A strong cold front passed through the region in the overnight hours and ushered in much cooler air for the region as well as powerful winds which can gust up to 60 mph this morning. Winds diminish this afternoon and attention will then turn upstream to a fast-moving (i.e., “clipper”) system. This system will drop southeastward across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and likely generate some snow shower activity in the area. The snow can be mixed with rain at times, but it is also not out of the question that there be some small grassy accumulations. Another shot of quite cold air will follow the “clipper” for the weekend - teens possible for lows - and then temperatures will moderate early next week.
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March is starting off on a very active note with the threat for severe weather coming to the I-95 corridor this afternoon and possible “clipper” snow early Friday. Today’s threat comes from the combination of an approaching strong cold frontal system plowing towards the east coast, strong upper-level winds and vigorous energy, and an unusually warm, humid air mass at low-levels of the atmosphere. The severe weather threat this afternoon is greatest in those areas that are currently seeing some sunshine poking through the clouds (e.g., DC metro region) as this will act to destabilize the lower atmosphere. The main threat this afternoon will be damaging wind gusts of up to 65 mph or so, however, just as was the case last Saturday, there is the chance for hail and a few isolated tornadoes; primarily, south of the PA/MD border. After a very windy and colder day on Thursday, a “clipper” system is likely to generate some snow in the Mid-Atlantic region early Friday and there can even be some small accumulations; primarily, north of the PA/MD border.
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The warm up that began yesterday will continue today as high temperatures climb to the 70 degree mark in the NYC metro region. Unfortunately, this warm up will be accompanied by occasional showers and thunderstorms as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. In fact, some of the storms that form later today can be on the strong-to-severe side with damaging wind gusts the main weather threat. It’ll turn colder and very windy late tonight and tomorrow following the passage of the cold front and then we’ll have to watch a “clipper” system which should throw some light snow our way early Friday. In fact, small accumulations of snow are on the table for early Friday across the metro region. A reinforcing shot of cold air will follow the “clipper” system for the early part of the weekend and then some modification in temperatures will take place early next week.
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There could be a repeat performance on Wednesday of the strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity that was experienced in the Mid-Atlantic region this past Saturday. In similar fashion to Saturday, temperatures will surge to record or near record levels on Wednesday and a powerful cold front will close in from the northwest. This type of clash between spring warmth and winter cold resulted in numerous damaging wind reports on Saturday in the I-95 corridor along with a few isolated tornadoes - and the same scenario can take place later tomorrow all the way from the Mid-Atlantic region to the Tennessee Valley.
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It’ll turn much milder today as high pressure pushes off the east coast and low-level winds become southerly. The warm up will accentuate on Wednesday as high temperatures climb to the 70 degree mark in the NYC metro region. Unfortunately, this mid-week warm up will be accompanied by occasional showers and thunderstorms as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. In fact, some of the storms that form later tomorrow can be on the strong-to-severe side – much like this past Saturday with damaging wind gusts the main weather threat. It’ll turn colder later in the week following the passage of the cold frontal system and a “clipper” system could generate some light snow or rain around here on Friday.
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There can be a repeat performance of Saturday in the I-95 corridor with a strong frontal passage at mid-week and possible strong thunderstorm activity. The new week will start off on the chilly side, but much milder conditions will push back into the region for Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Unfortunately, the chance for rain will increase along with those expected milder conditions. By late Wednesday, a strong cold front will approach from the Great Lakes with showers and possible strong thunderstorms and its passage will usher in colder air for the second half of the week. A fast-moving “clipper” system could bring us some light snow on Friday.
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Our unusually warm weather will come to an end shortly as a strong cold front reaches the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor. This front will generate a long line of showers and embedded thunderstorms and some of storms will be on the strong-to-severe side containing heavy downpours, lightning, damaging wind gusts and perhaps even some hail and a few isolated tornadoes. Radar has shown an increase in intensity of echoes during the past couple of hours across western and central sections of the Mid-Atlantic region - and it is all headed to the I-95 corridor.
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The overall weather pattern for the first couple weeks of March certainly looks colder than current conditions in the Northeast US which isn’t saying much as we’ve been experiencing record-breaking warmth. Nonetheless, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks into the Northeast US during the first part of March and these outbreaks will likely be accompanied by “clipper” low pressure systems. “Clippers” are officially known in the meteorological community as “Alberta Clippers” and defined as follows: “a fast moving low pressure system that moves southeast out of Canadian Province of Alberta (southwest Canada) through the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region usually during the winter”. This low pressure area is usually accompanied by light snow, strong winds, and colder temperatures. Another variation of the same system is sometimes called a "Saskatchewan Screamer". We better get used to the term "clipper" around here in the Northeast US because it looks like several of them will head this way during the first ten days or so of March.
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Very mild air for this time of year will stick around through Saturday, but then a strong cold front will arrive and bring an end to the current warm spell. Temperatures today and Saturday will continue at well above normal levels, but then we’ll turn noticeably colder late tomorrow night following the passage of the strong cold front. After a morning shower or two on Saturday, the approaching strong cold front will generate a narrow line of showers and embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours and some of the thunderstorms can be on the strong-to-severe side and contain brief downpours and gusty winds. Winds on Sunday will kick up out of the NW and temperatures will hold in the 40’s. Weak low pressure from the south-central US will head towards us on Monday and it could generate a couple of rain or snow showers. It'll turn warmer again by the middle of next week and more rainfall is likely on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then another cold shot should arrive for the second half of next week.
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Very mild air for this time of year will stick around through much of the day on Saturday and there could even be record-breaking temperatures in some spots in the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon, tomorrow and/or Saturday. With the warm up comes the likelihood of patchy fog during the late night and early morning time periods. On Saturday, a strong cold front will be approaching us from the Great Lakes region and it will generate occasional PM rain around here and even a possible thunderstorm or two as it remains quite mild for one last day. Following the passage of the cold front, temperatures on Sunday and Monday will return to much more seasonal levels and winds will kick up out of the NW as we close out the weekend.
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