The next week or so could actually end up being the worst stretch of winter all season long for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. An Arctic front will slowly press through the region late tonight and Friday as low pressure rides along the boundary zone likely producing accumulating snow all the way down into the DC metro region. Rain will develop at the onset during the overnight hours in the DC, Philly, NYC corridor, but then as colder air filters in from the north, there will be a changeover to snow from north-to-south. Snow can continue into the mid-day hours on Friday in the I-95 corridor and there can be a few additional snow showers during the afternoon - perhaps even a heavier snow squall. Arctic air will completely overtake the region tomorrow night and punish us throughout the upcoming weekend with temperatures some 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Yet another storm threatens the I-95 corridor in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air in place – in other words, big potential.
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There are three different low pressure systems to monitor for the period extending from tomorrow night into the middle part of next week and accumulating snow is certainly on the table for the I-95 strip from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but perhaps the biggest story of all could be the Arctic blast that is coming for the weekend. “Air trajectory” maps show that the air coming into the Mid-Atlantic region for the weekend has its origins in the Canadian Arctic where they have experienced some of the coldest March weather in decades. An Arctic front will slide through the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday – accompanied by strengthening low pressure – and its passage will usher in air that will likely be some 15-20 degrees below normal for this time of year.
The low pressure that forms along this Arctic frontal boundary zone will generate rain at first in the Mid-Atlantic region, but then as colder air filters in from the north, a changeover to snow is likely early Friday and there can be some grassy accumulations in much of the I-95 corridor. After Arctic cold air pours into the area on Friday night and Saturday, the next storm system will be suppressed well to the south - sparing the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor of any snow. A third system is likely to develop in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday night or Tuesday time frame and it could intensify rapidly near the coastline with lots of cold air to in place.
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Winter is not quite over yet and there are three threats to monitor in the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from Thursday night through early next week The first wave of low pressure is likely to arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region late Thursday night with only marginally cold air in place, but it’ll actually turn colder during this event. As a result, this late week system is liable to result in a “rain changing to snow” scenario and some grassy snow accumulations are possible in the northern and western suburbs of DC, Philly and NYC. A second and stronger system will take a southern route this weekend and it’ll arrive in the eastern US in the Saturday night/Sunday time frame. This system should have plenty of cold air to work with in the I-95 corridor and snow would likely be the dominant precipitation type; however, it may be suppressed so far to the south that much of the I-95 corridor may escape with little, if any, snowfall. Finally, there is a chance that a third system arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Monday/Tuesday time period of next week and there should be enough cold air in place for the possibility of snow.
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“It ain’t over till it’s over”. Winter is not over yet and there may be at least a couple of chances for accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region later this week and during the upcoming weekend. One of the keys to this unfolding scenario will be a frontal boundary zone that is likely to set up to the south of the Mid-Atlantic region and this will act as a pathway for low pressure systems to ride along. At the same time, strong Arctic high pressure will set up to our north and northwest and this potential combination could lead to an impressive comeback for winter.
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The overall weather pattern for the first couple weeks of March certainly looks colder than current conditions in the Northeast US which isn’t saying much as we’ve been experiencing record-breaking warmth. Nonetheless, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks into the Northeast US during the first part of March and these outbreaks will likely be accompanied by “clipper” low pressure systems. “Clippers” are officially known in the meteorological community as “Alberta Clippers” and defined as follows: “a fast moving low pressure system that moves southeast out of Canadian Province of Alberta (southwest Canada) through the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region usually during the winter”. This low pressure area is usually accompanied by light snow, strong winds, and colder temperatures. Another variation of the same system is sometimes called a "Saskatchewan Screamer". We better get used to the term "clipper" around here in the Northeast US because it looks like several of them will head this way during the first ten days or so of March.
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The news does not get any better for California. A monster storm will impact the state from late tonight into early Saturday and southern California will take the biggest hit from this system. In fact, this could turn out to be one of the worst storms in years for the southern part of the state with not just the heavy rain, but also wind and possible power outages. In addition, intense rainfall, especially over areas with steep terrain or with recent burn scars, may lead to rapid runoff; resulting in flash flooding and/or mudslides/debris flows. By early next week, yet another Pacific Ocean storm will head towards the state and this one is likely to concentrate its wrath on the northern part of California raising new concerns for the Oroville Dam.
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One winter storm is now long gone, but the overall weather pattern remains quite active for the Northeast US and there will be lots to monitor over the next week or so. First, a clipper system dropping southeast from Canada will bring some light snow to the northern Mid-Atlantic region late tonight and early Saturday. Second, after primarily rain on Sunday in the Mid-Atlantic, a powerful cold front will whip through the region Sunday night and winds should intensify to quite strong - and potentially damaging levels - on Sunday night and Monday. Finally, there are some early signals for a storm to form near the east coast later next week which has a lot of potential, but also many questions still to iron out.
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An all-out snowstorm is now underway in the local region and this system will impact regions all along the Northeast US coastline during the next several hours. Low pressure is intensifying this morning near the Delmarva Peninsula coastline and the atmosphere is very dynamic around here leading to heavy precipitation in the region. Given the strong dynamics in the atmosphere, there will be small-scale bands of intense precipitation and even some isolated “thundersnow” reports. These bands should produce quite a variation in snowfall rates with some areas getting pounded and others in a relatively dry slot. The brunt of the storm will take place later this morning and into the early afternoon hours and then the steadiest and heaviest precipitation will push to the northeast as low pressure slides up along the New England coastline. The snow is of the heavy, wet variety for now and it could weigh down some tree limbs to the point of breakage which could, in turn, lead to some scattered power outages. Temperatures have dropped dramatically since yesterday and will generally stay at or below freezing for the rest of the day and then drop into the teens in the overnight hours. Winds will pick up in intensity as the day progresses and the storm heads to the northeast. Accumulation amounts on the order of 8-14 inches are likely across the NYC metro region.
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Our “January thaw” period is about to come to an end in the Mid-Atlantic region. A colder weather pattern will unfold over the next few days – set off by a significant stratospheric warming event near the North Pole - and it will result in rather sustained cold for the region. In fact, numerous recent years (2007, 2010, 2013, 2015) that featured major stratospheric warming events during the latter part of January all generally featured significantly colder-than-normal months of February in the eastern US.
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Any time a strong storm moves to a position off the Northeast US coastline in January it is time for concern – even in an overall mild weather pattern. Our “January thaw” will continue into next week with temperatures generally running at above-normal levels, but this period will be accompanied by more rainfall. The next good shot at rain comes later tomorrow into tomorrow night from moisture pushing to the northeast from the Southeast US. Following that, there continues to be signs for a major storm system to head into the Mid-Atlantic region early next week and it is likely to bring substantial rainfall to the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. In addition, colder is likely to wrap into this system and this could result in accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the interior Northeast US and it is not out of the question that the rain ends briefly as snow in the big cities along I-95. Looking farther ahead, a colder weather pattern takes hold in the eastern US beginning late next week.
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