The ingredients are falling into place for a significant rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region that should get underway later Friday as intensifying low pressure heads up along the eastern seaboard. The combination of an entrenched cold and dry air mass, copious amounts of moisture to our southwest, and vigorous upper-level energy dropping southeastward towards the eastern US will result in a soaking rain event in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor that could yield 2+ inches in some spots by early next week.
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A cold frontal system passed through the region last night and it has ushered in colder air for the next couple of days. High pressure will resume control of the weather following the frontal passage and we’ll experience plenty of sunshine today and Thursday to go along with below-normal temperatures. Low pressure will form over the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and it will head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline by end of the week. As such, our weather will go downhill on Friday with an increase in clouds and rain is likely from late Friday into Saturday night and some of it will be heavy at times. A second wave of energy will rotate through a deep upper-level trough and keep it chilly and unsettled around here on Sunday and Monday with additional showers likely.
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The ingredients are going to fall into place for a strong storm in the Mid-Atlantic region that is likely to bring rain and wind to the I-95 corridor and points east to the coast from later Friday into Saturday. Enough cold air may wrap into the storm this weekend for some frozen precipitation to interior higher elevation locations of the Northeast US. The combination of copious amounts of low-level moisture, deep and broad upper-level energy, and an unfolding blocking pattern aloft is likely to result in strong low pressure near or along the east coast that will become a rather slow mover. Interestingly, some of the moisture that gets intertwined into this system will come from Hurricane Willa which has weakened very significantly in the past 24 hours (rise of 45 millibars in its central pressure) and is now a category 3 storm just off the west coast of Mexico. This tropical system will continue to weaken as it moves northeastward over the next couple of days; however, it will add some moisture and energy to low pressure that will develop over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week.
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A cold frontal system will approach the region later today and it’ll turn breezy and milder ahead of it and then turn colder again for the middle and latter parts of the week. High pressure will resume control of the weather following the frontal passage and we’ll experience plenty of sunshine to go along with the below-normal temperatures after today. There are still signs for a strong storm to form this weekend somewhere near or along the east coast with heavy rain potential for us and we’ll continue to monitor that threat over the next couple of days.
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The month of October has a way of ending on occasion with very powerful storms near the east coast of the US including Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the “perfect” storm on Halloween Day in 1991. While these two are extreme examples, there continue to be strong signals for a major storm near the east coast this weekend that could actually get a boost of energy and moisture from a category 5 hurricane in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Heavy rain and strong winds are the main threats in the immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but snow is on the table from this potential storm in the higher elevation regions from West Virginia to interior New England. This could turn out to be a rather long-lasting storm as well given the expected very large-scale upper-level trough that will set up during the weekend.
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The colder-than-normal weather pattern that set up after the passage of Hurricane Michael will continue right into the end of the month. High pressure on top of the region today will push to the east and give way to another cold frontal system later Tuesday that will usher in a renewed chilly air mass for the middle and latter parts of the week. High pressure will resume control of the weather following the frontal passage and we’ll experience plenty of sunshine to go along with the below-normal temperatures. There are still strong signs for a big storm to form this weekend somewhere near or along the east coast with heavy rain potential for us...we’ll continue to monitor that possibility over the next few days.
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After a frosty start to the day, sunshine will boost afternoon temperatures to near 60 degrees and it'll turn even milder on Saturday ahead of the next strong cold front. The arrival of the next cold air outbreak will be accompanied by strong NW winds from late tomorrow into Sunday and temperatures will be well below-normal to close out the weekend. Frost will again be possible around here by early Monday morning with temperatures likely in the mid 30's as we begin the new work week.
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Today will be the coldest day of the season so far in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with many spots not able to climb out of the 40’s for afternoon high temperatures. Temperatures will remain well below-normal tonight with scattered frost likely towards morning, but it’ll become milder to start the weekend ahead of the next strong cold front. The approach of that next front will be quite noticeable late Saturday as winds pick up and then temperatures will plunge Saturday night with strong northerly winds throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. Sunday will have a feel of late fall or early winter to it in much of the Northeast US; especially, in the higher elevations where there can be a touch of snow from an early season Great Lakes snow event. Frost is possible again around here late Sunday night/early Monday morning with that late weekend cold air outbreak and yet another cold air outbreak is possible by the middle of next week.
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Another strong cold front will approach the region later today and the winds will pick up noticeably as it closes in on the I-95 corridor. Overnight low temperatures should bottom out in the 30’s for the first time this season and there can be scattered frost in normally colder outlying areas. Unseasonable chill will grip the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday as highs struggle to reach the 50 degree mark (normal high is now 65 degrees). Yet another cold shot will arrive for the second half of the weekend and Sunday will have a feel of winter to it in parts of the Northeast US; especially, in the higher elevations where there can be a touch of snow from an early season Great Lakes snow event. Widespread frost is possible late Sunday night/early Monday with that late weekend cold air outbreak.
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Numerous cold air outbreaks are likely to drop southeastward into the eastern US over the next couple of weeks and there are some interesting signals suggesting a possible strong storm could form near the east coast as October winds down. Long-range computer forecast maps strongly hint at “high-latitude blocking” to form late this month and teleconnection indices known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are predicted to tank sharply into negative territory which supports this idea. Of course, this is still in the “speculation” phase, but late October has a way of ending with some interesting storms along the east coast of the US including Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the “perfect” storm around Halloween Day in 1991. While these two are extreme examples, there is some reason to believe an east coast storm could form as the month winds down and there will be plenty of cold air around.
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