Earlier this year, we experienced a dramatic weekend temperature drop here in the I-95 corridor following the passage of a strong back door cold front that brought temperatures down from the 70’s to the 30’s in just a several hour period. Though perhaps not quite as dramatic, this upcoming weekend could very well feature a big change in temperatures between Saturday afternoon and Sunday following the passage of another back door cool front. In addition, the arrival of this back door cool front could result in severe thunderstorm activity late tomorrow into tomorrow night in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.
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It looks like quite an unsettled weather pattern around here for the next 7 days or so with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The cool frontal system that passed through the region on Thursday will stall out just to our south later today and return north as a warm front by early tomorrow. As a result, clouds will thicken up tonight and showers are possible after midnight along with the threat of a thunderstorm as the warm front arrives. On Saturday, early clouds and possible showers will give way to much warmer and more humid conditions as very warm air floods the region and then strong thunderstorms could develop late in the day and tomorrow night as the same front begins to turn around as a southward-moving cool front. This cool front will slide south of here on Sunday bringing much cooler air back into the region and the threat for showers will continue. In fact, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of next week as the unsettled pattern takes hold.
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Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity and coverage across western sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and they are headed towards the I-95 corridor region from DC to Philly. These thunderstorms are associated with a cool frontal system which is slowly dropping southeastward over the Ohio Valley. With the heating in the lower atmosphere this afternoon in the I-95 corridor; especially, to the south of the PA/MD border, there should be enough instability to support the convection now firing up in places like central and western Pennsylvania. The timetable for this threat of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity is 3-8 pm in the DC metro region and 4-9 pm in the Philly metro region. The greatest threat from these potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts and hail. In areas to the north of the Philly metro region (e.g., New York City) and at the coastline, the atmosphere is more stable with persistent cooler temperatures and the threat for severe weather is considerably lower.
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A cool front will close in on the area today and it will likely be preceded by a couple rounds of showers in our area at just about any time of day and strong-to-severe thunderstorms are also possible later today and early tonight. This same front will then stall to our south late tomorrow and result in unsettled conditions around here this weekend as it meanders back-and-forth. First, the front will return as a warm front on Saturday pushing from south-to-north and then it will then turn around again and try to drop southward a second time as a cool front later Sunday. The proximity of this meandering frontal boundary zone this weekend will raise chances here for showers and thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday and some of the rain can be on the heavy side.
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High pressure will continue to control our weather today and it’ll be another day with warm conditions and plenty of sunshine. A cool front will arrive in the region on Thursday night and it should be preceded by a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will then return for the end of the week and the beginning of the weekend following the passage of the cold frontal system; however, the same cool front will stall out in the area and that may result in some unsettled conditions around here later in the weekend.
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High pressure will edge into the region today and take control our weather into later Thursday. A cold front will arrive in the region on Thursday night and it should be preceded by a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will return for the end of the week and beginning of the weekend following the passage of the cold frontal system.
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A cool front passed through the region last night and it’ll be a bit on the cool side as we begin the new work week. High pressure will edge into the region on Tuesday and control our weather into Thursday. A cold front will approach the region by Thursday night raising our chances again for occasional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
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A cool front is moving slowly towards the region today and it will grudgingly slide through in the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front; primarily, holding off until the evening hours. This front will stall just to our south this weekend and a wave of low pressure will ride along the boundary zone giving us an increasing chance for showers and it'll be noticeably cooler than the past few days. Another cool front will push to the east coast on Sunday night and it’ll turn even cooler as we begin the new work week. Low pressure could ride up the coast at mid-week with some impact on the area.
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Our major warm up will continue through tomorrow and highs on both days should approach the 90 degree mark in the DC metro region. A weak cool front will grudgingly slide through the region late tomorrow with isolated showers and thunderstorms and then it'll stall just to our south. This will keep us very unsettled this weekend with a good chance of showers on both Saturday and Sunday, maybe even a thunderstorm or two. It'll also turn cooler this weekend following the frontal passage and given the expected cloudy skies with highs closer to normal for early May.
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A major warm up began in the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday afternoon after a cool start to the day and it’ll continue right through the rest of the work week. In fact, temperatures today, tomorrow and Friday should reach well into the 80's in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and there may be several spots around here that flirt with the 90 degree mark for highs. There will also be a noticeable SW breeze at times over the next few days on the back side of strong high pressure over the western Atlantic. A weak cool front could generate spotty showers and thunderstorms around here late Friday/Friday night and the weekend will turn cooler with the chance of showers on both days. Elsewhere, it has been a slow tornado season so far this year across the central and southern Plains, but there could be a widespread severe weather outbreak later today as a clash develops in that part of the country between very warm, humid advancing northward from the Gulf of Mexico air and a cold air mass sliding eastward across the southwestern US.
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