Our extended stretch of warm and rain-free weather is about to come to an end as some decent rain should fall from later tomorrow into Thursday and then it’ll turn cooler as we end the work week. A slow-moving cold front will be the culprit behind the mid-week rain event and then high pressure that follows will anchor a cooler air mass compared to recent days. After a cool, dry start to the weekend, another low pressure system could impact the area with more rainfall on Saturday night and Sunday morning and this system could get a boost from leftover moisture associated with Tropical Storm Eta.
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An extended stretch of mild weather continues today in the Mid-Atlantic region as strong high pressure ridging dominates the scene, but it will shift off the coast by tomorrow. A strong cold front will press eastward into the eastern states at mid-week and this system will likely result in some soaking rainfall around here – something we haven’t seen in awhile. High pressure builds back in later in the week and it’ll turn somewhat cooler.
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An extended stretch of mild weather has begun in the eastern half of the nation as strong high pressure ridging dominates at all levels of the atmosphere. Given the time of year with increasingly long nights, this mild weather pattern will be quite conducive to the formation of late night and early morning fog. On the tropical scene, the remnants of Hurricane Eta are likely to re-emerge over the Caribbean Sea later today and could pose a threat to Cuba and southern Florida by early next week.
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High pressure will stay in control of the weather around here right through the early part of next week. As a result, there will be plenty of sunshine each day and temperatures will remain quite comfortable for the early part of November. In addition, patchy fog is likely in coming days during the late night and early morning hours. On the tropical scene, the remnants of Hurricane Eta are likely to re-emerge over the Caribbean Sea on Friday and then push towards Cuba and southern Florida early next week.
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High pressure will stay in control of the weather around here for the remainder of the week and also right through the upcoming weekend. As a result, there will be plenty of sunshine each day through Sunday and temperatures will be more comfortable overall compared to the chilly past couple of days.
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Eta is a “major” hurricane and is edging its way to the northeastern coastline of Nicaragua in Central America. The extreme strength of Hurricane Eta combined with its very slow movement is bad news as it will likely result in catastrophic wind damage, tremendous rainfall amounts of up to three feet in some spots, and landslides in some of the higher terrain sections of Central America. After landfall in northeastern Nicaragua later today, Hurricane Eta will inch slowly westward over the next couple of days and push over Honduras on Thursday. Later in the week, a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta (or its remnants) to turn northward and then to the northeast. This change in course will likely result in a re-strengthening of Eta as it pushes back out over the open waters of the western Caribbean Sea by the early part of the weekend and then the threat from this tropical system will perhaps shift to Cuba and southern Florida by the latter part of the weekend or early part of next week.
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After a very windy and cold start to the week, the day will begin on the cold and windy side, but it should get a bit milder this afternoon and somewhat calmer. High pressure builds into the region later today and this will cause a relaxation in the tight pressure gradient that contributed to yesterday's strong winds in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, this building high pressure system will control our weather right through the upcoming weekend with more comfortable temperatures and rain-free weather conditions.
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The calendar has flipped to November, but the unfolding weather pattern suggests tropical threats are not over just yet for the Gulf of Mexico and southeast US. Hurricane Eta has strengthened into a strong category 2 storm in the western Caribbean and it is headed for a landfall in Central America in the near term – likely as a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher). In fact, there is a decent chance that Hurricane Eta strengthens into category 4 “major” hurricane status before making landfall early Tuesday in the country of Nicaragua. After landfall, Hurricane Eta will push westward and likely reach Honduras later in the week and then it may skirt Belize as it heads back to the open waters of the still warm western Caribbean Sea. It is at this time that the concern may begin to increase significantly for residents in the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast US as whatever remains of Eta could re-strengthen and push northward towards the US by early next week.
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The new work week will start off very windy and quite cold for the beginning of November and temperatures will stay well below-normal. This cold air outbreak is being accompanied by “lakes effect” snows in the Great Lakes and in areas just downstream and some snow shower activity can make it all the way into the I-95 corridor. High pressure will build into the region by mid-week and the second half of the week promises to be quieter and milder.
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A secondary storm formed off the coastline in the overnight hours and is pulling in colder air which could actually result in a change to snow today across portions of the Northeast US. In fact, there can be some small accumulations in places like the Poconos, Catskill Mountains and Hudson Valley region of New York and even all the way to the coastline of southern New England. After this messy system pushes away, high pressure will quickly move in overhead and this will set the stage for the first freeze of the season in many areas by early tomorrow morning. Another strong cold front will move across the Great Lakes on Sunday and push through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Sunday night. Following the passage of this next cold front, yet another Arctic blast will arrive late Sunday night and the first day of the new work week on Monday will feature windy and cold conditions and there is likely to be “lake effect” snows across the Great Lakes.
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