Unseasonably mild conditions today across the Mid-Atlantic region ahead of a strong cold front which will usher in much colder air for the weekend. As the front arrives later today, the threat for showers will increase and there can be a few strong thunderstorms mixed in; especially, along of and to the east of the I-95 corridor. After a cold, dry weekend, a fast-moving “clipper” system will drop southeastward and into the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night/early Monday and it can produce some snow in the region extending from DC-to-southern NJ on the south side to southern PA on the north side including the Philly area – perhaps even small accumulations in some areas.
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The warm up that began yesterday will continue today as a cold frontal system in the Ohio Valley heads east and towards the Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures today will climb into the 70’s, but there will also be occasional showers mainly after noon and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two. It’ll turn colder and dry this weekend following the passage of the west-to-east moving cold frontal system. A "clipper" system will then drop southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night into early Monday and it can generate some snow showers in DC, Philly and across southern PA, northern MD and southern NJ.
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A big warm up will commence today as southwesterly flow in the lower atmosphere intensifies ahead of the next cold frontal system. That front will generate showers around here later tonight and during much of Friday and there can be a couple of thunderstorms mixed in as well. Temperatures today should make it to the upper 60’s and then 70 degrees is possible by tomorrow afternoon for highs. Following the frontal passage tomorrow evening, it’ll turn colder for the weekend and each weekend day should feature some sunshine.
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All the ingredients are coming together for rapid intensification today of low pressure as it pulls out of Colorado and moves into western Kansas. In fact, the central barometric pressure of this intensifying low pressure system could bottom out near 28.67 inches later today and some spots may very well reach record low levels; especially, across Colorado and Kansas. The combination of a strong “negatively-tilted” wave of energy in the upper atmosphere, sharp low-level temperature gradient, and powerful jet streaks in the atmosphere will help generate this powerhouse storm system that will have wide ranging impacts from blizzard conditions to its north and west to extreme winds and potential severe thunderstorms on its south and east side.
Wind gusts are likely to surpass hurricane-force levels later today in a wide part of the nation from New Mexico/Texas to southern Nebraska and perhaps even to 90+ mph in places like Colorado and Kansas. These extreme wind gusts are unfortunately likely to result in widespread power outages, downed or damaged trees and very difficult travel conditions. Blizzard warnings have been posted all the way from Colorado to Minnesota/North Dakota for the expected heavy snowfall and extremely strong winds.
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It turns a bit milder later today and the warm up will intensify on Thursday and Friday ahead of the next cold frontal system. Showers are likely to accompany the frontal system from late tomorrow night through Friday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed in. Following the frontal passage, it’ll turn colder this weekend and each weekend day should feature some sunshine.
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Colder air moved into the region late Monday and today will turn out to be a brisk and somewhat colder-than-normal day in the DC metro region. After a clear and cold night, clouds will increase here tomorrow and then it'll turn even milder on Thursday with a shower threat by nightfall. Showers are likely on Friday just ahead of a cold frontal passage with temperatures likely well up in the 60's and an isolated thunderstorm is on the table. The weekend looks dry from this vantage point, but it’ll turn colder following the late week passage of a cold frontal system.
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All in all, the upcoming week looks to be quieter than recent weeks and relatively mild except for perhaps a brief downturn on Tuesday. High pressure takes control of our weather pattern today following the passage of an overnight cold frontal system. The air mass for today will remain on the mild side, but it’ll turn cooler for Tuesday and then a warm up begins on Wednesday. BY the end of the week, temperatures will reach into the 60’s, but showers are likely associated with the next cold frontal system.
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Weak low pressure will push across the Mid-Atlantic region today and result in a relatively minor snow event for the DC metro region. Snow should break out in the late morning or mid-day hours and continue into early tonight. Rain can mix in at times this afternoon; primarily, in the District and to the south and east. Small accumulations of a coating to an inch or so are possible from this system, but roads should hold up pretty well given the borderline temperatures and the daytime snowfall. After a dry day on Saturday, a more important system with more moisture will push rain into our region later tomorrow evening and it'll wind down early Sunday. Later Sunday, temperatures should jump into the 60's with breezy and mainly cloudy conditions. A strong cold frontal passage will usher in colder air on Monday and it'll stay moderately cold on Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere, another major snowstorm will take place this weekend in the Northern Plains and there will likely be another severe weather outbreak on Saturday across the Lower Mississippi Valley including possible tornadic activity.
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Arctic cold continues to have a grip on the Mid-Atlantic region and weak low pressure on Friday is likely to result in a mainly snow event for most areas and small accumulations are possible. Snow is likely to break out on Friday during the mid-day or early afternoon hours in the DC metro region and the early-to-mid afternoon hours in Philly as low pressure pushes towards the North Carolina/Virginia coastline. The NYC metro region may escape with little, if any, snowfall from this weak system on Friday. A more important storm with more available moisture will generate precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region late Saturday evening and it can be just cold enough at the onset in areas north of the PA/MD border for a period of freezing rain, sleet and/or snow before an ultimate changeover to plain rain. This same system will produce a major snowstorm in the Northern Plains on Saturday and possibly another severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi Valley. Later Sunday, temperatures can climb to 60 degrees in DC, 55 degrees in Philly, and 50 degrees in NYC ahead of a strong cold front which will usher in colder air for the early part of next week.
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Unusually cold conditions will continue today in the Mid-Atlantic region and we’ll experience another day with a noticeable breeze and few flurries are possible. Clouds will tend to increase later tonight and snow is likely to develop on Friday during the late morning or mid-day hours as low pressure pushes towards the North Carolina/Virginia coastline. The upper-level wave of energy that is supporting this next system will get somewhat “stretched out” over the next 24 hours, but it’ll remain potent enough to likely generate small accumulations on Friday of a coating to an inch or so; primarily, to the north and west of the District, lesser amounts to the south and east where rain can mix in at times. A more important system in terms of total available moisture will head towards the Great Lakes this weekend and likely push rain into our area late Saturday night that will continue on Sunday as it turns milder. In fact, temperatures can actually jump into the upper 50’s later Sunday, but it’ll then turn colder early next week following the passage of a strong cold front.
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