This continues to look like a high-impact and long-lasting storm for the Mid-Atlantic region that will include significant snow accumulations, some serious blowing and drifting, coastal flooding and beach erosion given the sustained and strong NE winds (plus full moon), and perhaps even some thunder snow and lightning. The expected arrival of the storm is as follows: DC 2-6pm, Philly 6-10pm, NYC 10pm-2am. Wind gusts could reach 70 mph at coastal locations by later Saturday and 50 mph at inland areas near I-95. There is a chance for a "changeover to" or a "mixing with" rain and/or sleet for awhile during this storm; primarily, to the south and east of the big cities. Also, given the expected long-period of strong winds and the possible mixture in some areas of snow and rain, power outages are a real concern as the weight may be too much for some tree limbs. The snow is likely to come down at varying rates on Saturday and Saturday night as small-scale or mesoscale banding is likely to set up given the dynamics involved with this unfolding system. The snow can fall heavily at times on Saturday and Saturday night with blizzard conditions and can also slacken off to “little or nothing” at times as well.
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Confidence continues to grow for a major - and perhaps widespread crippling storm - for the Mid-Atlantic region from late Friday into early Sunday morning. Starting time for the snow in the NYC area is 10pm (Friday night) to 2am (Saturday morning). The NYC NWS has now posted a blizzard watch for the 5 boroughs of NYC and Long Island for Saturday into Sunday afternoon - Philly NWS should follow suit. The DC National Weather Service has already posted a blizzard watch for the DC and Baltimore metro regions for Friday afternoon into Saturday night. Computer forecast models continue to show an incredible storm for the I-95 corridor. It looks like it'll be a high-impact and long-lasting storm that has the potential to dump 10-20 inches of snow on the NYC metro region. It is quite likely that somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region there will be 30+ inches of snow accumulation from this upcoming system by the time early Sunday morning rolls around. In fact, most recent model runs suggests 30+ inches are possible in and around the DC metro region.
This storm is likely to include some serious blowing and drifting, coastal flooding and beach erosion given the sustained strong NE winds and full moon, and perhaps even some thunder snow and lightning. Wind gusts could reach 70 mph at coastal locations by later Saturday and 50 mph at inland areas near I-95. There is a chance for a "changeover to" or a "mixing with" rain and/or sleet for awhile during this storm; primarily, to the south and east of the big cities. One other note, given the expected long-period of strong winds and the possible mixture in some areas of snow and rain, power outages are a concern as the weight may be too much for some tree limbs. Stay tuned for updates, prepare – looks like this could be one of the all-time greats.
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Confidence continues to grow for a major - and perhaps widespread crippling storm - for the Mid-Atlantic region from later Friday into early Sunday morning. The DC National Weather Service has already posted a blizzard watch for the DC and Baltimore metro regions for Friday afternoon into Saturday night. NOAA’s 12Z NAM and GFS computer forecast models are out and continue to show a major storm for the I-95 corridor. The 12Z Euro has edged the heavy snowfall zone slightly farther to the north in its latest model run . It looks like it'll be a high-impact and long-lasting storm that has the potential to dump 1-2 feet of snow on the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-New York City. It is quite likely that somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region there will be 30+ inches of snow accumulation from this upcoming system by the time early Sunday morning rolls around. In fact, the latest GFS model run suggests 30+ inches are possible in and around the DC metro region (see snowfall map).
This storm is likely to include some serious blowing and drifting, coastal flooding and beach erosion given the sustained strong winds and full moon, and perhaps even some thunder snow and lightning. Wind gusts could reach 70 mph at coastal locations by later Saturday and 50 mph at inland areas. There is a chance for a changeover to or a mixing with rain and/or sleet for awhile during this storm; primarily, to the south and east of the big cities. One other note, given the expected long-period of strong winds and the possible mixture in some areas of snow and rain, power outages are a concern as the weight may be too much for some tree limbs. Stay tuned for updates, prepare – looks like this could be one of the all-time greats.
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Confidence continues to grow for a major - and perhaps crippling storm - for the Mid-Atlantic region at the end of the week and weekend. It looks like it'll be a high-impact and long-lasting storm that has the potential to dump 1-2 feet of snow on the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-New York City. It is entirely possible that somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region there will be 30+ inches of snow accumulation from this upcoming system. Numerous overnight computer forecast models support the idea of a major winter storm for the Mid-Atlantic region including the European which had a "southern spasm" yesterday, but "corrected" itself in its latest run back to a more "northwest" storm track and positioning of the zone of heaviest snowfall. The timing has changed a bit to a slightly later starting time - likely during the evening on Friday in the NYC metro region. This storm is likely to include some serious blowing and drifting, coastal flooding and beach erosion and perhaps there will even be some thunder snow and lightning. Wind gusts could reach 70 mph at coastal locations later Saturday and 50 mph at inland areas. There is a chance for a changeover to or a mixing with rain and/or sleet for awhile during this storm; especially, to the south and east of the big cities. Stay tuned for updates.
