Tropical Storm Michael is now headed away from the east coast and out into the open Atlantic and a new air mass will flood the Mid-Atlantic region today riding in on stiff northwest winds. This new air mass will be much cooler and less humid than recent days and overnight lows in the 40’s will take place for the first time this season. After a dry day today, there will be a weak disturbance that can set off a few showers late tonight and early Saturday before dry and cool weather returns for Sunday.
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Tropical Storm Michael is now located over central North Carolina and moving rapidly northeastward at 23 mph with max sustained winds of 50 mph. Torrential rains circulating around the center of the tropical storm are now closing in on the DC metro region and this large blob of moisture will continue moving northeastward over the next few hours. A strong cold front is also pressing east at this time and is combining with moisture from Michael to generate bands of showers and thunderstorms in the interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Hurricane Michael made landfall yesterday in the Florida Panhandle as a “major” category 4 system and today it will accelerate to the northeast as a tropical storm. Its tropical moisture field will interact with a strong cold frontal system advancing towards the east coast and the result will be some heavy rainfall today and tonight in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. In fact, periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms into later tonight may end up resulting in a couple inches of rainfall in much of the I-95 corridor. By early Friday, post-tropical Michael will be working its way into the open Atlantic and the strong cold front will push through our region. Winds will pick up on Friday out of the northwest and much cooler and drier air will pour into the Mid-Atlantic region. For the first time this season, temperatures will drop into the 40’s for overnight lows beginning late Friday night/early Saturday morning and then again over the weekend. A fast-moving upper-level disturbance could throw a few showers our way late Friday night and Saturday before a dry, cool day ends the weekend on Sunday.
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Hurricane Michael is closing in on the Florida Panhandle as a strong category 4 storm with max sustained winds at 150 mph (at 11:50 am). This is an especially dangerous hurricane for the Florida Panhandle since it will arrive at or near its peak intensity. Satellite imagery shows a distinct eye and central pressure has continued to fall in recent hours and is now around 923 mb which would make this the 5th strongest landfalling hurricane in the US. Once Hurricane Michael moves inland, weakening will take place; however, hurricane-force winds should extend from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia. In fact, it is likely to maintain hurricane status as it pushes into southern Georgia tonight - perhaps as a cat 2. From there Michael will head towards the Carolinas where heavy rains and strong winds will occur in an area with very well saturated grounds (Florence).
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Hurricane Michael will make landfall later today in the Florida Panhandle as a “major” hurricane as it continues to slowly intensify in an overall favorable environment and moves over very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Once landfall is reached, Hurricane Michael will become increasingly influenced by an approaching upper-level trough over the middle of the country and will turn from a northerly direction to a northeasterly track and ride up along the Southeast US coastline. Heavy rain and strong winds with hurricane-force gusts will extend from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas which is already a rain-soaked region thanks to the stalled out Hurricane Florence of last month. While the remnants of Hurricane Michael will stay southeast of the immediate I-95 corridor, there can be some heavy rain here on Thursday as an interaction with a strong cold front takes place. Following the passage of Michael, quite cool and dry weather will follow in the Mid-Atlantic for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
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Hurricane Michael continues to intensify as it moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico (now a cat 2) and an eye is becoming more visible on satellite imagery. There is a high probability that Michael will reach major hurricane status (i.e., cat 3 or higher) before a landfall on Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle - perhaps between Destin and Apalachicola – as wind shear in its general vicinity continues to decrease. Once landfall is reached, Hurricane Michael will turn from a northerly direction to a northeasterly track and ride up along the Southeast US coastline and heavy rain and strong winds are likely in the already rain-soaked region of the Carolinas where Hurricane Florence stalled out last month. While it appears the DC-to-PHL-to-NYC corridor will not get a direct hit from the remains of Michael, there will be rain here on Thursday as the tropical system interacts with a strong cold front and some of the rain can be heavy at times. Quite cool and dry weather should follow in the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
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Hurricane Michael continues to intensify as it moves over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico (now a cat 2). There is a high probability that Michael will reach major hurricane status (i.e., cat 3 or higher) before a landfall on Wednesday in the Florida Panhandle - perhaps between Destin and Apalachicola. Once landfall is reached, Hurricane Michael will turn from a northerly direction to a northeasterly track and ride up along the Southeast US coastline and heavy rain is likely in the rain-soaked region of the Carolinas where Florence stalled out last month. While it appears the DC-to-PHL-to-NYC corridor will not get a direct hit from the remains of Michael, there will be rain here on Thursday as it interacts with a strong cold front and some of the rain can be heavy. Quite cool and dry weather should follow in the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
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All eyes are now on the tropics now as soon-to-be Hurricane Michael is heading to the open Gulf of Mexico and it could very well reach "major" hurricane status before making landfall at mid-week. The overall upper-level pattern (i.e., very strong ridging centered over SE Canada/NE US) is one that opened the door for tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico and indeed, this system had its origins last week in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and will now move northward over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Once Michael makes landfall, it is likely to turn from the north to the northeast and should ride up along the Southeast US coastline as it interacts with a frontal system. There is the high potential for heavy rainfall from Michael in places like North and South Carolina – where they certainly don’t need any – and even a chance it’ll impact the Mid-Atlantic region later in the week. It’ll turn colder for awhile behind the passage of this tropical system as some Canadian chill that has been bottled up to our north finally makes its way into the NE US.
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A cool front passed through the region last night and it’ll turn out noticeably cooler for today and tomorrow along with a light breeze from the northeast. There can be a light shower or some drizzle at just about any time today, tonight and on Saturday. High pressure ridging builds strongly early next week over southeastern Canada and we'll turn warmer once again with daily highs near the 80 degree mark for much of the week.
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Another cool front will reach our area tonight and it will generate more scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region. Following the frontal passage, there will be a noticeable cool down on Friday and it’ll stay comfortable through the upcoming weekend as well. In fact, the weekend looks like it will turn out quite nice with some sunshine each day to go along with those comfortable temperatures. Very strong high pressure ridging will set up early next week across southeastern Canada keeping us relatively dry and warm for this time of year. This kind of upper-level pattern with strong ridging to our north always raises a red flag this time of year for the potential of a tropical system to “slide underneath” the ridge and head towards the southeast US. Consequently, we’ll need to keep an eye on the Caribbean Sea, southwestern Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of weeks.
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