Unusually cold conditions will continue today in the Mid-Atlantic region and we’ll experience another day with noticeable winds and a possible snow shower or two. After partly cloudy skies this evening, clouds will tend to increase late tonight and snow may develop during the early-to-mid afternoon hours on Friday as low pressure pushes towards the North Carolina/Virginia coastline. The upper-level wave of energy that is supporting this next system will get somewhat “stretched out” over the next 24 hours, but it’ll remain potent enough to possibly generate small accumulations in the NYC metro region on Friday of a coating or so. A more important system in terms of total available moisture will head towards the Great Lakes this weekend and likely push precipitation into our area late Saturday night. While the bulk of this system will likely be in the form of rain in the I-95 corridor, there is a chance for some frozen precipitation at the onset; especially, in some of the colder suburban locations north and west of NYC. Temperatures can actually jump into the 50’s later Sunday, but it’ll then turn colder early next week following the passage of a strong cold front.
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A widespread outbreak of Arctic air continues to grip the nation and today may feel the worst in the Mid-Atlantic region as strong winds will produce wind chill values in the single digits at times. In addition to the unusual cold and wind, instability in the upper atmosphere is already generating snow shower activity in upstate Pennsylvania and New York and some of these can make it into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later today with an isolated snow squall even possible. The next low pressure system to monitor will trek across the nation over the next 48 hours and reach the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. Snow may break out in the I-95 corridor during the mid-day or afternoon hours on Friday and there can be some small accumulations from this system. Another system will bring mainly rain to the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday, but it may be cold enough at the onset for sleet and/or freezing rain in some interior higher elevation locations.
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The coldest core of this most recent Arctic air outbreak has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US following the overnight passage of a frontal system. As a result, temperatures today will be confined to the 20’s for highs – well below normal for early March – and strong winds will generate even lower wind chill values. In addition, instability in the atmosphere could result in some snow shower activity; primarily, during the mid-day and afternoon hours and there may even be an isolated snow squall. The next low pressure system of note to monitor will trek across the nation over the next couple of days and it can produce some snow here later Friday. The upper-level energy supporting this system will get somewhat “stretched out” over the next couple of days, but the chance for small snow accumulations is on the table for Friday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. A more important system will head towards the Great Lakes this weekend and likely push rain into the region by early Sunday and there is a chance for some frozen precipitation at the onset in some nearby higher elevation locations such as interior northern NJ and southeastern NY.
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A widespread outbreak of Arctic air has encompassed much of the nation and it will actually get worse in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US before it gets any better. Record or near record low temperatures extended across much of the nation both this morning and yesterday morning and there will no doubt be more record-breaking cold over the next couple of mornings. The next threat for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region comes on Friday, but it currently does not look like a significant event.
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An Arctic air mass has flooded the eastern half of the nation and the coldest air temperatures and strongest winds will take place on Wednesday. The next low pressure system to monitor will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday on the back end of this unusual cold spell and it could result in some snow. It’ll turn milder this weekend and an area of rain is likely to move into the eastern states on Sunday ahead of another cold frontal system.
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Strong low pressure is now heading away from the Mid-Atlantic coastline and our focus will shift from the winter storm to an influx of Arctic air which will be way below-normal for this time of year. Not only will colder-than-normal weather persist this week in the local region, but for much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation as well. Temperatures could bottom out near ten degrees this mid-week in many suburban locations. High pressure will build into the area on Tuesday and control the weather into the latter part of the new work week. There is the threat for more snow or rain at week's end.
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A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region from this afternoon into early Monday morning. Low pressure will intensify as it takes a track towards the southeastern Virginia coastline by later tonight and then it moves quite rapidly to a position off the southern New England coastline by early Monday. Significant snow accumulations are likely in many northern and western suburbs along I-95; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border. An Arctic air mass will flood the eastern half of the nation following the storm with way below-normal temperatures for the first full week of March.
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March has begun like a lion with cold and an active pattern and there is one more storm to deal with before an Arctic blast arrives and this storm may have the biggest impact of all. Storm #1 brought accumulating snow to much of the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday night, storm #2 brought snow and ice to many areas on Friday night, and the next storm is likely to begin on Sunday afternoon with the most potential of all as it will be loaded with moisture. The immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is going to be the “battle zone” region with significant snow accumulations to the north and west and mainly rain to the south and east.
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March has begun more like a lion than a lamb and there are two more storms to deal with over the next few days which can bring additional accumulating snow and ice to the Mid-Atlantic region. Storm #1 brought accumulating snow to the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and is now pushing off the coastline, but there will be no clearing behind it. In fact, storm #2 is already gathering strength in the Southeast US and its precipitation shield will expand noticeably later today as it gets invigorated by an upper-level wave of energy. This next storm can start as a wintry mix tonight and a transition to all snow is possible in the overnight hours; especially, to the north and west of I-95.
Storm #3 arrives on Sunday afternoon and has the greatest potential of all for a significant impact as it will be loaded with moisture. The immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is liable to be the “battle zone” region with significant snow accumulations possible to the north and west and mainly rain to the south and east. There is the potential for 6+ inches of snow to the north and west of Philly and NYC and perhaps even as far south as the far northern and western suburbs of DC - but some details still have to be ironed out. All of this activity will be followed by an Arctic outbreak for next week across much of the nation.
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March is coming in like a lion with overnight accumulating snow and two more storms are on the way. Low pressure is now heading towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it is bringing us round one of an extended precipitation event. That same low pressure system will hang around the Mid-Atlantic coastline during the remainder of today and it’ll get energized by early tonight as upper-level energy passes overhead. As a result, after a break for awhile in the precipitation, more rain, sleet and/or snow can fall early tonight and then likely transition to all snow late with additional accumulations of a couple inches possible. Yet another wintry precipitation event is headed to the NYC metro region for later Sunday into early Monday. This next system will have plenty of available moisture; consequently, a lot of potential, but it is unclear as to where the all-important rain/snow line may set up. Rain, sleet and/or snow can break out in the Mid-Atlantic region during the afternoon hours on Sunday and then possibly transition to all snow Sunday night with snow accumulations possible to the north and west of the metro area...stay tuned. All of this will be followed by Arctic cold for the first full week of March.
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