The main weather story getting attention this week in the Mid-Atlantic region is the heat that is coming for much of the second half. However, perhaps even more important is the threat of more heavy downpours and possible severe thunderstorms both today and likely again later Thursday. The overall active weather pattern is continuing in this part of the nation as waves of energy continue to rotate through the base of a large-scale upper-level trough.
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Yet another wave of energy will rotate through the base of a large-scale upper-level trough of low pressure later today and this will enhance the chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region. Some of the rain later today can be heavy and some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels with powerful wind gusts and hail. High pressure will then push off the coast at mid-week allowing for a hot air mass from the middle of the country to expand to the north and east. As a result, temperatures should reach 90 degrees here on Wednesday and then likely well up in the 90’s on Thursday and Friday and these two days may turn out to be the hottest days of the year. A cool front will approach the area on Saturday – possibly accompanied by heavy showers and strong thunderstorms – and much more comfortable air is destined to reach us on Sunday following the passage of the frontal system.
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The hottest weather of the summer season so far is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US for the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday time period. The hot weather can extend into Saturday, but it looks like a cool front will approach the region and a transition back to cooler conditions takes place for the second half of the upcoming weekend. The hottest day in this upcoming stretch could turn out to be on Friday when temperatures climb well up into the 90’s along much of the I-95 corridor and the DC metro can even have a flirtation with the 100 degree mark.
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The atmosphere is already quite unsettled this morning in the Mid-Atlantic region as another disturbance pushes through and there can be a shower or thunderstorm at just about any time and some of the rain today can be heavy at times. After a comfortable weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures will remain at moderately warm levels today, but then likely soar well up into the 90’s during the second half of the week…indeed, the hottest weather so far this summer in the Wednesday through Friday time period. High pressure will shift off the coast by mid-week opening the door for hotter air to push east from the center of the nation.
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Showers and thunderstorms wind down this morning from west-to-east as a cold front slowly works its way through the area.. Following the passage of the front, skies will clear later today and tonight, and the weekend can actually feature back-to-back rain-free days for a change - something not seen here too often this summer season. Temperatures will be moderately warm today and during the weekend with highs generally confined to 80’s.
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There is a threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and more numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely late tonight and early Friday. Any of the showers and thunderstorms from later today into Friday morning can result in heavy downpours and localized flash flooding. A combination of ingredients will come together to destabilize the atmosphere and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in the overnight hours. Any storm that forms for the late night/early Friday hours can be strong and heavy downpours are on the table. The frontal system involved will push through the area later tomorrow likely setting the stage for back-to-back rain-free days this weekend featuring moderately warm conditions.
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A potent system will cross the Great Lakes later today at the same time a front to our south begins to advance northward as a warm front. The combination of these systems - along with loads of available low-level moisture - will result in an increasing unstable atmosphere from later tonight into early Friday. While there can be an isolated shower or thunderstorm late today, the main action time period, I believe, will be from about midnight-to-noon when showers and thunderstorms are likely to become more numerous. Any late night and early Friday storm can be strong and downpours are on the table…watch out for the possibility of flash flooding. High pressure will then begin to build into the region by Friday night and there is reasonable hope that the weekend actually features back-to-back rain-free days in the Mid-Atlantic region along with comfortably warm temperatures.
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The active weather pattern experienced in the Mid-Atlantic region in recent weeks remains fully intact as we head towards the end of this week. Heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms passed through much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the overnight and early morning hours and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible from later today through the day on Thursday. Any one of these showers or thunderstorms during the next 24 hours can produce heavy rainfall in what is an already well saturated part of the country. The threat of heavy rain does not end with sunset on Thursday evening. In fact, perhaps the biggest threat of additional heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region will come on Thursday night as a potent system impacts the region.
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A weak frontal system will be close enough in proximity today to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms in the DC metro region. A more potent system will push across the Great Lakes on Thursday and this one can result in more widespread afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The threat of rain can linger into Friday, but there is a chance for a decent weekend following the passage of this late week frontal system to the western Atlantic.
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A frontal system approaches the region later today and it will likely produce scattered PM showers and thunderstorms. This same front stalls out in the area on Wednesday maintaining a threat here of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms and then another frontal system approaches later Thursday in this still on-going active weather pattern. The late week front could result in more numerous showers and thunderstorms and, hopefully, it will clear the coast by week’s end and pave the way for a decent weekend.
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