We did indeed surpass the record for wettest year ever this weekend, but now we’ll have a few days to dry out before yet another large-scale rain event takes place. A strong cold front is passing through the region today and winds will pick up in intensity as the day progresses from a northwesterly direction. It’ll turn colder-than-normal by tonight and the chill will stick around through mid-week. Another widespread rain event is coming here later in the week as milder air pushes northward along the eastern seaboard. The likely timetable for this next rain event is Thursday night and Friday and showers may linger into Saturday. One final note, Comet 46P/Wirtanen made its closest approach to Earth on Sunday and there may be an opportunity to look for it later tonight following many recent cloudy nights...best bet is to look near Pleiades late in the evening.
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A complex weather pattern is unfolding for the weekend that will feature multiple surface low pressure systems supported all weekend by the volatile combination of a deep and slow-moving wave of upper-level energy. As a result, the threat for precipitation will extend from late today into Sunday night and it is likely to come in two waves. The front end is likely to feature occasional plain rain in the Mid-Atlantic region from late today into early tomorrow night, but the back end forecast becomes a bit trickier for the period from late tomorrow night into Sunday night. Colder air will seep into the Mid-Atlantic region during the second half of the weekend and this could lead to a mix with or a changeover of the rain to snow and/or sleet; especially, in areas to the north and west of the big cities along the I-95 corridor. Another cold shot will arrive late Monday following the departure of the complex weekend storm and NW winds will become quite strong by Monday night and early Tuesday as Arctic air floods the region.
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A broad area of moisture will push northeastward today from the southern states and rain is likely to overspread the area by the mid-to-late afternoon and then continue off and on through much of the upcoming weekend. This upcoming rain event could put the DC region over the top in terms of the record for wettest year ever as only 0.55 inches is needed to break the record of 61.33 inches set in 1889. This unfolding complex pattern will feature two surface low systems - one headed towards the Tennessee Valley and the other to the Mid-Atlantic coastline - and it’ll be supported by a vigorous and slow-moving wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere. Colder air will begin to seep into the area during the latter stages of the weekend and there is a chance that any lingering rain could mix with snow and/or sleet before it winds down; especially, in the higher elevations to the west and north. Once the complex system pulls slowly away from the east coast on Monday, the door will open for another cold shot to arrive from our northwest and this cold blast will be accompanied by another wave of energy in the upper atmosphere. Consequently, winds should increase noticeably later Monday and Monday night and they’ll continue to be quite strong on Tuesday as well from a northwesterly direction and a snow shower is possible.
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A weak system is sliding to our north today and it's precipitation field is generally confined to areas north of the PA/MD border. A stronger system will generate a soaking rain event in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor beginning late tomorrow and continuing well into the weekend as it’ll be a slow mover. The rainfall from this upcoming event could actually put the DC region over the top for wettest year on record (need 0.55 inches to break the record set in 1889). On the heels of the weekend storm, another cold shot will arrive on Monday and it will be supported by vigorous energy in the upper atmosphere which could result in strong winds in the Northeast US and scattered snow showers.
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There has been a bit of a lull this week in the recent active weather pattern, but that will change in coming days and there are three different systems that bear watching between today and early next week. The first system is likely to produce some nuisance snow in areas primarily well to the north of the Mason-Dixon Line from late tonight into mid-day tomorrow and there can be some slippery road conditions. The second and stronger system will generate a soaking rain event in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Friday into Saturday morning and the rain can linger in late Saturday and even into Sunday as it’ll be a slow mover. On the heels of the weekend storm, another cold shot will arrive on Monday and it will be supported by vigorous energy in the upper atmosphere which could result in strong winds in the Northeast US and numerous snow showers.
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High pressure remains in control today and we’ll experience another cold and dry day in the Mid-Atlantic region. An upper-level disturbance will slide north of here on Thursday and there can be a few rain or snow showers across the far northern suburbs of the District. A strong low pressure system will develop in the south-central US later in the week and spread moisture into our area by later Friday. Odds favor rain around here during this upcoming event and some of it can be heavy at times on Friday night and Saturday morning.
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High pressure has resumed control of our weather and today will be another cold and dry day in the Mid-Atlantic region. A weak disturbance will slide across the region late tomorrow night and early Thursday and it could set off some snow shower activity. A strong low pressure system will develop in the south-central US late in the week and spread moisture into our area later Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Odds favor primarily rain around here during this weekend upcoming event and some of it can be heavy at times, but some frozen precipitation cannot be completely ruled out at this time on both the front and back ends of the storm.
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Strong low pressure off the North Carolina coastline this morning will push out-to-sea and high pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic from the central part of the country. As a result, we’ll experience primarily cold and dry weather conditions around here through much of the work week. By the end of the week, moisture will be spreading northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico and we are likely to experience primarily rain from later Friday into the weekend, but it could be a close call for awhile between rain and snow.
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A major storm will move today from the western panhandle region of Florida to the Carolina coastline by tonight and snow on its northern edge will make it about as far north as the DC metro region. The gradient of snow accumulation will be quite sharp on the northern side of the storm with dramatic increases from north-to-south. A light accumulation of a dusting to an inch is possible later today in the District with a few inches possible in the region from Culpeper, VA to Waldorf, MD. To the south of there, 6 inches or so of snow can fall later today in the region from Charlottesville to Richmond. The bullseye region for this major winter storm in terms of snow accumulations will be southern Virginia and western/central North Carolina where 1-2 feet can take place by tomorrow. The storm slowly pulls away from the Carolina coastline on Monday.
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Low pressure slammed into southern California yesterday and it will take a southern route over the next few days from Texas to the Carolina coastline and then head slowly "out-to-sea" rather than up the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Given this track, there will likely be a limited impact around here from the late weekend storm with the greatest chance for some snow confined to areas south of the District. We'll continue to closely monitor this system for possible last minute changes as it remains a close call for this area. Heavy rain will fall across the Deep South and heavy snow is likely along and just to the north of Route I-40 from Oklahoma to interior North Carolina/southern Virginia. The heaviest snowfall may, in fact, end up occurring in the higher elevation locations of western North Carolina where 1-2 feet could ultimately accumulate over the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead, signs point to a major storm to deal with at the end of next week and following weekend in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US likely with rain or perhaps some combination of rain and snow.
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