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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

11:50 AM | *Stratospheric warming, teleconnection trends, high-latitude blocking – all pointing to a colder and stormy weather pattern for much of January in the eastern US*

Paul Dorian

The overall weather pattern has been quite active in recent days in the eastern US with two different storm systems impacting the area in just the last three days. Numerous signs in the atmosphere point to a continuation of the stormy weather pattern in coming weeks across the eastern US and it is likely to become increasingly colder - raising the chances for accumulating snow. An on-going stratospheric warming event raises the prospects for high-latitude blocking in coming weeks which, in turn, increases the chance for increasingly colder outbreaks into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Teleconnection trends in such indices as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) support the notion for a sustained period of high-latitude blocking which, in turn, would be more favorable for coastal storm development. In the near-term, one storm will likely push to the Carolina coastline on Friday and it may then stay to the south and east of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as it heads out-to-sea - but it still needs to be closely monitored. Another winter storm is likely to threaten the southern and eastern US during the early or middle parts of next week as the active pattern continues.

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7:00 AM | *Cool start to the new week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will shift to the east of here today and southerly flow will develop across the region boosting temperatures well up into the 50’s. A cold front will move across the Southern Plains later tomorrow and it should cross our region as a dry frontal passage. An upper-level low could impact the region later in the week with chilly conditions and the chance of rain and/or snow showers.

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7:00 AM | *Turns milder as the week progresses with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

In the wake of a cool frontal passage, it turned cooler on Tuesday across the Tennessee Valley, but milder conditions will arrive today as high pressure shifts eastward across the Mid-Atlantic region. Low-level winds will shift to a south-to-southeast direction around here today and this will likely boost afternoon temperatures to the lower 60’s. In fact, temperatures should climb to the 60’s for much of the second half of the week and there will also be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms.

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11:15 AM | *Brief period of sleet/freezing rain possible in suburban locations at onset of late week storm system...second system to impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday...a look ahead to January*

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern will continue into the new year for the eastern half of the nation with one low pressure system bringing a potpourri of precipitation on Friday and then a second system late in the weekend that should intensify near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The first system will result in accumulating snow for parts of the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley on New Year’s Day (Friday) and mainly a rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region. However, it can be cold enough at the onset on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region for a brief period of sleet and/or freezing; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border. Late in the weekend, a second low pressure system will likely intensify near the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it would have an influx of colder air – a potential setup that needs to be monitored in coming days.

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7:00 AM | *An increased chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the week*

Paul Dorian

In the wake of a cool frontal passage, it’ll turn cooler and drier today across the Tennessee Valley with plenty of sunshine and highs in the 50’s. As high pressure pushing eastward at mid-week across the Mid-Atlantic region, low-level winds around here will become southeasterly and this will promote some warming as well as some moistening in the low levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures should climb to the 60’s for much of the second half of the week and there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms.

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7:00 AM | ***Much colder air mass blasts into the region today...quite cold in the Tennessee Valley for Christmas Day***

Paul Dorian

A powerful cold front moves through the region this morning and it’ll usher in much colder air for the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will drop through the day reaching the lower 30’s by late afternoon and there can be rain and/or snow showers in the area. Christmas Day will stay on the breezy and cold side with highs no better than the low-to-mid 30’s. Modification in temperatures this weekend will result in highs back in the 40’s on Sunday and likely the 50’s on Monday.

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11:20 AM (Wed) | ****Heavy rain, potential damaging wind gusts tomorrow night into early Friday in Mid-Atl/NE US…power outages on the table…temperatures plunge on Friday as much colder air arrives****

Paul Dorian

A powerful cold front will barrel towards the eastern seaboard from later tomorrow into early Friday and it’ll bring some wild weather to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Ahead of the front, heavy rains, possible thunderstorms and potentially damaging winds will develop and raise the prospects for localized flooding and power outages. It’ll become much milder as well on Thursday with temperatures soaring to the 60 degree mark in the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions. On the back side of the front, temperatures will plunge on Friday from their early morning highs to at or below freezing by later in the afternoon. Any standing water on untreated surfaces that is left behind by the heavy rain event could freeze-up in a hurry on Friday as temperatures take a plunge.

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11:15 AM (Tues) | *Wild weather in the Mid-Atl./NE US from later Christmas Eve into early Christmas Day…heavy rain, damaging winds, strong thunderstorms ahead of cold front…quick freeze-up post-front*

Paul Dorian

A powerful cold front will come barreling towards the eastern seaboard later this week and it’ll bring some wild weather with it to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from later Christmas Eve (Thursday) into early Christmas Day (Friday). Ahead of the front, there will be heavy rain, possible strong thunderstorms, and potentially damaging winds which, unfortunately, raises the prospects of power outages. It’ll become much milder as well on Thursday with temperatures likely flirting with the 60 degree mark for late day highs in places like DC, Philly and NYC. The combination of heavy rainfall and mild conditions will cause a rapid melting of snow and this is likely to lead to localized flooding in areas of poor drainage.

On the back side of the front, temperatures will drop rapidly following the heavy rain event to below the freezing mark in many spots resulting in a quick freeze-up of standing water on untreated surfaces. Snow accumulations of several inches are likely in the colder air mass across portions of the Ohio Valley and interior Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. There can even be a brief changeover to sleet and/or snow in the I-95 corridor early Friday morning as the colder air rushes into the region, but a “flash freeze” is the greater concern.

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