Florence continues to move at a pretty good clip this morning at 17 mph in a west-to-northwest direction and towards the Carolina coastline as a major (category 4) hurricane. It is likely to reach the North/South Carolina border region early Friday and slow down dramatically as it encounters blocking high pressure to the north. From this point, Florence is likely to crawl southwestward along the Carolina coastline leading to an extended period of heavy rain and strong winds for coastal sections in the Carolinas. By late in the weekend or early next week, Florence is likely to head inland in a weakened state - perhaps as far south as over Georgia – and then eventually loop back around to the east before likely finally exiting the US around the middle of next week.
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Hurricane Florence has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours from category 2 status to “major” category 4. As Florence moves over very warm waters over the next couple of days, it should remain as a “major” hurricane and a climb to category 5 status is not out of the question. All signs continue to point to a WNW track for Florence over the next few days with a possible landfall late Thursday/early Friday along the Carolina coastline. Once Florence reaches the Carolinas, it’ll run into an “atmospheric road block” as very strong high pressure ridging is setting up to the north across the northwestern Atlantic and southeastern part of Canada. As a result of the slow down, Florence is likely to generate tremendous amounts of rainfall in the Carolinas and perhaps into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., Virginia) over an extended period of time.
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All eyes are focused on Hurricane Florence as it churns slowly towards the US east coast with a possible landfall on Thursday somewhere along the Carolina coastline - perhaps with "major" hurricane status. Very strong high pressure ridging is now building at upper levels of the atmosphere across southeastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic and this will be a key player in the push of Florence towards the east coast over the next few days. In addition, this very strong high pressure ridge will act as an “atmospheric brick wall” for Florence once it reaches the coast and the brakes will be put on any attempt at a northward advance. This likely slow down in the northward advance of Florence will allow for an extended period of rainfall and the result could be excessive amounts in the Carolinas and much of the Mid-Atlantic region between late this week and early next week.
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Florence was downgraded in the overnight hours to “tropical storm” status, but it is quite likely to return to “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) in coming days. The evolving upper-level weather pattern will allow for Florence to head westward towards the US east coast over the next several days and it could have a significant impact during the latter part of the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Gordon is currently drifting slowly to the north over Arkansas and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall through early next week extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition, there are two other tropical systems in the eastern Atlantic that are very likely to intensify to hurricane level in coming days. The first of these trailing systems is likely to head on a “southern” track taking it towards the Caribbean Sea and there is a chance that the last system of the four will curve northward to the open Atlantic.
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Hurricane Florence continues to churn slowly to the northwest over the central Atlantic and it remains a threat to the US east coast. Tropical Depression Gordon has nearly grinded to a halt over the south-central US and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall over the next few days extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic. And if that isn’t enough, there is a third tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has an excellent chance of intensifying in coming days as it likely takes a more “southern” track compared to Florence. This “third” system could end up near or over the Caribbean Sea in about a week or so and then it could very well turn to the northwest and towards the Southeast US.
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Hurricane Florence continues to churn slowly to the northwest over the central Atlantic and it remains a threat to the US east coast. Tropical Depression Gordon has nearly grinded to a halt over the south-central US and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall over the next several days extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic. And if that isn’t enough, there is a third tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has an excellent chance of intensifying in coming days as it likely takes a more “southern” track compared to Florence.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season comes in mid-September and this year is certainly holding true to form. Tropical Storm Gordon came ashore early yesterday in the vicinity of the Alabama/Mississippi border region and it is now well inland south-central US. While Gordon has been downgraded to tropical depression status, it is likely to contribute to an extended swath of heavy rainfall in coming days. Meanwhile, Florence has intensified into major hurricane (category 3) status out over the central Atlantic. There is still a chance that Florence gets “captured” by an eastward-moving upper-level trough of low pressure this weekend over the north Atlantic, but odds favor it being “left behind”. If indeed Florence is not “captured” by the trough this weekend then strong and expanding high pressure ridging to the north early next week could very well steer it westward towards the US east coast. Any potential impact on the US east coast by Hurricane Florence would likely come during the middle or latter part of next week.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season comes in mid-September and this year is certainly holding true to form. Tropical Storm Gordon came ashore overnight in the vicinity of the Alabama/Mississippi border region and is now well inland over the central part of Mississippi. While Gordon has been downgraded to tropical depression status, it is likely to contribute to an extended swath of heavy rainfall in coming days. Meanwhile, Florence has intensified into major hurricane (category 3) status out over the central Atlantic. There is still a chance that Florence gets “captured” by an eastward-moving upper-level trough of low pressure this weekend over the north Atlantic, but odds favor it being “left behind”. If indeed Florence is not “captured” by the trough this weekend then strong and expanding high pressure ridging to the north early next week could very well steer it westward towards the US east coast. Any potential impact on the US east coast by Hurricane Florence would likely come during the middle or latter part of next week.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season comes in mid-September and this year is certainly holding true to form. There are currently three tropical systems to monitor and other systems are likely to form in coming days. Tropical Storm Gordon made landfall near the Mississippi/Alabama border region. Florence has reached major hurricane status and it is moving on a WNW track out over the open central Atlantic. There is a chance that Florence gets "captured" by an eastward-moving trough this weekend; however, if it is left behind then the evolving pattern could become quite threatening for the US east coast. Yet another system trails Florence relatively close to Africa’s west coast and it will also likely become a concern in coming days.
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The tropical Atlantic has become quite active as we head towards the climatological peak of the tropical season (mid-September). In fact, there is now a tropical storm (Gordon) over the Gulf of Mexico on its way towards Mississippi and another tropical storm (Florence) out over the Atlantic Ocean. Yet a third system follows Florence closer to the Africa west coast – looks like quite an active period for the next couple of weeks in the tropical Atlantic.
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