All signs point to the invasion of a brutally cold air mass into the central US next week that will make its way to the east coast around mid-week. This upcoming Arctic air outbreak looks quite similar to the air mass that impacted the central and eastern US during January 1985 which followed a major stratospheric warming event - much like what we have just experienced over the past several weeks. This kind of air mass has the potential of becoming quite a news making event for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Northern Plains and could result in actual air temperatures as severe as 25 degrees below zero in Chicago – awfully close to the all-time low of -27°F set in January 1985.
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There will be heavy rain at times today as a strong cold front heads towards the east coast and an intense jet streak passes overhead. The heavy rain will be accompanied by unseasonably mild conditions this morning and gusty winds out of the south-to-southeast just ahead of the frontal system. The rain will taper off later this afternoon and temperatures will drop sharply as the next in a series of cold shots arrives from our northwest. The next couple of days will be dominated by high pressure and there will be plenty of sunshine each day, but temperatures will be well below-normal for this time of year. Looking ahead, there are signs for a widespread brutally cold air outbreak next week that will impact much of the central and eastern US.
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Despite the fact that it’ll turn unseasonably mild later tonight and early Thursday in much of the eastern US, the overall cold weather pattern shows no signs of slowing down. There will be another outbreak of cold air in the eastern US for the Thursday night/Friday/Saturday time period, but the coldest core of that air mass (relative-to-normal) will be centered over south-central and southeastern Canada. Next week, however, it looks like a brutally cold air mass will plunge southward right into the central US and eventually make its way to the east coast - and the coldest temperatures relative-to-normal will be in the US.
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Another soaking rain event is headed to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and heavy rain tomorrow morning will be aided by a powerful upper-level jet streak. Showers will begin this evening and then evolve into a steadier and heavier rainfall after midnight and then the rain can come down heavily at times from late tonight through the morning hours on Thursday. In addition to the heavy rainfall, winds will become an important factor late tonight and on Thursday with gusts possible past 40 mph as warmer air surges northward along the eastern seaboard. Temperatures will rise in the overnight hours perhaps peaking well into the 50’s tomorrow morning, but will then drop sharply later tomorrow afternoon following the passage of a strong cold front.
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Heavy rain is on the way for the I-95 corridor in the time period from late tonight until early tomorrow afternoon. Milder air will surge northward along the eastern seaboard in the overnight hours and any evening rain activity will become steadier and heavier after midnight as temperatures slowly rise and winds pick up out of the southeast. Windy and unseasonably mild conditions will start the day on Thursday along with heavy rain at times, maybe even a rumble of thunder. Much colder air returns late tomorrow following the passage of a strong cold front and the 50 degrees early in the day will likely transition to the 30's by late in the day. It'll be quite cold on Friday and Saturday despite plenty of sunshine each day with temperatures well below-normal for this time of year.
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Strong high pressure will drift over the Mid-Atlantic region today and this will result in a much calmer day compared to Monday as the overall pressure gradient relaxes in the area. While still colder-than-normal, the cold weather today will be much easier to take as wind chills will no longer be a factor. Low pressure will push towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday and with this track to our west, milder air should push northward along the eastern seaboard. As a result, rain is likely to arrive here late tomorrow, but a few ice pellets or snowflakes cannot be ruled out at the onset. The rain continues into Thursday and then colder air arrives at the end of the storm. In fact, there is a chance for a changeover late Thursday from rain-to-snow as the colder air mass arrives.
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Brutal cold air poured into the Mid-Atlantic region yesterday on the heels of the powerful weekend storm and today will easily be the coldest day of the year so far. Temperatures today will struggle to climb through the lower teens and the strong NW winds will add to the pain generating much lower wind chill values. The next storm system of note will reach us at mid-week and is likely to produce another round of mixed bag of precipitation for the region.
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Arctic air will flood the Mid-Atlantic region today on the backside of departing low pressure which caused heavy rain in the I-95 corridor during the overnight hours. Temperatures will plunge from mid-day through the afternoon and any residual wet surfaces could quickly freeze potentially creating hazardous driving conditions. Single digit lows are likely throughout the I-95 corridor by early Monday and wind chills will make it feel painfully cold. The threat for scattered power outages later today and tonight cannot be ruled out as winds could gust past 40 mph or so.
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A significant winter storm will impact the Philly to NYC corridor from Saturday afternoon into Sunday with accumulating snow, ice and heavy rain. Snow should arrive during the mid-to-late afternoon hours on Saturday and continue into the early evening before transitioning to rain later tomorrow night. The rain can fall heavily at times tomorrow night and it can freeze on some surfaces for awhile in the far northern and western suburbs where temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing. On the backside of the storm, much colder air will pour into the region on Sunday and rain or a wintry mix early Sunday may end briefly as snow with only minor additional accumulations likely. As the Arctic air floods the region later Sunday, N-NW winds will intensify, temperatures will plunge and any slushy or wet surfaces may quickly ice-up. The plummet in temperatures will continue on Sunday night and overnight lows will likely be in the lower single digits come early Monday – easily the coldest day of the year so far - and afternoon highs will do no better than the teens.
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A significant winter storm will impact the region from Saturday afternoon into Sunday with accumulating snow and mixed precipitation of sleet and freezing rain. Snow should arrive during the late afternoon hours on Saturday and continue into early evening before transitioning to sleet and freezing rain later tomorrow night. The snow at the onset of this storm can rather quickly accumulate before the transition to anywhere from 3 to as much as 6 inches (north and west). On the backside of the storm, much colder air will pour into the region on Sunday and the wintry mix is likely to change back to snow before the precipitation winds down with minor additional accumulations possible. As the Arctic air floods the region later Sunday, N-NW winds will intensify, temperatures will plunge, and any residual wet or slushy surfaces will quickly ice-up. The plummet in temperatures will continue on Sunday night and lows will likely be in the lower single digits come early Monday – easily the coldest day of the year so far - and afternoon highs will do no better than the middle teens.
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