A strong tropical wave has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the past day or so and it is likely to threaten Florida’s Gulf coast as a hurricane later in the week...potentially a “major” hurricane of category 3 classification or higher. A significant change to the overall large-scale weather pattern in the Atlantic Basin is now underway and it is much more conducive to the formation and intensification of tropical systems. This change is the result of a re-positioning of a tropical disturbance known as the “Madden-Julian Oscillation” and it is leading to enhanced upward motion over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This more favorable weather pattern for tropical cyclone activity will likely last well into the month of October. In the near-term, all residents from New Orleans to Tampa should continue to monitor this current threat closely over the next couple of days.
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All eyes on the tropical scene this week as a tropical storm is very likely to pull out of the Caribbean Sea and move over the Gulf of Mexico. It is too early to say the direction this system will take, but any potential impact here would be during the second half of the week so stay tuned.
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The overall pattern for the next few days will result in mainly rain-free conditions to go along with very warm temperatures and afternoon highs near the 90-degree mark. High pressure will be in control of the weather and there can be some late night fog given the expected combination of mainly clear skies and calm conditions.
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The atmosphere is about to undergo a significant change over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico which will result in enhanced upward motion in that part of the Atlantic Basin and this, in turn, increases the chance for the development of a hurricane later next week. The change in the atmosphere is largely the result of the re-positioning of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward along the tropics on a regular basis. This undergoing pattern change with enhanced upward motion in the Atlantic Basin may, in fact, result in additional tropical activity that takes us passed this initial threat and well into the month of October.
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The overall pattern for the next few days will result in mainly rain-free conditions to go along with very warm temperatures and afternoon highs near the 90-degree mark. High pressure will be in control of the weather around here and there can be some late night fog given the expected combination of mainly clear skies and calm conditions.
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Quiet weather will continue today across the Tennessee Valley and for much of the remainder of the week as well. High pressure remains in control of the weather and there will be a warming trend which will bring temperatures back to near the 90-degree mark for afternoon highs on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season became more active during the past couple of weeks after a relatively quiet stretch since mid-August and it looks like the increased action will persist into October. In fact, the evolving overall weather pattern has a chance to produce a serious tropical threat in about 7 to 10 days with the likely region of interest for initial formation and intensification extending from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico. The movement of a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics will create a change in the atmosphere that will lead to enhanced upward motion later next week over the still very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. This pattern change will enhance the chances for tropical storm formation and intensification in this part of the Atlantic Basin. All residents across the Gulf and US east coasts should keep an eye on any tropical storm formation next week as the potential for a powerful storm system is quite high.
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Quiet weather will continue today across the Tennessee Valley and for much of the remainder of the week as well. Drier air filtered into the area on Monday and the next few days will be dominated by dry, comfortably warm conditions featuring some sunshine on a daily basis.
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A much quieter week is in store for the local region as the remnants of Francine no longer will be a factor across northern Alabama. Drier air filtered into the area in the overnight hours and the next few days will be dominated by dry, warm conditions featuring some sunshine on a daily basis.
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The remnants of Francine pushed northward on Thursday and has grinded to a halt in the western part of the Tennessee Valley as it is being heavily influenced by strong high pressure ridging stationed over southern Canada. As a result, the tropical moisture associated with Francine will continue to have an influence on our weather with a continuing chance of showers and thunderstorms...some of the rain can be heavy at times. In fact, the lingering moisture will keep us unsettled enough this weekend for the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday.
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