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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

7:00 AM | *Our dry weather pattern of recent days comes to an end this weekend/early next week*

Paul Dorian

Our dry weather pattern of recent days will come to an end this weekend with two systems bringing us a chance of showers and thunderstorms.  On Saturday, moisture associated with a low pressure system that formed yesterday over the northern Gulf of Mexico will push northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region. While not a total washout, showers can pop up at just about any time on Saturday and there can be a thunderstorm to along with somewhat cooler conditions.  The next system of note will be a cold front to our west that will push through the region from late Sunday into Monday and this too can bring us some shower and thunderstorm activity.  It turns cooler early next week following the passage of the cold front. 

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7:00 AM | *Dry weather through tomorrow, but rain threat returns here this weekend*

Paul Dorian

High pressure off the east coast continues to be the dominant player in the Mid-Atlantic region and it will produce dry weather here through Friday.  Meanwhile, low pressure has formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico and its moisture field will push northeastward through the southeastern states by the weekend. In fact, this system looks like it will increase chances here for showers by Saturday and then a cold front moving this way from our west will likely generate additional showers from Sunday night into Monday.  Cooler air will follow the cold frontal passage for the early part of next week. 

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7:00 AM | *Warmest weather so far this season for the second half of the week*

Paul Dorian

High pressure off the east coast continues to be the dominant player in the Mid-Atlantic region and it will provide more dry weather right through the end of the work week.  Temperatures will climb to 80 degrees today and then into the 80’s on Thursday and Friday. The weather becomes more unsettled this weekend with the possible return of shower activity and cooler air will likely move into the area early next week.

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7:00 AM | *The 80's are on the way for later in the week*

Paul Dorian

It continues to look like a quiet and dry week in the Mid-Atlantic region that will become increasingly warm.  High pressure has shifted to a position off the east coast and southwesterly winds on its back side will pump in warmer air to the eastern states. Temperatures this afternoon will reach the middle 70’s and then likely climb well up into the 80’s later this week.  A cold front will bring some unsettled weather to the area this weekend with the return of a chance for showers.

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7:00 AM | *An increasingly warm week with the 80's on the way*

Paul Dorian

It looks a relatively quiet and dry week in the Mid-Atlantic region that will become increasingly warm.  High pressure shifts to a position off the coast over the next day or so and southwesterly winds on its back side will pump in warmer air to the eastern states.  Temperatures this afternoon will reach the middle 60’s and are likely to climb to well up into the 80’s later in the week.

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7:00 AM | *Chilly air mass moves in for the weekend*

Paul Dorian

It’ll turn noticeably cooler today following the passage of the strong cold frontal system with quite a chilly air mass moving for the weekend. In fact, temperatures should bottom out in the 30’s during each of the next few nights. High pressure that originated in Canada will take control of the weather as we head into the weekend and there may be some clouds on Saturday, but more in the way of sunshine for Easter Sunday. Looking ahead, a pattern change will likely result in a warm air surge across the eastern states by the mid and latter parts of next week.

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7:00 AM | **Strong cold front arrives late today and there can be a strong-to-severe thunderstorms in some spots**

Paul Dorian

It’ll remain warm today ahead of an approaching cold front and the chance of showers will increase in the afternoon…maybe even a late day/early evening strong-to-severe thunderstorm. The best chance for a strong-to-severe thunderstorm will likely end up being just to the south of here in central and southern New Jersey. It’ll turn cooler on Friday following the passage of the cold frontal system with a chilly air mass moving into the northeastern states. High pressure with its origins in Canada will take control of the weather and there may be only limited sunshine on Saturday, but plenty on Sunday.

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10:45 AM (Wed) | ***Severe weather today extends from Texas to the Great Lakes…strong cold front reaches eastern seaboard later Thursday with a strong-to-severe thunderstorm threat***

Paul Dorian

A line of thunderstorms extends this morning all the way from Texas to the central Great Lakes and tornado watches as issued by the National Weather Service encompass this entire zone. This severe weather outbreak represents just the latest in a series of recent “clashes” in the atmosphere between cold, dry air to the west charging into warm, humid air to the east.  Strong surface low pressure over the northwestern Great Lakes is generating blizzard conditions across the Dakotas and a powerful surface cold front extends from the center all the way south into the northern Gulf region. This same cold front reaches the eastern seaboard later Thursday and while certainly not as widespread of a threat as today, there is the chance for some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity near the coast. Following the passage of the cold front, a chilly Canadian-borne air mass will push into the Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic for the upcoming Easter weekend.

