An unusually cool air mass remains entrenched in the Mid-Atlantic region and an upper-level low spinning overhead will keep it quite unsettled here at mid-week. With cold air aloft, any daytime heating will quickly result in destabilization of the atmosphere leading to clouds, scattered rain showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder. The air is cold enough that some higher-elevation spots to the north and west can experience ice pellets or graupel mixed in with the rain later today and early tonight. The weather gets quieter and milder at the end of the week and the weekend is shaping up quite nicely.
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An unusually cool air mass for early May has engulfed much of the northeastern quadrant of the nation and it’ll stick around for a few more days. The Great Lakes, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US will be stuck with well below-normal temperatures through much of the remainder of the week with a deep upper-level low pressure system spinning around overhead. With cold air aloft, any daytime heating early in the day will quickly result in destabilization of the atmosphere leading to clouds and scattered rain showers. The air is cold enough that some higher-elevation interior locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US can even experience ice pellets (graupel) and/or snowflakes mixed in with the rain during the next couple of days. The weather gets quieter and milder at the end of the week.
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After back-to-back soaking rain events, the Mid-Atlantic region will experience quite cool and unsettled conditions for much of this week with a daily chance of showers. An upper-level low will spin around the northeastern states in coming days and cold air aloft will result in instability in the atmosphere leading to the daily chance of patchy clouds and showers. The air mass in the northeastern part of the country during the next few days will feature well below-normal temperatures for the early part of May. Winds will also be quite noticeable during each of the next few days with gusts to 30 mph possible.
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Rain associated with a northeastward moving storm system has spread into the DC metro region and it’ll continue into the day on Saturday. Some of the rain will be heavy at times, watch out for localized flooding, and winds will increase in strength from an east-to-southeast direction. In fact, at the height of the storm, flooding may become an issue along coastal sections of the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula given the fact that a stiff E-SE flow will continue for a several hour period.
By the time we get to the second half of the weekend, a multitude of upper-level lows will begin to consolidate into one as the northernmost system will become the dominant player and acts to “absorb” the other lows. The end result will be one deep upper-level low by the early part of next week centered over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface (and very similar to the first system on Friday and Saturday), an initial (primary) low will push towards the Great Lakes and a secondary storm will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline by late Sunday night/early Monday. As with the first event, this second one will result in soaking rains for the DC metro region and winds will become quite a noticeable factor as well. An unusually chilly air mass for early May will follow the second storm for the first half of next week and instability showers may take place from time-to-time.
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An active weather pattern will continue across the nation into early May largely fueled by the continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the US. One such cold shot will push east on Thursday from the south-central states into the northern Gulf region and this “clash” between the incoming cold, dry air and the entrenched warm, humid air mass is likely to result in strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity from Texas-to-Florida and perhaps as far north as the Tennessee Valley.
This storm system will push northeast on Friday and a secondary storm will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline later Friday night. A similar scenario will develop from Sunday into Monday with an initial (primary) low pushing towards the Great Lakes and a secondary storm likely to form near the northeastern US coastline. The end result…back-to-back soaking rain events for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from Friday into Monday.
Following the passage of the second storm system, very chilly air for early May will flood the northeastern quadrant of the country for the Monday-to-Wednesday time period and the atmosphere will be quite unstable. As a result, there are likely to be some instability rain showers during the first half of next week and snowflakes and/or ice pellets can mix in across some of the higher-elevation, interior locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.
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The weather will improve today with early day clouds giving way to some sunshine…better enjoy it as back-to-back soaking rain events are on the for Friday/Saturday and Sunday/Monday. High pressure will build back into the area today, but its influence will be short-lived. A series of low pressure systems will pass through the area from tomorrow into early next week providing us multiple rounds of rain. In addition to the rain, this wet spell will generally be on the cool side with temperatures below-normal and it’ll be quite windy for much of the time. Unusually cool air for the beginning of May will follow on the heels of the second storm system for the first half of next week.
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An active weather pattern will bring us multiple chances for rain in coming days with the first opportunity coming today into early tonight as a cool front passes through the region. High pressure will build back into the area on Thursday providing us with decent weather; however, this break in the action will be rather short-lived. Low pressure will bring more rain here from Friday into Saturday and then an even stronger system could result in a soaking rain event from later Sunday into Monday.
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Cold air outbreaks continue to work their way from Canada into the US as we wind down the month of April and it appears they will continue to do so right through the early part of May. As long as this kind of pattern holds, there will be an enhanced threat of severe weather outbreaks in the US and an increased chance for the formation of strong storm systems. In fact, more severe weather is possible on Wednesday in places like Texas and Oklahoma as cold, dry air advances from the west and clashes with entrenched warm, humid air across the south-central US. This severe weather threat will then shift eastward to Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama by Thursday afternoon.
Looking ahead, there are signs for a soaking rain event in the eastern US from Friday into Saturday and then a second and perhaps stronger system may form later in the weekend and produce more significant rain in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. This second storm system may feature some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity of its own in its warm sector from late Sunday into Monday and perhaps even some wet snow and/or ice on its cold side in some of the higher-elevation, interior spots of the northeastern US…just as we begin the month of May.
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High pressure will remain in control of the weather today and it’ll be dry, but also slightly colder-than-normal for this time of year. An approaching cold front can cause showers later tomorrow into tomorrow night and a thunderstorm may be generated as well. The late week and weekend are looking quite unsettled with rain likely later Friday/Friday night and then a strong storm could produce soaking rain here from later Sunday into Monday.
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Tropical activity is likely to be nearly normal this season in the Atlantic Basin with competing factors in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In a normal Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 of those actually attain “major” classification status (i.e., category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale).
The major factors involved with this year’s tropical outlook include the development of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which generally acts to suppress activity in the Atlantic Basin due to increased wind shear. The development of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures comes after three years of La Nina conditions. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Ocean features plenty of warmer-than-normal water which is generally favorable for the development and/or intensification of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Indeed, the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature pattern in the western Atlantic Ocean makes the east coast somewhat more vulnerable than normal to what I like to call “home-grown” tropical hits during this upcoming tropical season.
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