A warm and unsettled pattern is in store for the region for the first half of the week as waves of low pressure will move through the Great Lakes and drag frontal systems into the Mid-Atlantic. The next few days will feature high temperatures not far from 90 degrees and there will be a continued shot at showers and thunderstorms. The strongest frontal passage of the week is likely to come through by Thursday when a cold front drops southeast across the Great Lakes and into the eastern US with additional showers and thunderstorms likely in this area.
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The official Atlantic Basin tropical season was barely underway in June of 1972 when a polar front interacted with an upper-level trough of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula. Within a few days, a tropical depression formed and the system moved slowly eastward and emerged in the western Caribbean Sea by the middle of the month. The depression began to intensify over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and soon became Tropical Storm Agnes – the first named storm of the 1972 tropical season. Ultimately, Agnes would reach hurricane status, grow to a diameter of about 1000 miles, and become the costliest hurricane at the time to hit the US and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania was the prime focus of its wrath.
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An upper-level disturbance continues to have an impact on the region as it slowly pushes to the north over the western part of the Mid-Atlantic. This system is combining with higher moisture levels to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms and this threat of rain will stick around into at least the middle of next week. The rain chances over the next several days will be highest during the afternoon and evening hours as it will tend to be “diurnally-driven” with daytime heating playing an important catalyst type of role. Any shower or storm that forms over the next few days can produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding conditions. Another strong upper-level low pressure system may impact our region by the latter part of next week.
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The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a mass of very dry, dusty air that forms over the Sahara Desert in northern Africa during the late spring, summer, and early fall and it can move westward over the tropical North Atlantic on a regular basis during the Atlantic Basin tropical season. SAL activity usually ramps up in mid-June and peaks in mid-August and sometimes the individual outbreaks can cover vast portions of the Atlantic Ocean and reach as far west as the central US and Central America. The SAL has unique properties of dry air, strong winds and warmth that can have a significant inhibiting effect on the formation and/or intensification of Atlantic Basin tropical systems - at least on a temporary basis. This outbreak of dry, dusty air is more widespread than usual and appears to have formed when strong winds from thunderstorms kicked up the dust to an altitude of about 20,000 feet in mid-June over the Sahel region of northern Africa.
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High pressure that has been to our north in recent days has shifted off the east coast and this new positioning has opened the door for more humid air to push into the region. In addition, an upper-level disturbance that has been spinning over the Carolinas in recent days is now making a move to the north and this combined with the higher humidity has increased our chances for showers and thunderstorms. Indeed, this threat of rain will stick around not only for the rest of the work week, but also for the weekend and at least the first half of next week. The rain chances over the next several days will be highest during the afternoon and evening hours as it will tend to be “diurnally-driven” with daytime heating playing an important catalyst type of role. Another strong upper-level low pressure system may impact our region by the latter part of next week.
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There is a surface low pressure system this morning near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and satellite imagery clearly shows an upper-level low spinning over the central part of the same state. This upper-level has resulted in substantial rainfall in recent days across the Carolinas and westward to West Virginia and southwestern Virginia and it is about to finally make a move to the next. As a result of this movement, showers will move into the DC metro region later today and likely edge into Philly later tonight or early Thursday and once the threat of rain arrives, it’ll likely stick around all the way into next week. In fact, another significant upper-level trough of low pressure is likely to push into the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic/NE US by the middle of next week and this will more than likely continue the wet pattern that is unfolding for this part of the nation.
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Our stretch of nice weather with generally rain-free conditions and comfortable temperatures and humidity levels is coming to an end. High pressure that has been to our north in recent days will shift off the east coast over the next 24 hours and this shift in location will open the door for much more humid air to push into our region and with it will come the threat of more numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. The chance for showers here will increase markedly by later today and that threat of rain will stick with us all the way into the first half of next week and there can be thunderstorms mixed in as well.
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High pressure to our north continues to control the weather around here and it’ll produce another couple of comfortable days in the region. This system will push off the coast on Wednesday and this shift in location will open the door for warmer, more humid air for the latter part of the week and a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms. The threat for rain looks like it’ll return here in earnest by later tomorrow and tomorrow night and then last through the upcoming weekend on the backside” high pressure system.
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High pressure to our north continues to control the weather around here and it’ll stay quite comfortable for a couple of more days. The high pressure system will shift off the coast at mid-week and this will begin a warm up for the second half of the week and higher humidity levels. Temperatures should hold in the 70’s for highs for the next couple of days, but then climb later in the week and into the weekend with 90 degrees possible by Sunday. The threat of showers will return on Tuesday and that threat of rain is likely to last through the upcoming weekend.
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A cooler-than-normal air mass will push into the region early this weekend resulting in very comfortable temperatures for the weekend and also for the first half of next week. While there will be plenty of sunshine during the weekend and the early part of next week, the atmosphere will become somewhat unsettled given the unusually cool air aloft and this can result in a shower from time-to-time. High pressure to our north will be the main player this weekend and early next week and there will be an upper-level trough slowly dropping southward into the Carolinas.
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