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7:00 AM | **After a cooler day, it'll turn much warmer tomorrow ahead of an incoming strong cold front...chance for showers on Thursday and even a late day strong thunderstorm**

Paul Dorian

It’ll turn out cooler today in the NYC metro region as an easterly flow of air developed following the passage of a “backdoor” frontal system.  There will also be plenty of clouds around today with the chance for a bit of light rain or drizzle from time-to-time. The weather becomes much warmer again on Thursday ahead of an approaching strong surface cold front from the Ohio Valley. There will be an increasing chance of showers on Thursday and perhaps even a late day or evening strong-to-severe thunderstorm.  It’ll turn cooler on Friday following the passage of the frontal system with a chilly air mass moving into the northeastern states. High pressure with its origins in Canada will take control of the weather for the weekend and there should be some sunshine on both days; however, it’ll feel quite cool in the shade or during the nighttime hours.

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10:00 AM (Tuesday) | ***Severe weather outbreak next couple days likely to include numerous tornadoes… significant snow in the cold sector…strong storms possible near east coast on Thursday***

Paul Dorian

One of the key ingredients in this upcoming severe weather outbreak will be the intensification of an upper-level jet (300 mb) which will combine with an low-level jet (850 mb) to generate deep-layer wind shear in the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Overview

There have been back-to-back weeks with severe weather outbreaks in the US and another one is on the way. Severe weather including the threat for tornadoes is likely from later today into the overnight hours across the Mississippi Valley and then the risk shifts to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.  One of the key ingredients for the severe weather outbreak will be a strong surface cold front and it reaches the east coast later Thursday and there can be strong-to-severe storms in that region as well.  Other ingredients include multiple jet streaks in the atmosphere which will enhance the chance for rotation and tornadic activity.  In the cold sector of the storm, significant snow is going to fall during the next couple of days from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. Looking ahead, this may be the end of the severe weather outbreaks for awhile warm air may finally flood the central and eastern states later next week.

One of the key ingredients in this upcoming severe weather outbreak will be the intensification of a low-level jet (850 mb) which will combine with an upper-level jet (300 mb) to generate deep-layer wind shear in the atmosphere. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

Details

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes from later today into the overnight hours across the Mississippi Valley region from Iowa/Illinois to the north and eastern Texas/Louisiana in the south. In much the same manner as with recent severe weather outbreaks, a vigorous upper-level trough will help to spawn cyclogenesis in the middle of the nation at the same time high-level ridging intensifies over the eastern states.  An intensifying upper-level jet streak (southwesterly) will push into the Great Plains and then the Mississippi Valley region and a low-level jet (southerly) will become involved as well.  The combination of these two jet streaks will lead to deep-layer wind shear in the warm sector of the surface low pressure system potentially leading to supercells capable of producing tornadoes. In addition, torrential rain and hail will be on the table with this severe weather outbreak.

Severe weather is a threat from later today into the overnight hours across much of the Mississippi Valley region and this risk will shift to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Midwest on Wednesday. Map courtesy NOAA/Storm Prediction Center

By tomorrow, the threat of severe weather will shift slightly to the east with thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes extending from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley and southwestward back into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the cold front pushes to the east on Wednesday, the cold and dry air mass on its backside will clash with warm and humid air all the way up into the Great Lakes region from the Gulf of Mexico.  This same front will push towards the eastern seaboard on Thursday and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor later in the day or early Thursday night. 

The cold front clears the east coast by Friday and sets the stage for quieter weather in the northeastern states on Friday and through the upcoming Easter weekend. It will turn cooler on Friday with a chilly air mass moving into the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic anchored by high pressure with its origins in Canada. There should be plenty of sunshine on both days; however, it’ll feel quite cool in the shade or during the nights. Looking ahead, there are signs for a widespread warm air surge later next week into the central and eastern US - eliminating that “battleground” region in the middle of the country - and this could very well make this upcoming severe weather outbreak the last one in an extended period of time.

There will be significant accumulating snow over the next couple of days in the cold sector of this storm from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

One final note, this unfolding weather pattern will not only produce numerous tornadoes from later today into Wednesday in the latest in a series of severe weather outbreaks, it is likely to also result in significant accumulating snow. Specifically, the region from the Rockies to the Dakotas/northern Minnesota will see some substantial snowfall during the next 72 hours or so with as much as 1-2 feet in some locations. Ultimately, the accumulating snow will reach the northern part of New England with Maine, for example, likely to receive several inches by late in the week.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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