A strong tropical wave has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the past day or so and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane later in the week...potentially a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall large-scale weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and it is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the “Madden-Julian Oscillation” and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable weather pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October. In the near-term, all residents from New Orleans to Tampa should continue to monitor this current threat closely over the next couple of days.
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The next few days will be on the cool side as high pressure centered over southeastern Canada extends into the Mid-Atlantic region. The week will be unsettled with multiple frontal systems to deal with and the threat of showers from time-to-time. Elsewhere, all eyes on the tropics this week as as tropical system will pull out of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and head northward over the Gulf of Mexico likely threatening the west coast of Florida as a hurricane by around Thursday morning.
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The work week will end with high pressure in control producing plenty of sunshine around here and comfortably warm conditions. However, the weekend and first half of next week will be somewhat unsettled with the threat of showers from time-to-time as we’ll have to deal with a couple of different cold frontal systems. Temperatures will climb into the low-to-mid 80’s later today and then will trend downward from this weekend into early next week with highs on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday likely not too far from the 70-degree mark.
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The atmosphere is about to undergo a significant change over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico which will result in enhanced upward motion in that part of the Atlantic Basin and this, in turn, increases the chance for the development of a hurricane later next week. The change in the atmosphere is largely the result of the re-positioning of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward along the tropics on a regular basis. This undergoing pattern change with enhanced upward motion in the Atlantic Basin may, in fact, result in additional tropical activity that takes us passed this initial threat and well into the month of October.
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Low pressure will meander off the coast during the next couple of days and most of the moisture associated with it will as well; however, an isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out. High pressure will take control of the weather later this weekend and it’ll stick around through the early part of next week. Temperatures will remain comfortably warm for the next few days with highs at or slightly above the 80-degree mark and the the 70’s will dominate the scene early next week for afternoon temperatures.
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Showers have advanced northward into the region associated with a weakening low pressure system to our south and the shower threat will continue into the end of the week as a secondary low forms over the western Atlantic. Temperatures will generally remain on the cool side of normal given the extensive cloud cover that is expected during the new few days and the persistent onshore flow. High pressure will try to take control of the weather this weekend with the continuation of comfortable temperatures and partial sunshine on both days.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season became more active during the past couple of weeks after a relatively quiet stretch since mid-August and it looks like the increased action will persist into October. In fact, the evolving overall weather pattern has a chance to produce a serious tropical threat in about 7 to 10 days with the likely region of interest for initial formation and intensification extending from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. The movement of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics will create a change in the atmosphere that will lead to enhanced upward motion later next week over the still very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This pattern change will enhance the chances for tropical storm formation and intensification in this part of the Atlantic Basin. All residents across the Gulf and US east coasts should keep an eye on any tropical storm formation next week as the potential for a powerful storm system is quite high.
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Low pressure that formed near the Carolina coastline has pushed inland in the overnight hours to a position over upstate South Carolina. Its rain shield is making some progress up the coast, but high pressure to the north and east is acting as a barrier to the northward advance. The threat of showers will increase here today and continue through mid-week with the heaviest total rainfall amounts likely ending up across the southern half of the DC metro region and lesser amounts across the northern Maryland suburbs.
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The week will start off on the quiet side with high pressure remaining in control leading to more rain-free and comfortable weather conditions around here although clouds will be abundant. Low pressure is intensifying along the Carolina coastline and this system will bring changes to the overall pattern with some beneficial rainfall on the way. The low makes a move inland later tonight in a northwesterly direction and rain is going to push slowly up the east coast. The threat of rain that begins here late tonight will stick around for a few days thanks to a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere and some of the rain that falls in this unsettled stretch can be on the heavy side.
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Strong high pressure centered to our northeast will continue to control the weather around here right through the upcoming weekend. By early next week, with the strong high pressure system still positioned to our north and east, a tropical disturbance is likely to form somewhere near the Southeast US coastline. This system should then push slowly to the north potentially bringing some beneficial rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region by later Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
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