A tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico has intensified into tropical storm status (named Barry) and it could reach hurricane status by later tonight or early tomorrow. This system is slowly drifting towards the Louisiana coastline and could make landfall in the south-central part of the state by early Saturday as a cat 1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm. With the building ridge of high pressure to the northwest, this system will remain a slow mover and this will only exacerbate the flooding potential. The Mississippi River which flows into the Gulf of Mexico is already running at high levels as a result of heavy snow melt and flooding rains this spring season.
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A broad area of low pressure is drifting westward this morning over the Gulf of Mexico and there is not yet a well-defined center of circulation. As atmospheric conditions become more favorable and the system moves over warmer-than-normal water, intensification will become more likely and tropical storm status could be attained by later tonight or early tomorrow and perhaps (weak) hurricane status can be reached by later tomorrow night. A turn to the northwest by the early part of the weekend could bring this tropical system into central Louisiana and it’ll likely remain a relatively slow-mover raising the chances for substantial amounts of rainfall across southern Louisiana and parts of Mississippi as well over the next few days. Elsewhere, there is a threat this afternoon and tonight in the I-95 corridor for strong-to-severe thunderstorms – any one of these storms can bring heavy downpours to an already-soaked part of the country.
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Low pressure that pushed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico yesterday will get better organized later today and it is very likely to reach named (Barry) tropical storm status by later today or early tomorrow. There are reasons to believe that the combination of favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions will allow for this more rapid strengthening over the next 24-36 hours and this could result in a category 1 or 2 hurricane by the time it closes in on the central Louisiana coastline. With a building ridge to the northwest, there is the good chance that this system will remain a slow mover and this will only enhance chances for some serious rainfall in the Gulf of Mexico region from northeastern Texas to Mississippi and with a focus on southern Louisiana.
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All eyes continue to focus on the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical system will intensify over the next couple of days into named (Barry) tropical storm status. This system is likely to drift to the west over the next couple of days and it could very well have a direct impact on the Texas/Louisiana border region this weekend – perhaps even as a hurricane category status 1 or 2. Whether or not hurricane status is actually reached, there will be very heavy rainfall over much of the Gulf coastal region; especially, across southern Louisiana…stay tuned.
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The main weather story of the week could turn out to be the formation of a named tropical system over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Broad low pressure will drift westward over the northern Gulf in coming days and favorable atmospheric conditions combined with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures will likely lead to intensification by the end of the week. Whether or not tropical storm status is actually reached, there will be heavy rainfall this week over much of the Gulf region…stay tuned.
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Overall activity in this still rather young Atlantic Basin tropical season has been pretty much non-existent so far, but it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will be the breeding grounds this week for tropical storm development. Low pressure will first drift southward to a location over the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and then drift westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and likely intensify into tropical storm status – perhaps even reaching hurricane status. All eyes from the Florida Panhandle to Texas should closely monitor this unfolding situation as heavy rainfall is likely whether or not there is a named tropical system (would be called Barry).
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The main weather story of this week could turn out to be the formation of a tropical storm – potentially even a hurricane – over the Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure this morning over the Southeast US will drop southward to a position over the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. From there, this system could very well intensify into a named tropical storm as it churns over the northern of Mexico and there is an outside shot at it strengthening into hurricane status later in the week…stay tuned
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A more active pattern will develop late over the next couple of days as the region remains on the north edge of an upper-level high pressure ridge. This will allow for the passage of multiple disturbances in the upper atmosphere which can set off the formation of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms through the upcoming weekend. The hot and unsettled weather pattern will actually continue into the early part of next week.
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The holiday week continues to look hot and humid in the Tennessee Valley along with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms. High pressure ridging will become positioned between a trough to our east and another ridge to our west as the week progresses and this will set the stage for persistent NW flow aloft. With abundant moisture in place, the daily threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the rest of the week and right through the upcoming weekend. Any storm that forms in the pattern can be on the strong side with locally heavy rainfall possible.
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The holiday week looks to be quite hot and humid in the Tennessee Valley along with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms. High pressure ridging in the upper atmosphere will tend to expand and strengthen over the next couple of days allowing for temperatures to climb well into the 90’s. By the weekend, there may be a slight weakening of the high pressure system and this will likely result in an increased chance of shower and thunderstorm activity for Saturday and Sunday.
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