All the ingredients are coming together for rapid intensification today of low pressure as it pulls out of Colorado and moves into western Kansas. In fact, the central barometric pressure of this intensifying low pressure system could bottom out near 28.67 inches later today and some spots may very well reach record low levels; especially, across Colorado and Kansas. The combination of a strong “negatively-tilted” wave of energy in the upper atmosphere, sharp low-level temperature gradient, and powerful jet streaks in the atmosphere will help generate this powerhouse storm system that will have wide ranging impacts from blizzard conditions to its north and west to extreme winds and potential severe thunderstorms on its south and east side.
Wind gusts are likely to surpass hurricane-force levels later today in a wide part of the nation from New Mexico/Texas to southern Nebraska and perhaps even to 90+ mph in places like Colorado and Kansas. These extreme wind gusts are unfortunately likely to result in widespread power outages, downed or damaged trees and very difficult travel conditions. Blizzard warnings have been posted all the way from Colorado to Minnesota/North Dakota for the expected heavy snowfall and extremely strong winds.
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Clouds will increase later today as it turns a bit milder and the warm up will intensify on Thursday and Friday ahead of the next cold frontal system. Showers are likely to accompany the frontal system from late tomorrow night through Friday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed in. Following the frontal passage, it’ll turn colder this weekend and each weekend day should feature some sunshine.
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Colder air moved into the region late Monday and today will turn out to be a brisk and somewhat colder-than-normal day in the NYC metro region. After a clear and cold night, clouds will increase here later tomorrow and then it'll turn even milder on Thursday with a shower threat by nightfall. Showers are likely on Friday just ahead of a cold frontal passage with temperatures likely well up in the 60's and an isolated thunderstorm is on the table. The weekend looks dry from this vantage point, but it’ll turn colder following the late week passage of a cold frontal system.
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All in all, the upcoming week looks to be quieter than recent weeks and relatively mild except for perhaps a brief downturn on Tuesday. High pressure takes control of our weather pattern today following the passage of an overnight cold frontal system. The air mass for today will be relatively mild, but then it’ll turn cooler for Tuesday and a warm up begins on Wednesday. By the end of the work week, temperatures are likely to climb into the 60’s, but showers will be likely as the next cold front arrives.
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Weak low pressure will push across the Mid-Atlantic region today and its snow should stay south of here for the most part. Clouds will increase as a result of this system and there can be just a touch of late day or evening snow in some spots; primarily, to the south and southwest of the NYC metro region. After a dry day on Saturday, a more important system with more moisture will push rain into our region later tomorrow evening and it could start as a wintry mix in the normally colder higher elevation suburban locations. The rain will end early on Sunday and afternoon temperatures could end up not far from the 50 degree mark with breezy and mainly cloudy conditions. A strong cold frontal passage will usher in colder air on Monday and it'll stay moderately cold on Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere, another major snowstorm will take place this weekend in the Northern Plains and there will likely be another severe weather outbreak on Saturday across the Lower Mississippi Valley including possible tornadic activity.
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Arctic cold continues to have a grip on the Mid-Atlantic region and weak low pressure on Friday is likely to result in a mainly snow event for most areas and small accumulations are possible. Snow is likely to break out on Friday during the mid-day or early afternoon hours in the DC metro region and the early-to-mid afternoon hours in Philly as low pressure pushes towards the North Carolina/Virginia coastline. The NYC metro region may escape with little, if any, snowfall from this weak system on Friday. A more important storm with more available moisture will generate precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region late Saturday evening and it can be just cold enough at the onset in areas north of the PA/MD border for a period of freezing rain, sleet and/or snow before an ultimate changeover to plain rain. This same system will produce a major snowstorm in the Northern Plains on Saturday and possibly another severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi Valley. Later Sunday, temperatures can climb to 60 degrees in DC, 55 degrees in Philly, and 50 degrees in NYC ahead of a strong cold front which will usher in colder air for the early part of next week.
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Unusually cold conditions will continue today in the Mid-Atlantic region and we’ll experience another day with noticeable winds and a possible snow shower or two. After partly cloudy skies this evening, clouds will tend to increase late tonight and snow may develop during the early-to-mid afternoon hours on Friday as low pressure pushes towards the North Carolina/Virginia coastline. The upper-level wave of energy that is supporting this next system will get somewhat “stretched out” over the next 24 hours, but it’ll remain potent enough to possibly generate small accumulations in the NYC metro region on Friday of a coating or so. A more important system in terms of total available moisture will head towards the Great Lakes this weekend and likely push precipitation into our area late Saturday night. While the bulk of this system will likely be in the form of rain in the I-95 corridor, there is a chance for some frozen precipitation at the onset; especially, in some of the colder suburban locations north and west of NYC. Temperatures can actually jump into the 50’s later Sunday, but it’ll then turn colder early next week following the passage of a strong cold front.
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A widespread outbreak of Arctic air continues to grip the nation and today may feel the worst in the Mid-Atlantic region as strong winds will produce wind chill values in the single digits at times. In addition to the unusual cold and wind, instability in the upper atmosphere is already generating snow shower activity in upstate Pennsylvania and New York and some of these can make it into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later today with an isolated snow squall even possible. The next low pressure system to monitor will trek across the nation over the next 48 hours and reach the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. Snow may break out in the I-95 corridor during the mid-day or afternoon hours on Friday and there can be some small accumulations from this system. Another system will bring mainly rain to the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday, but it may be cold enough at the onset for sleet and/or freezing rain in some interior higher elevation locations.
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The coldest core of this most recent Arctic air outbreak has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US following the overnight passage of a frontal system. As a result, temperatures today will be confined to the 20’s for highs – well below normal for early March – and strong winds will generate even lower wind chill values. In addition, instability in the atmosphere could result in some snow shower activity; primarily, during the mid-day and afternoon hours and there may even be an isolated snow squall. The next low pressure system of note to monitor will trek across the nation over the next couple of days and it can produce some snow here later Friday. The upper-level energy supporting this system will get somewhat “stretched out” over the next couple of days, but the chance for small snow accumulations is on the table for Friday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. A more important system will head towards the Great Lakes this weekend and likely push rain into the region by early Sunday and there is a chance for some frozen precipitation at the onset in some nearby higher elevation locations such as interior northern NJ and southeastern NY.
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A widespread outbreak of Arctic air has encompassed much of the nation and it will actually get worse in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US before it gets any better. Record or near record low temperatures extended across much of the nation both this morning and yesterday morning and there will no doubt be more record-breaking cold over the next couple of mornings. The next threat for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region comes on Friday, but it currently does not look like a significant event.
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