An unsettled weather pattern is shaping up for Florida for the next few days and there can be some strong thunderstorm activity as we being the new work week. Upper-level energy will combine with lots of warmth and humidity to increase the chances of shower and thunderstorm activity today and another system will keep it unsettled on Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Arthur will impact the Outer Banks of North Carolina today and then curve to the east on Tuesday and out-to-sea. This is the first official tropical system of the 2020 Atlantic Basin season.
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High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to produce windy conditions in the region and provide enough moisture for the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the Bahamas this weekend and it will slowly intensify as it makes a move to the northeast and out over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic. The eastern part of Florida will be impacted by this system whether or not it ends up getting characterized as the first official “tropical” system of the Atlantic Basin tropical season. Showers are likely today and tonight; especially, along coastal sections, and there can be embedded thunderstorms as well. Some of the rain can become heavy at times as this system intensifies off the coast with minor flooding possible. Expect rough surf through the weekend as a result of this developing system just off the east coast of Florida.
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The east coast of the US will be an interesting area to monitor over the next week or so in terms of the weather as we’ll see a tropical system just east of Florida in the near term and then perhaps a coastal low by the end of next week which could impact the Mid-Atlantic. Low pressure is now forming over the Florida Straits and it’ll intensify over the next 24-48 hours as it makes a move to the northeast over the relatively warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. This system may come uncomfortably close to the US east coast in coming days and may play a role in the development of a coastal low by the end of next week in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to produce a stiff easterly flow in the region and gusts today can top the 30 mph mark along coastal sections. Low pressure will form over or near the Bahamas over the next 24-48 hours and it will then intensify as it makes a move to the northeast. This system will indeed impact the region on Friday and Friday night with "squally" showers - whether or not it becomes the first "official" tropical system of the 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season. Indeed, if it were to become the first named tropical system of the season, it would take on the name "Arthur".
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High pressure will push off the east coast today and this shift will promote an increasingly strong easterly flow of air into central Florida. In addition to an increasing chance of rip currents due to the stronger winds, moisture will begin to climb in the area and thunderstorms will become more and more likely as the week progresses. In fact, unsettled weather will continue right through the upcoming weekend with stiff winds and a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms.
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High pressure will push off the east coast over the next day or so and this shift will promote an increasingly strong easterly flow of air into central Florida. In addition to an increasing chance of rip currents due to the stronger winds, moisture will begin to climb in the area and thunderstorms will become more and more likely as the week progresses. Unsettled weather will continue this weekend as well with strong winds and a daily shot at showers and storms.
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The new week will start off with dry weather and warm temperatures and it’ll stay nice into mid-week. As high pressure pushes off the east coast later in the week, winds will increase around here as will moisture levels and the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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A heavy rain event is on the way for central and southern Florida. Today will turn out warmer than yesterday as sunshine boosts temperatures to near the 80 degree mark for afternoon highs. On Saturday, a weak frontal system will move into the area bringing with it an increased chance of rainfall. By Sunday, a tremendous plume of moisture will extend this way from the unusually warm Gulf of Mexico and this is likely to lead to a heavy rain event for the latter half of the weekend. There is the possibility of as much as two or three inches of rainfall in parts of the state by the time we get to the beginning of next week.
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The passage of a strong cold front will bring about a noticeable cool down today and winds will be quite noticeable as well. After temperatures climbed well up into the 80’s on Wednesday, they’ll be confined to the middle 70’s for highs this afternoon. It’ll get back closer to the 80 degree mark for highs on Friday and Saturday and then a significant plume of moisture could lead to a heavy rain event here on Sunday and Sunday night.
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There will be one more very warm day in central Florida with highs reaching the upper 80’s this afternoon, but a cool front will pass through in the overnight hours. As a result, there will be a bit of a downturn in temperatures on Thursday with highs likely holding in the middle 70’s. It turns warmer again by the end of the week and into the weekend, but it also may become quite unsettled by Sunday, Mother’s Day.
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