7:00 AM | Heavy rain on Wednesday and 60 degrees for highs

February 01, 2016Paul Dorian

Winter is now on a break and noticeably milder weather conditions will continue right through mid-week.  In fact, temperatures on Wednesday should climb to 60 degrees ahead of a cold frontal system.  Showers are likely this afternoon and early evening in the I-95 corridor as an initial cold front pushes through the region.  Another cold front will generate a heavy rain event in the region on Wednesday as temperatures climb into near record warmth territory ahead of a second cold frontal system.  Colder air pushes back into the Mid-Atlantic region for the latter part of the week following the passage of the secondary front.

7:00 AM | Snow showers likely today...much milder Sunday-Wednesday

January 29, 2016Paul Dorian

Snow showers are likely today as we close out the work week from a strong cold front that crosses the region from the northwest and there could even be a quick burst of snow and a dusting in spots.  Winds will pick up noticeably by this afternoon with gusts to 30 mph and a noticeable breeze will continue in the overnight hours.  After a cold day to begin the weekend, winter will take a bit of a break.  It’ll turn noticeably milder on Sunday and the warm up will continue right through the middle of next week.  Rain is likely here by the middle of next week and it could turn into a heavy rain event.  A widespread Arctic air outbreak will then pour into the region on Thursday behind the mid-week storm bringing temperatures back down again to below-normal levels.

7:00 AM | Snow showers possible on Friday...mild weather for early next week...big rain event possible at mid-week followed by another significant cold air outbreak

January 28, 2016Paul Dorian

Snow melt continues to take place around here on a pretty favorable basis with generally a manageable amount each day.  It’ll stay seasonably cold for the next few days, but noticeably milder conditions are coming for the period of Sunday through Wednesday.  Meanwhile, a major storm will works its way across the country next week and it will have big implications all along the way.  First, it will spread rain, snow and high winds into California and then blizzard conditions are likely by the middle of next week from the central US to the Great Lakes.  Rain associated with this storm is likely to arrive here by Wednesday of next week and it could become a heavy rain event which may present a problem depending on how much snowpack remains.  Later next week following the rain event, a widespread cold air outbreak will flood the eastern states with Arctic air.

7:00 AM | Cold, dry today following last night's cold frontal passage

January 27, 2016Paul Dorian

A cold front passed through the region last night and we’ll return to cold, dry conditions for today with some sunshine.  The seasonable chill will continue as we go through the second half of the week and a storm that forms over the Atlantic Ocean should stay far enough to the east to not have an impact on the region.  Temperatures will actually climb to the 40’s this weekend and those milder conditions should continue during the early part of next week. 

7:00 AM | *A touch of freezing rain possible this morning...late week storm to miss us well to the east*

January 26, 2016Paul Dorian

A cold front is approaching the Mid-Atlantic region and rain showers are possible at just about anytime today.  Temperatures are low enough this morning for some of the rain to freeze on untreated surfaces so watch out for potential icing during the next few hours.  By later today and early tonight, any shower activity that takes place should be in the form of "plain" rain.  As far as the late week threat is concerned, it appears that a storm system will form over the Atlantic Ocean, but it should stay well east of here and not have an impact on the region. 

7:00 AM | *On to the next storm threat - Thursday night/Friday*

January 25, 2016Paul Dorian

The new work week will start off with high pressure in control producing dry, cold weather conditions around here.  A cold front arrives tomorrow night and it could set off a few rain showers later tomorrow and tomorrow night.  It’ll return to rather cold and dry weather conditions at mid-week.
  
Late in the week, a storm will gather strength off the east coast – where have we heard that before.  There is a chance that this storm has an impact on the I-95 corridor and we'll monitor it closely.  Most current computer guidance suggests the storm will stay out-to-sea; however, there are reasons to believe that a storm track push to the northwest is feasible in coming days - stay tuned. 

7:00 AM | ****"The Blizzard of 2016" begins in NYC metro region later tonight****

January 22, 2016Paul Dorian

This continues to look like a crippling, high-impact and long-lasting storm for the NYC metro region that will include significant snow accumulations of 8-14 inches - perhaps even more south of town - some serious blowing and drifting, isolated power outages, and perhaps even some thunder snow and lightning.  The snow should arrive later tonight in the NYC metro region between 10pm and 2am.  There is a chance for a "changeover to" or a "mixing with" rain and/or sleet for awhile during this storm; primarily, to the south of NYC, but for NYC and points north and west, this should mainly be a snow event.  The snow is likely to come down at varying rates on Saturday and Saturday night as small-scale or “mesoscale” banding is likely to set up given the impressive dynamics involved with this unfolding system.  Specifically, the snow can fall heavily at times with blizzard conditions and can also slacken off to “little or nothing” at times as well if a dry slot develops.  There may be a sharp drop off in snow accumulation amounts on the northern edge of the storm’s precipitation field in the northern suburbs of NYC.   

At the northern New Jersey Shore and in Long Island, coastal flooding and beach erosion are a major concern given the expected sustained period of strong NE winds (plus Saturday’s full moon).  Wind gusts could reach 70 mph at coastal locations by later tomorrow and 50 mph at inland areas including near I-95 in NYC. Also, given the expected long-period of strong winds and the possible mixture in some areas of snow, sleet and rain, power outages are a real concern as the weight may be too much for some tree limbs. Temperatures should generally be confined to the 20’s during the storm. Stay tuned - there is still a chance that this turns into a 2+ foot storm all the way from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC.