Low pressure will ride along a stalled out frontal boundary zone on Saturday moving in a west-to-east direction and its precipitation field will likely not extend farther north than central Virginia with little or no impact expected in DC, Philly and NYC. A second low pressure system will likely result in some snow or snow showers late Sunday in areas north of the PA/MD border and a mix of rain and snow showers to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
By the middle of next week, we’ll have to deal with a third low pressure system - easily the most intriguing and potentially significant - as this one will have the plenty of moisture available to it. In addition, the mid-week storm is likely to have cold air in place ahead of it with strong, cold high pressure positioned to our north and northwest. The overall pattern that is unfolding for the mid-week storm raises the chance for an extended period of frozen precipitation in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor including accumulating snow.
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Three different low pressure systems will threaten at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region over coming days and this active weather pattern is currently featuring a powerful storm in California. The precipitation shield from the first wave of interest for the Mid-Atlantic region looks like it will have its northern extent stretching from around the DC metro region to Atlantic City, NJ. The second system is likely to be rather weak and could result in light rain and/or snow from Sunday night into early Monday. The third threat to monitor in coming days looks like it will have more moisture available to it and may result in another snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario in the Mid-Atlantic come late Tuesday night or Wednesday. Meanwhile, in California, heavy rain continues to fall along coastal sections and heavy snow continues to pile up over the Sierra Nevada Mountains with some incredible snow amounts.
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There is ample empirical evidence that environmental phenomena in one part of the world can have a causal connection to another part of the world and several of these “climate anomalies” are tracked by meteorologists through teleconnection indices. Several of these teleconnection indices are currently suggesting that a cold and stormy stretch of weather is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region which may result in numerous winter storm threats beginning as early as this weekend and perhaps continuing into the month of March.
The teleconnection indices analyzed here include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The MJO is related to a tropical disturbance that propagates around the global tropics on a regular basis. The SOI provides us with information on pressure differences across the Pacific Ocean and on the “El Nino Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) state. The AO and NAO indices provide us with information on the pressure and temperature patterns across the North Atlantic/Arctic region. All of these indices are heading into territory which suggests that a cold and stormy weather pattern is unfolding for the Mid-Atlantic region and it could last awhile.
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“Round 1” of our extended winter weather event is winding down and “round 2” is about to get underway. The first part of this long event brought some accumulating snow to the Philly metro region and a combination of snow and ice to the DC area while NYC stayed precipitation-free. “Round 2” will result in heavier overall precipitation amounts with accumulating snow and ice in Philly and NYC and an icing threat for some of the suburbs to the north and west of DC.
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An active and complex weather pattern will bring back-to-back threats to the Mid-Atlantic region early next week and there can be some accumulating snow in each event. The first system will be rather weak, but it can still generate some accumulating snow from Sunday night into early Monday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The second and stronger system will have much more available moisture compared to the first and its main impact will likely take place from later Monday into Tuesday night. This second event could feature a snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario with snow and ice accumulations possible on the front end before any changeover to plain rain.
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This week has been featured some unseasonably mild weather in the Mid-Atlantic region, but a strong cold frontal passage on Friday will usher in a much colder air mass for the weekend and there are reasons to believe that we may be entering an extended cold and stormy stretch of weather. A tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecasted to enter into “phases” that argue for colder-than-normal conditions in much the eastern US for an extended period of time. In addition, the overall pattern is shaping up to be quite active with numerous systems likely to cross the country in coming days and threaten this region with lots of wintry precipitation.
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Clouds will increase late tonight ahead of a quick-moving low pressure system and there can be a minor snow event on Friday in the DC-to-Philly corridor. This system is a fast-mover with limited upper-level support and moisture so it should not be a significant snow producer - perhaps a coating to an inch or two - but still need to watch for slick spots with the frigid cold ground-level air temperatures. The weekend will begin a warming trend that will peak in the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday time period of next week, but cold weather will make a return by the end of next week. Elsewhere, the record-breaking cold across the Upper Midwest will ease after today, but more all-time record lows were set this morning.
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A strong cold front is sliding towards the east coast at this hour and upper-level energy in the southern US is enhancing precipitation on its southern end. This enhanced precipitation will move northeast and into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later today and continue into the evening hours – mainly in the form of snow by the end of the day. The Arctic front arrives on Wednesday and it will accompanied by strong wind gusts, scattered snow showers and perhaps a heavy snow squall or two. Temperatures will then plunge tomorrow night following the passage of the Arctic front and near zero is a strong likelihood in many suburban locations by early Thursday morning.
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Low pressure will slide through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and a strong cold front will trail on its southern side all the way into the southern states. A secondary low pressure system will form along the frontal boundary zone and enhance the precipitation threat in the I-95 corridor later tomorrow and tomorrow night. Precipitation may arrive early tomorrow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as snow or a wintry mix and then change briefly to rain before changing back to all snow as colder air filters into the region on the back side of the frontal passage. A true Arctic boundary arrives on Wednesday and it is likely to be accompanied by strong wind gusts, possible snow showers, and perhaps even a heavier snow squall. Arctic air then blasts into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday night and temperatures could be near zero degrees in many spots by Thursday morning.
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All signs continue to point to the invasion of a brutally cold air mass into the north-central US next week that will make its way to the east coast around mid-week. As the Arctic air pushes towards the eastern seaboard, low pressure may form along the strong cold frontal boundary zone possibly resulting in some snowfall late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the Mid-Atlantic region. This upcoming Arctic air outbreak looks quite similar to the bitter cold air mass that impacted the central and eastern US during January 1985 which followed a major stratospheric warming event - much like what we have just experienced over the past several weeks. This kind of air mass is likely to become a news making event for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and could result in actual air temperatures as severe as 25 degrees below zero or so in Chicago, Illinois – awfully close to their all-time record low of -27°F set in January 1985. The Great Lakes ice cover doubled in the past week and will increase dramatically over the next week.
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