A cool front passed through the area last night and strong high pressure to our north will take control of the weather today and help to keep temperatures confined to much cooler levels in the lower 70's for afternoon highs. It’ll turn warmer on Saturday as the front turns around and moves north as a warm front and there can be some shower and thunderstorm activity as a result. High pressure will then build back into the region and Sunday and much of next week looks rain-free with high pressure in control. Meanwhile, the tropical scene remains quite active today with multiple systems to monitor. One system over the Bahamas this morning is likely to strengthen as it heads slowly towards Florida over the next couple of days and a batch of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may organize as it moves westward. In addition, two tropical waves now exist in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and the front running system will likely push into the eastern Caribbean Sea in several days and will have to be closely watched.
One final note, this happens to be Friday the 13th and only about 1% of full moons fall on a Friday the 13th. This one is even rarer as it is occurring near apogee, the farthest point in the moon's orbit. This hasn't happened since 1832 and won't happen again for more than 500 years.
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A cool front will drift towards the region later today raising the chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms and then it’ll turn cooler late tonight following its passage. We’ll be much cooler on Friday with highs confined to the lower 70’s, but the cool down will only be temporary. We’ll climb back to the 80’s later this weekend and it looks like it’ll stay pretty warm for much of next week as well. On the active tropical scene, one system is likely to enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and it’ll produce some locally heavy rain and gusty winds in the Bahamas and Florida on its way to that location. There is a second tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic and it may become a threat to the Caribbean/Bahamas/SE US in a week to ten days or so.
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High pressure has moved offshore and this will allow for a warmup that will bring high temperatures into the mid-to-upper 80's this afternoon and to the lower 80's on Thursday. A cool front will drift towards the region over the next day or so raising the chance for showers and thunderstorms; especially, during the PM hours It’ll turn cooler on Friday following the frontal passage and then the weekend turns warmer again with somewhat unsettled conditions. On the tropical scene, there are three different waves lined up in the Atlantic right now as we arrive at the climatological peak of the tropical season. The first system should head to the Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend and will have to be monitored, the second wave has little chance of survival, and the third wave may very well become an important issue for the SE US/Gulf of Mexico region in about ten days or so...stay tuned.
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High pressure will move offshore later today and this will allow for a mid-week warmup that will bring afternoon highs closer to the 90 degree mark. A cool front will drift towards the region over the next couple of days raising the chance for showers and thunderstorms; especially, on Thursday afternoon. It’ll turn cooler at the end of the week following the frontal passage and high pressure will build back into the region. On the tropical scene, there are three different waves to monitor as we arrive at the climatological peak in the Atlantic Basin tropical season, but no imminent threat to the Mid-Atlantic.
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The eye of Hurricane Dorian passed over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, earlier today which makes it the the first (and only) landfall by this storm on the US mainland. It made landfall on the Outer Banks as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 90 mph and is the first landfall by a hurricane in North Carolina since Arthur in 2014. The storm has begun an acceleration to the northeast in recent hours as it is increasingly being influenced by an approaching upper-level trough. There is still some impact being felt in coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England where heavy rain bands are rotating around Hurricane Dorian.
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An approaching upper-level trough of low pressure now crossing the Great Lakes will cause Hurricane Dorian to accelerate to the northeast later today and well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic region. The storm is now near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and has weakened in the overnight hours to category 1 status with max sustained winds at 90 mph. Some rain and wind can extend back to the I-95 corridor later today, but the bigger impacts will take place along coastal sections of Long Island and Connecticut where heavier rain bands will take place along with 40-50 mph wind gusts from a northeasterly direction. Coastal flooding is a threat at time of high tide later this afternoon. The weekend is shaping up to be quite nice throughout the Mid-Atlantic region with very comfortable temperatures and humidity levels for the early part of September and plenty of sunshine each day.
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Hurricane Dorian has regained some strength in the overnight hours and has been re-classified as a “major” category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. It is moving slowly to the NNE at 8 mph and is currently just off the coast of South Carolina. There will be a major impact over the next 24 hours by Hurricane Dorian in the coastal Carolinas in places like Charleston, South Carolina and Wilmington and the Outer Banks in North Carolina. By mid-day Friday, Hurricane Dorian will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it will become increasingly influenced by an advancing upper-level trough over the Great Lakes. As a result, Hurricane Dorian will accelerate to the northeast on Friday and pass well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic, but some impacts are likely that will in many ways resemble a “nor’easter” with the greatest impacts along coastal sections. Looking ahead, by no means does it look like the Atlantic Basin tropical season will slow down with the departure of Hurricane Dorian as numerous tropical waves are lining up over the continent of Africa.
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Hurricane Dorian has regained enough strength in the overnight hours to be re-classifed as a "major" (category 3) storm. It is moving slowly to the north at only 8 mph near the coastline of South Carolina with maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. Hurricane Dorian will have a significant impact today and tonight on the coastal Carolinas in places like Charleston, South Carolina and Wilmington and the Outer Banks in North Carolina. On Friday, Hurricane Dorian will become increasingly influenced by an advancing trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes and this will cause it to accelerate to the northeast and well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic region. However, its impact will still be felt in the Mid-Atlantic on Friday as Hurricane Dorian becomes "post-tropical" and, in many ways, it'll be just like a "nor'easter". There will be some rain and wind across the region on Friday with the greatest impacts of the storm along coastal sections of Long Island and Connecticut where tropical storm force (northeast direction) winds of 30-50 mph are possible and there can be some coastal flooding as well. All of this clears out of here by the weekend which should be very comfortable for this time of year.
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Hurricane Dorian remains a category 2 storm at midday and it has picked up a bit of forward speed now moving NNW at 9 mph with 105 mph maximum sustained winds and a central pressure of 964 millibars. Gusty squalls are rotating around Hurricane Dorian and impacting much of the coastal region in northeastern Florida as well as coastal sections of Georgia, South and North Carolina. Hurricane Dorian is likely to at least maintain its category 2 strength as it moves closer to the Carolina coastline and it very well could undergo some intensification as it heads over warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and leaves “upwelling-induced” cooler water behind. By early Friday, Hurricane Dorian will move to a position over the Outer Banks (NC) and will become increasingly influenced by an advancing trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. This upper-level feature will cause it to accelerate to the northeast passing well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday, but important impacts are still on the table for coastal sections.
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Hurricane Dorian is now about 90 miles east of Daytona Beach, Florida moving to the NNW at 8 mph with max sustained winds at 105 mph (category 2). It will parallel the northeast coastline of Florida today and then move towards the coastlines of Georgia and the Carolinas. By later tomorrow, Hurricane Dorian will head right over the Outer Banks of North Carolina and will begin to be influenced by an upper-level trough of low pressure pushing southeast across the Great Lakes. As a result, Hurricane Dorian will begin to accelerate to the northeast and should slide well east of the Mid-Atlantic region late tomorrow night and Friday. Much cooler air will arrive here tomorrow following possible strong thunderstorms later today and tonight and the pleasant air mass will stick around for the upcoming weekend.
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