“It ain’t over till it’s over”. Winter is not over yet and there may be at least a couple of chances for accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region later this week and during the upcoming weekend. One of the keys to this unfolding scenario will be a frontal boundary zone that is likely to set up to the south of the Mid-Atlantic region and this will act as a pathway for low pressure systems to ride along. At the same time, strong Arctic high pressure will set up to our north and northwest and this potential combination could lead to an impressive comeback for winter.
Read More
The overall weather pattern for the first couple weeks of March certainly looks colder than current conditions in the Northeast US which isn’t saying much as we’ve been experiencing record-breaking warmth. Nonetheless, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks into the Northeast US during the first part of March and these outbreaks will likely be accompanied by “clipper” low pressure systems. “Clippers” are officially known in the meteorological community as “Alberta Clippers” and defined as follows: “a fast moving low pressure system that moves southeast out of Canadian Province of Alberta (southwest Canada) through the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region usually during the winter”. This low pressure area is usually accompanied by light snow, strong winds, and colder temperatures. Another variation of the same system is sometimes called a "Saskatchewan Screamer". We better get used to the term "clipper" around here in the Northeast US because it looks like several of them will head this way during the first ten days or so of March.
Read More
The news does not get any better for California. A monster storm will impact the state from late tonight into early Saturday and southern California will take the biggest hit from this system. In fact, this could turn out to be one of the worst storms in years for the southern part of the state with not just the heavy rain, but also wind and possible power outages. In addition, intense rainfall, especially over areas with steep terrain or with recent burn scars, may lead to rapid runoff; resulting in flash flooding and/or mudslides/debris flows. By early next week, yet another Pacific Ocean storm will head towards the state and this one is likely to concentrate its wrath on the northern part of California raising new concerns for the Oroville Dam.
Read More
One winter storm is now long gone, but the overall weather pattern remains quite active for the Northeast US and there will be lots to monitor over the next week or so. First, a clipper system dropping southeast from Canada will bring some light snow to the northern Mid-Atlantic region late tonight and early Saturday. Second, after primarily rain on Sunday in the Mid-Atlantic, a powerful cold front will whip through the region Sunday night and winds should intensify to quite strong - and potentially damaging levels - on Sunday night and Monday. Finally, there are some early signals for a storm to form near the east coast later next week which has a lot of potential, but also many questions still to iron out.
Read More
An all-out snowstorm is now underway in the local region and this system will impact regions all along the Northeast US coastline during the next several hours. Low pressure is intensifying this morning near the Delmarva Peninsula coastline and the atmosphere is very dynamic around here leading to heavy precipitation in the region. Given the strong dynamics in the atmosphere, there will be small-scale bands of intense precipitation and even some isolated “thundersnow” reports. These bands should produce quite a variation in snowfall rates with some areas getting pounded and others in a relatively dry slot. The brunt of the storm will take place later this morning and into the early afternoon hours and then the steadiest and heaviest precipitation will push to the northeast as low pressure slides up along the New England coastline. The snow is of the heavy, wet variety for now and it could weigh down some tree limbs to the point of breakage which could, in turn, lead to some scattered power outages. Temperatures have dropped dramatically since yesterday and will generally stay at or below freezing for the rest of the day and then drop into the teens in the overnight hours. Winds will pick up in intensity as the day progresses and the storm heads to the northeast. Accumulation amounts on the order of 8-14 inches are likely across the NYC metro region.
Read More
Our “January thaw” period is about to come to an end in the Mid-Atlantic region. A colder weather pattern will unfold over the next few days – set off by a significant stratospheric warming event near the North Pole - and it will result in rather sustained cold for the region. In fact, numerous recent years (2007, 2010, 2013, 2015) that featured major stratospheric warming events during the latter part of January all generally featured significantly colder-than-normal months of February in the eastern US.
Read More
Any time a strong storm moves to a position off the Northeast US coastline in January it is time for concern – even in an overall mild weather pattern. Our “January thaw” will continue into next week with temperatures generally running at above-normal levels, but this period will be accompanied by more rainfall. The next good shot at rain comes later tomorrow into tomorrow night from moisture pushing to the northeast from the Southeast US. Following that, there continues to be signs for a major storm system to head into the Mid-Atlantic region early next week and it is likely to bring substantial rainfall to the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. In addition, colder is likely to wrap into this system and this could result in accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the interior Northeast US and it is not out of the question that the rain ends briefly as snow in the big cities along I-95. Looking farther ahead, a colder weather pattern takes hold in the eastern US beginning late next week.
Read More
Our “January thaw” will continue into next week with temperatures generally running at above-normal levels, but this period will be accompanied by more rainfall. The next shot at rain comes late Friday into Friday night from moisture pushing to the northeast from the Southeast US. Following that, there are increasing signs for a major storm to head into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Southeast US during the late Sunday into Tuesday time period and it is likely to bring substantial rainfall to the area.
Read More
It is not uncommon for a “break in the action” to occur in the northeast US during a given winter season. In fact, this extended period of warmer-than-normal weather often takes place right in the heart of the winter season during the middle or latter part of January and has become known as the “January thaw”. It looks like we are indeed in store this year for a “January thaw” with warmer-than-normal weather beginning around the middle of next week and lasting for perhaps a week or so. Beyond that, however, there are numerous signs (high-latitude blocking, MJO, stratospheric warming) that point to a return of a cold weather pattern for the northeast US – one that could last well into February.
Read More
Our topsy-turvy temperature pattern will continue over the next several days here in the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures on Thursday will climb to the highest levels of the week with 60+ degrees likely for highs in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but then a cold front slides through on Friday, Arctic high pressure builds to our north, and the weekend will turn out much colder. This same front will stall out nearby this weekend allowing for a couple of disturbances to ride along its boundary zone bringing us the chance for some snow and/or ice – depending on location. At this time, this early weekend event appears to be on the light-to-moderate side in terms of total precipitation amounts. Once the Arctic high pressure system pushes to the east early next week, much warmer weather will return to the Mid-Atlantic region and it could turn out to be the much coveted “January thaw” that we hope for every winter lasting several days. A colder pattern is likely to return later this month.
Read More
