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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

6:15 AM | *The 80's rule for the week as high pressure takes control in the SE US*

Paul Dorian

As we start the new work week, an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds across the southeastern states. As a result, low-level winds from a south-to-southwest direction will develop bringing warmer and more humid air into the region. The dry weather pattern will continue as well during the next few days with little to no rainfall expected in the Tennessee Valley.

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10:00 AM Thursday, May 29th - **The initial threat of the 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season likely comes in about ten days**

Paul Dorian

The 2025 Atlantic Basin tropical season officially gets underway on Sunday, June 1st, and there are signs that the initial threat could come as early as ten days or so from now (i.e., June 8, 9, 10th time frame). A teleconnection index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO appears to be foreshadowing the potential of tropical troubles in this time frame as it transitions into a “phase” that is generally quite favorable for activity in the Atlantic Basin. In addition, a second favorable sign may be the evolution of the upper-level pattern of highs and lows across North America which may feature strong ridging over southeastern Canada in about ten days or so. A strong ridge in this part of North America is often favorable this time of year for an “undercutting” tropical system in the southwestern Atlantic, Gulf of America, or Caribbean Sea where sea surface temperatures are generally warmer-than-normal.

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7:00 AM | **A reduced chance of showers for next couple of days....shower and thunderstorm threat renews for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday to go along with very warm conditions**

Paul Dorian

After the passage of a slow-moving upper-level low, somewhat drier air has filtered into the region and the threat of showers will be reduced for today and Thursday. Another system will head towards the Great Lakes later in the week and it’ll throw a couple of fronts into the eastern states from Friday into the weekend.  As a result, there will be a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms across northern Alabama in the Friday, Saturday, Sunday time frame to go along with very warm conditions.

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6:15 AM | *Unsettled pattern lasts though the weekend with most days featuring a threat of showers and storms*

Paul Dorian

A slow-moving upper-level low pressure system will finally push away from the area today, but it’ll be close enough to cause instability in the area and the chance for showers and thunderstorms. That threat of rain will last into tomorrow, but then high pressure takes control briefly on Thursday before another frontal system causes some unsettled conditions at week’s end and during the weekend.

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