It’ll turn warmer today ahead of an approaching cool front and there will be an increase in humidity. A couple of showers are likely this afternoon and a late day or evening thunderstorm is possible as well. Following the front, humidity will lower on Thursday and temperatures will again be cooler-than-normal for this time of year and quite comfortable. High pressure looks like it’ll control the weather through much of the upcoming Labor Day weekend and temperatures will remain pretty comfortable for the end of August and beginning of September on Sunday.
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It’ll remain quite comfortable today and then turn warmer and more humid on Wednesday ahead of the next cool front. That front can result in a couple of showers tomorrow afternoon and maybe a late day or evening thunderstorm. It'll turn less humid again on Thursday following the frontal passage and high pressure should ensure us a pretty decent end to the work week and start to the long, holiday weekend.
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After a quiet start to the month in terms of Atlantic Basin tropical activity, the last week of August is beginning with one tropical system over the western Atlantic Ocean and a tropical storm nearing the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Dorian is fast approaching the Windward Islands and it could become a hurricane once over the warm waters of the eastern Caribbean. There is currently some dry air over the Caribbean Sea out ahead of Tropical Storm Dorian which could limit its intensification prospects later in the week and its ultimate track will be quite crucial. A track over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola Island, for example, would likely weaken the system, but that is not a certainty at this point. Finally, the eventual path and intensification of the initial tropical system over the western Atlantic could, in turn, have an impact on TS Dorian depending on its movement and development in coming days.
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High pressure moving off the New England coastline will continue to provide us with comfortable temperature and humidity levels as we begin the new work week along with partly sunny skies. After a decent day on Tuesday, it’ll turn warmer on Wednesday ahead of another cold frontal system and there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, a tropical system off the east coast will continue to push to the northeast over the next couple days and it could intensify into tropical storm status. Tropical Storm ‘Dorian’ has picked up slightly in intensity during the past 24 hours as it closes in on the Windward Islands and eastern Caribbean. Its maximum sustained winds are now up to 60 mph with movement to the west at 14 mph.
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A refreshing air mass for this time of year has arrived and the cold front that ushered in this change it is only slowing grinding its way through the region. As a result, occasional showers will continue this afternoon in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and some of the rain can come down hard at times. There can also be an embedded thunderstorm or two along the frontal boundary zone; primarily, to the south of the PA/MD border.
On the tropical scene, low pressure just east of the Upper Florida Keys at mid-day will slowly drift west over the next day or so which will move it over the Florida Peninsula and this should limit development. After that, this tropical system should push back to the northeast and over the western Atlantic where sea surface temperatures are running at warmer-than-normal levels. Consequently, this system should intensify later in the weekend and into the early part of next week - perhaps becoming the next named tropical storm or even a hurricane.
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A much more refreshing air mass will arrive today in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll stay comfortable right into the early part of next week. As the cold front only slowly grinds its way through the area today, there will additional showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm or two. Highs today will be confined to the 70's and it’ll turn refreshingly cool by early tomorrow morning with many spots recording lows in the upper 50’s. On the tropical scene, low pressure near the Bahamas this morning will meander off the eastern seaboard over the next couple of days. Given the warm waters in that part of the western Atlantic Ocean, tropical storm formation is on the table by early next week and it would be named 'Dorian'.
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There is a refreshing air mass headed our way for this weekend and there are signs that there could be a repeat performance for next (Labor Day) weekend as well with both air masses backed up by strong high pressure to the north and west. The transition from today’s warmth and high humidity to below-normal temperatures will likely come with one more round of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms as the cold from arrives late this evening. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Friday as the front grinds its way through the region, but late tomorrow and much of the weekend will feature drier weather and comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.
On the tropical scene, low pressure will meander off the eastern seaboard over the next several days and given the warm waters in that part of the western Atlantic, tropical storm formation is not out of the question. Later next week or during the Labor Day weekend, there are signs for some potential activity over the Gulf of Mexico where sea surface temperatures are quite warm as well.
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A much more refreshing air mass will arrive here on Friday and it'll stay around all weekend with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. The transition to the below-normal temperatures will come with more rain perhaps late today, but more likely holding off until tonight and some of it can be heavy at times. As the cold front grinds its way through the region on Friday, there still can be a few showers or storms around early in the day, but some sun is likely later tomorrow and refreshingly cool conditions will be felt tomorrow night. The weekend will feature sunshine on both days to go along with the comfortable temperatures and humidity values, but a shower or two cannot be ruled out.
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There is a much cooler air mass headed this way for Friday, Saturday and Sunday and it’ll be an active stretch of weather in the Mid-Atlantic as we make that transition from today’s heat and humidity to the weekend comfort. There is a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeast US as a surface low pressure trough will combine with high humidity and upper-level energy to destabilize the atmosphere later in the day. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue from Thursday/Thursday night into Friday as a strong cool front only slowly grinds its way through the region. Elsewhere, a minimal tropical storm (Chantal) has formed out over the open Atlantic Ocean and is no threat to the US; however, another system now near the Bahamas will have to be closely monitored in the coming week or so.
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An active weather pattern will bring us the chance for strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and early tonight - any one of which can produce heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts and hail. A trough of low pressure in the lower atmosphere will combine with upper-level energy later today to generate very unstable conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region. A strong cool front will approach the region from the northwest later tomorrow and slowly grind its way through the region on Friday. As a result, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Thursday and Thursday night and into the last day of the work week. In addition, much cooler air will push into the region on Friday anchored by high pressure to the north and west and it'll stay quite comfortable on both weekend days although perhaps somewhat unsettled at times.
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