The atmosphere is about to undergo a significant change over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico which will result in enhanced upward motion in that part of the Atlantic Basin and this, in turn, increases the chance for the development of a hurricane later next week. The change in the atmosphere is largely the result of the re-positioning of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward along the tropics on a regular basis. This undergoing pattern change with enhanced upward motion in the Atlantic Basin may, in fact, result in additional tropical activity that takes us passed this initial threat and well into the month of October.
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The overall pattern for the next few days will result in mainly rain-free conditions to go along with very warm temperatures and afternoon highs near the 90-degree mark. High pressure will be in control of the weather around here and there can be some late night fog given the expected combination of mainly clear skies and calm conditions.
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Quiet weather will continue today across the Tennessee Valley and for much of the remainder of the week as well. High pressure remains in control of the weather and there will be a warming trend which will bring temperatures back to near the 90-degree mark for afternoon highs on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season became more active during the past couple of weeks after a relatively quiet stretch since mid-August and it looks like the increased action will persist into October. In fact, the evolving overall weather pattern has a chance to produce a serious tropical threat in about 7 to 10 days with the likely region of interest for initial formation and intensification extending from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. The movement of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics will create a change in the atmosphere that will lead to enhanced upward motion later next week over the still very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This pattern change will enhance the chances for tropical storm formation and intensification in this part of the Atlantic Basin. All residents across the Gulf and US east coasts should keep an eye on any tropical storm formation next week as the potential for a powerful storm system is quite high.
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Quiet weather will continue today across the Tennessee Valley and for much of the remainder of the week as well. Drier air filtered into the area on Monday and the next few days will be dominated by dry, comfortably warm conditions featuring some sunshine on a daily basis.
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A much quieter week is in store for the local region as the remnants of Francine no longer will be a factor across northern Alabama. Drier air filtered into the area in the overnight hours and the next few days will be dominated by dry, warm conditions featuring some sunshine on a daily basis.
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The remnants of Francine pushed northward on Thursday and has grinded to a halt in the western part of the Tennessee Valley as it is being heavily influenced by strong high pressure ridging stationed over southern Canada. As a result, the tropical moisture associated with Francine will continue to have an influence on our weather with a continuing chance of showers and thunderstorms...some of the rain can be heavy at times. In fact, the lingering moisture will keep us unsettled enough this weekend for the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday.
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Hurricane Francine made landfall late yesterday in central Louisiana and will bring multiple impacts today and tonight to the Tennessee Valley. There will be occasional showers both today and tonight and possible embedded thunderstorms to go along with cooler and windy conditions with gusts to 40 mph or so. In addition, northern Alabama will be on the right side of the northward-moving tropical storm system, and it is in this sector where isolated tornadoes often develop. Any rain that falls today and tonight can be on the heavy side with flash flooding on the table; especially, in convective rain bands.
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Hurricane Francine is closing in on the central Louisiana coastline as a strong category 1 storm and maximum sustained winds of around 90 mph. After landfall later today, Francine will slowly weaken as it pushes in a general northeasterly direction reaching southern Mississippi by early Thursday. From there, the remnants of Francine will become increasingly influenced by very strong high pressure ridging over southern Canada and its northward progression will grind to a halt over the western part of the Tennessee Valley. With the atmospheric blocking still in place later this weekend, new low pressure is likely to form somewhere near the Carolina coastline. This system will have plenty of available tropical moisture and its rain field could push slowly to the north early next week…potentially bringing some beneficial rains to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Hurricane Francine intensified into category 1 hurricane status during the overnight hours and it is headed for a landfall late today in the central coastline section of Louisiana. There is an outside chance that Francine strengthen to category 2 status before making landfall late in the afternoon or early part of tonight. After landfall, Francine will slowly weaken on Thursday as it pushes northward over the southern Mississippi River Valley and just to the west of here. The impact here on Thursday and Thursday night will include occasional showers, possible thunderstorms, wind gusts to 40 mph or so, and even isolated tornadoes are on the table. Its northward progress will grind to a halt by the end of the week somewhere over the middle Mississippi Valley region as it begins to become heavily influenced by very strong upper-level high pressure ridging that will park itself over the eastern part of Canada.
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