produce 1-2 feet of snow, but exactly where that heaviest snowfall sets up is still in question as the storm track could be anywhere from just inland to just off the Mid-Atlantic coastline - and this difference can be crucial to the I-95 corridor. The end result is that there is likely to be a sharp snow accumulation gradient with this storm – perhaps setting up from right along Route I-95 to the coast. By the way, the last great snowstorm during the month of March for the Mid-Atlantic region was the so-called "Storm of the Century" in March 1993.
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Low pressure that formed along an Arctic frontal boundary zone is now pushing to the east and colder air has worked into the region from the north-to-the-south. There can be a mix of rain and snow this morning with a change to all snow likely before precipitation winds down and there can be coating to an inch or so mainly on non-paved surfaces. After Arctic cold air floods the area tonight and Saturday, the next storm system will be suppressed well to the south - sparing the region of any late weekend snowfall. A third and powerful storm is likely to develop near the Mid-Atlantic coast in the late Monday night or Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air in place – in other words, big potential from a monster-looking storm. Stay tuned, one of the trends to watch over the next few days will the exact storm track as one just inland could bring enough warmer air in from the ocean for a changeover of snow-to-rain along and east of I-95.
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The next week or so could actually end up being the worst stretch of winter all season long for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. An Arctic front will slowly press through the region late tonight and Friday as low pressure rides along the boundary zone likely producing accumulating snow all the way down into the DC metro region. Rain will develop at the onset during the overnight hours in the DC, Philly, NYC corridor, but then as colder air filters in from the north, there will be a changeover to snow from north-to-south. Snow can continue into the mid-day hours on Friday in the I-95 corridor and there can be a few additional snow showers during the afternoon - perhaps even a heavier snow squall. Arctic air will completely overtake the region tomorrow night and punish us throughout the upcoming weekend with temperatures some 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Yet another storm threatens the I-95 corridor in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air in place – in other words, big potential.
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There are three different low pressure systems to monitor for the period extending from later tonight into the middle part of next week and accumulating snow is certainly on the table, but perhaps the biggest story of all could be the impressive Arctic blast that is coming for the weekend. Air trajectory maps show that the air coming into the Mid-Atlantic region for the weekend has its origins in the Canadian Arctic where they have experienced some of the coldest March weather in decades. An Arctic front will slide through the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday – accompanied by strengthening low pressure – and its passage will usher in air that will likely be some 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The low pressure that forms along this Arctic frontal boundary zone later tonight will generate rain at first in the region, but then as colder air filters in from the north, a mixing with or changeover to snow is possible during Friday morning and that transition would occur from north-to-south. A mix of rain and snow is possible into the mid-day hours on Friday and there can be a snow shower or two during the afternoon. It is possible that some suburban locations receive a coating of wet snow on non-paved surfaces during this Friday event. After Arctic cold air overtakes the area on Friday night and Saturday, the next storm system will be suppressed well to the south - sparing the region of any late weekend snowfall. A third system is likely to develop in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday night or Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air in place - in other words, lots of potential.
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There are three different low pressure systems to monitor for the period extending from tomorrow night into the middle part of next week and accumulating snow is certainly on the table for the I-95 strip from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but perhaps the biggest story of all could be the Arctic blast that is coming for the weekend. “Air trajectory” maps show that the air coming into the Mid-Atlantic region for the weekend has its origins in the Canadian Arctic where they have experienced some of the coldest March weather in decades. An Arctic front will slide through the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday – accompanied by strengthening low pressure – and its passage will usher in air that will likely be some 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The low pressure that forms along this Arctic frontal boundary zone will generate rain at first in the Mid-Atlantic region, but then as colder air filters in from the north, a changeover to snow is likely early Friday and there can be some grassy accumulations in much of the I-95 corridor. After Arctic cold air pours into the area on Friday night and Saturday, the next storm system will be suppressed well to the south - sparing the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor of any snow. A third system is likely to develop in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday night or Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air to in place.
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Winter is not over yet and there are three threats to monitor in the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from Thursday night through early next week. The first wave of low pressure is likely to arrive late Thursday night with little cold air in place, but it’ll actually turn colder during this event. As a result, this late week system is liable to result in mostly rain, but a mix or changeover to sleet and/or snow is not out of the question in the far northern and western suburbs. After a very cold day on Saturday, a second and stronger system looks like it will take a southern route and the DC metro region is liable to escape without any snowfall. Finally, there is an increasing chance that a third and potentially rapidly intensifying storm arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday/Tuesday time period of next week and there should be enough cold air in place for the possibility of snow. Stay tuned.
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