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Today’s GFS computer forecast model run had a slight shift to the south and east in its storm track for the late week system, but it still had DC and Philly metro regions in the “sweet spot” for significant snow accumulations. The very latest European model run, however, has shifted the storm even farther to the south and east compared to the GFS and - while it keeps the DC area in the heavy snow area - it generates a sharp snowfall accumulation gradient on the storm’s northern edge and diminishes snowfall amounts substantially in Philly and NYC and points to the north and west. While the Euro’s shift to the south in the storm track is much more dramatic than most other models, it suggests that nothing is set in stone yet for this potential storm. My gut feeling is that the Euro is now too far south with the storm track and will shift back to the north and west as the event time closes in – not uncommon in the models for big coastal storms - but we’ll just wait and see if this is the beginning of a trend that may be picked up by other computer models.
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All systems are go on the latest GFS model for a major – and potentially crippling – snowstorm at week’s end in the Mid-Atlantic region including the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Low pressure will pull out of the Tennessee Valley on Friday and head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This storm will undergo explosive intensification between Friday and Saturday as it will be supported by a vigorous wave of upper-level energy. At the same time, “banana-shaped” cold high pressure will set up to the north and northwest of the surface low pressure system – a classic signature for Mid-Atlantic snowstorms.
This is the type of storm that can easily generate 1-2 feet of snow in DC-to-Philly-to-NYC strip, but there are still a few days to go and some details still have to be ironed out. In addition to the snowfall, winds will become a major factor as a tight pressure gradient develops between the strengthening low pressure system and the high pressure to the north and northwest. As a result, blowing and drifting is likely to become an issue and beach erosion will be a concern at coastal regions; especially, given that a full moon is coming on Saturday when winds will be at their highest (potentially 60 mph at the coast, 40 mph inland).
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Very cold conditions will continue today in the Mid-Atlantic region with afternoon temperatures generally confined to the 20’s, but they will relax a tad on Wednesday ahead of a weak system that could produce light snow around here tomorrow night. The big story is the potential for a late week major storm as low pressure pulls out of the south-central states and intensifies rapidly near the Mid-Atlantic coastline this weekend. The potential is there for significant snowfall up and down the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston in the Friday/Saturday time period which could include some serious blowing and drifting as winds will get quite strong.
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Low pressure will pull out of the south-central states late this week and should reach the Mid-Atlantic coastline by Friday night or early Saturday strengthening all along the way to a powerful – and potentially news making - system by the weekend. The potential exists for a major snow event in the I-95 corridor in the Friday/Saturday time period, but there are still a few days to go and several details have to still be ironed out. The upper-level feature that will help to generate this potential powerful storm is still out over the Pacific Ocean and it won’t come ashore onto the US west coast until Tuesday night and then it should slide to the south-central states by Thursday night (500 millibar forecast maps from 12Z NAM). As a result, while the numerous computer forecast models are in general agreement on a big storm, high confidence will have to hold off until Wednesday or so as it won’t be until then that there is better data sampling over land of the all-important upper-level system that will play a crucial role. By the way, there is potential for another big storm by the middle or latter part of next week.
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Earlier last week, some spots in the I-95 corridor received their first snowfall of the season as numerous snow showers broke out with an Arctic frontal passage. Yesterday, other areas received their first snow this winter as a period of steadier snow associated with a coastal low produced accumulations of a dusting near the big cities and a few inches at the New Jersey coastline (Atlantic City 2.8"). You get the feeling the momentum has shifted and winter is saying "I am back". Indeed, winter could return in full force later this week as there is potential for a major snowstorm at week's end.
The atmosphere has evolved in recent days to one with high-latitude blocking across Canada and Greenland which is providing the cold air for the eastern US and an active "El Nino-enhanced" southern branch of the jet stream to provide the moisture. The next couple of days will be very cold as yesterday's Arctic frontal passage ushered in some of the coldest air of the season so far. As a result, afternoon temperatures will generally be confined to the 20’s for the next couple of days and it doesn’t look like a quick warm up during the mid-week time period either as colder-than-normal conditions should persist. A light snow event is possible around here during Wednesday night and then the potential exists for a major snowstorm in the Friday/Saturday time frame from a storm that will pull out of the Mississippi Valley and heads towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. One final note - and as far as winter's momentum is concerned - there are signs for another big storm late next week. Stay tuned.
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Low pressure will be pushing off the Southeast US coastline in a northeastward direction early Sunday morning while at the same time a vigorous upper-level wave of energy will be dropping southeastward across the upper Great Lakes. The strength, movement and timing of this “northern branch” wave of energy is critical to the ultimate track and strength of surface low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline late Sunday and Sunday night. As it stands right now, it appears that even though the “northern branch” wave can generate snow showers or steady light snow in the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday, more substantial precipitation is likely to stay off the coast – however, it is a close call and bears watching.
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